The Business Model of Immortality — Get a drip, Ambrosia and other false idols
Breaking down the growing industry of prolonging life
Imagine never growing older — you could turn back your biological clock or preserve your physical peak. Your beauty, intelligence, health, energy and cognitive intensity could all be retained and you never need fear ageing.
Rejuvenation and immortality have long been the desire for humans probably as long as we acknowledged self-awareness. Even the earliest known work of great literature, the ‘Epic of Gilgamesh’ features a quest for immortality.
Like most people, this topic piques my interest. More and more I am coming across companies who go as far to report that cancer, illness and physical degeneration are merely secondary to ageing (I'll get to you soon Elizabeth Parrish) and we should instead be focusing on that. It all feels a bit like snake-oil, but with all our scientific advancements and stories of gene editing, a part of us may feel somebody might have ‘cracked’ this ageing ‘problem’.
Of course, there is little to no evidence to support any of these claims today. I thought it would be fun to look at one startup which has been making headlines recently appropriately named ‘Ambrosia’ — a service allowing you to receive blood transfusions from young donors which claim to preserve and restore your youth. There is no reality in this claim.
The researchers of the study which inspired the Stanford medical dropout (Jesse Karmazin) to start a company based on this idea, go as far as stating it is putting people’s lives at risk. The FDA recently released a statement putting an end to such businesses, “Such treatments have no proven clinical benefits for the uses for which these clinics are advertising them and are potentially harmful.” Peter Thiel (self-confessed ‘non-vampire’ and venture capitalist) may need to rethink this business opportunity.
But for the sake of this exercise, let’s entertain the idea that this even remotely works — what would a lean canvas for this business model look like?
Lean Canvas Takedown
The Problem
- Ageing can lead to a declining quality of life significantly impacted by poor health, organ degeneration and cognitive decline
- Death is correlated with ageing
- Psychological distress associated with ageing and death anxiety
- Social isolation and stigma associated with ageing
- Western youth-oriented culture places an emphasis on independence and self-reliance — often lost with age
It seems that most of us in Western culture would do whatever it takes to prevent ageing — wrinkle creams, hair dyes, supplements, and even plastic surgery are commonplace. What is it that keeps us searching for the fountain of youth? Health issues aside, it’s hard to miss that our culture has a negative depiction of ageing.
“There’s so much shame in our culture around ageing and death,” said Koshin Paley Ellison, co-founder of the New York Zen Center for Contemplative Care. “As people approach old age they frequently feel that there’s something wrong with them and that they’re losing value.”
Ageing in many ways is a perfect customer problem — it affects us biologically, psychologically and socially. Any product aiming to solve one of these problems would be enough, but solving all three is a practical miracle.
Customer Segments
- Wealthy individuals over the age of 35
- People with gerascophobia (fear of ageing)
The more painful the problem, the more likely people are going to pay to make it go away. ageing in many ways is the ultimate problem/pain point people will face during their lifetimes, so it makes sense that it should have a price tag to match.
This makes wealthy people over the age of 35 an ideal target customer. People with a fear of ageing (gerascophobia) would also be a good segment — if the rejuvenation claims are to be believed (they should not) people may end up investing most of their money into a service like this.
Solution
- Provide a service transfusing blood from young donors to clients
So, we want to help people live longer, happier and healthier lives through biological rejuvenation. Our method of choice — transfusing the blood plasma of the young into older members of our society.
To pull this off we are going to need a source of some healthy young people, set up a clinic, employ some medical professionals and take blood donations. This blood will be sent to a laboratory for screening, cataloguing and processing (we only want the plasma) then sent for storage.
When a customer comes in we need to do a blood test then assess their suitability for transfusion. An appropriate blood sample will be selected for the client, defrosted and transfused by a medical professional. The customer then sets up an appointment for their next transfusion.
