Bielsa’s Leeds are more than a team of overachievers
I recently read an article on Sky Sports, where a panel of six pundits put forward their choices for the Championship manager of the season. Half of the stated cases went in favour of Sabri Lamouchi, while the remaining three votes went to Slaven Bilic, Thomas Frank and Marcelo Bielsa.
While merely a drop in the ocean of football debate — and with the votes only offering a few sentences in evidence — the article did lead me to wonder how Leeds’ season may be remembered in both the immediate and longer term, particularly against the backdrop of Bielsa’s coaching career.
“First of all, I can’t say I’m a successful head coach. I’d rather say the opposite,” Bielsa said in February 2019. “One of the things you hear the most when people talk about me is the lack of trophies. You can verify this.”
Where would a second tier promotion fit in the scheme of Bielsa’s career? And if we can even contemplate the possibility that Leeds might not be promoted this season, would Bielsa’s detractors welcome another ‘failure’ in England to a career largely absent of tangible honours?
With this in mind, I decided to go back and try to find where Leeds’ 2019–20 performance fits within recent Championship history. Although nine games remain and there is much left to be decided, I wanted to know if Leeds’ season was projected to be an achievement in isolation, or maybe exceptional in wider terms. And if it was to be the latter, is it possible the extent of Bielsa’s work is being undervalued?
As plenty of fans are happy to point out against football analysis — specifically in the case of analytics — goals are the only stat that matters. If you’re reading this article and don’t disagree, you might think points totals are the only way in which we can compare team performance.
Brighton finished 3rd in the Championship in 2016 after averaging 1.93 points per game; Leeds are averaging 1.92 per game this season. Surely, Brighton were the better side?
Rather than trying to assess Leeds’ performance in historical terms over many decades — of which can only realistically be attempted based on results — this article will use a shorter period to look at Championship sides from a more performance-based view. Using detailed data over the previous six seasons (including 2019–20), instead of looking to standalone points totals we can explore more precise themes relating to their styles and effectiveness.
Who created the best goal-scoring chances?
Who conceded the fewest goal-scoring chances?
Who combined the art of both in the strongest fashion?
Since the 2014–15 season, 15 sides have won promotion from the Championship. This group is populated by a range of differing approaches to the game, from the likes of Eddie Howe’s free-scoring Bournemouth