Unfair Advantage
- Clinical evidence that transfusion from young blood plasma improves health
- No fear of legal or ethical repercussions
- Branding
You’d think that after the Theranos scandal people would like some evidence with any business making health claims (you know as they did in the 1900s with evidence-based medicine). Your unfair advantage here is getting first to market with a clinically proven solution. Now, you could try your luck and employ a narcissistic approach with limited evidence to get that first-mover advantage, but it’s very likely the FDA is going to shut you down before you get the chance. Balsy, but not too smart unless you leverage it as an opportunity to promote your brand further.
The brand is key point here. Assuming any of this works you have done the hard work to pave the way for your competition to step into the market. Hospitals, private clinical, blood banks, pharmacies or any business with national outlets and access to blood banks are going to be able to step into this market quickly. Differentiating yourself is going to rely heavily on the brand in the early days and quality of product later.
I eagerly await the results of Ambroasia’s clinical human trials, but even in the event of a successful one, I would personally hold out for a repeat trial by an independent laboratory.
Revenue Streams
- $8,000 — $12,000 dollars per blood transfusion
Yup, 1 litre of young blood for $8,000, or 2 litres for $12,000. Looks like this will be primarily aimed as a direct business to consumer (B2C) model initially but there could be business to business opportunities (B2B). In a similar way that businesses are investing in gyms and fitness trackers for their employees to minimise sick days, why not offer some young blood to keep everyone young, fit and healthy. It could be a great employee perk to differentiate your business from the competition, and the best part — employees may be reluctant to change jobs and risk ageing themselves out of the workplace. This could help improve employee retention and reduce those pesky recruiter fees.
Business Cost Structure
- Blood donors fees
- Blood testing
- Blood processing
- Blood storage
- Transport
- Clinical staff for transfusions
- General business admin costs
There are quite a lot of moving parts to make this business model work. If you can’t broker a deal with your local blood bank you may need to take on those responsibilities and costs yourself. Dealing in biological products is not cheap, but thankfully, in this case, frozen blood plasma if handled properly can last up to a year. You still need to pay for storage fees though.
Clinical staff are likely to be a big cost unless you can train specialised technicians to withdraw and administer the blood products.
Unfortunately, all these real-world costs mean that you are unlikely to see exponential revenue growth even at scale unless you start to cut corners or raise prices. Revenue is directly linked to scale and market penetration.
Key Metrics
- Number of blood transfusions per month
More blood transfusion, more revenue.
Final Thoughts
From Adrian
I personally believe we are going to see a big growth in the rejuvenation industry within the coming years. There are people willing to take risks, something with their own health to make claims for everything from preventing muscular degeneration, telomere extension to boosting intelligence. Combine that with a culture which celebrates youth, productivity and success and we are in for some interesting times ahead.
I remember reading How to biohack your intelligence — with everything from sex to modafinil to MDMA, about a year ago which really opened my eyes to the world of self-confessed biohacking. How did we get to the point where we feel the need to risk our own health to feel in control and validate our self worth?
This will become the new normal, and it echoes from a place of relative deprivation perpetuated by media and a culture of high risk, high reward. We should all take some time to reflect on any risks we take for success, be they biological, psychological or social — is it always worth it? Even if you live forever, without finding a sense of inner satisfaction we will always be slaves to our mortality.
From Jenny
I am a firm believer in that the longer people live the slower the progress becomes. Especially when it’s people in prominent positions of power and/or influence.
Look at Karl Lagerfeld — the man should have died in the 80’s however he stuck around for the extra 30 years doing more damage to his industry in the way he prioritized talent of white men over male and female models. In his view, the real tragedy of the MeToo movement is when a white man cannot exercise their talents. And in the way he felt he has to share his opinions when no one asks for them or cares, he famously called Adel too fat for his clothes even when she showed no signs of wanting to wear them
Essentially him being around for an extra 30 years meant that the industry around him stalled. His contributions to fashion in the last 30 years where misogyny, Islamophobia, body shaming and let us not forget the atrocity of his own name brand.
Imagine if someone like Peter Thiel and his political, misogynist, and racist views sticks around forever.
So with everything in mind I am actually a massive supporter of fads and snake oil sales companies like Ambrosia, if the old fools are that desperate to stay alive might as well bleed their bank accounts dry.
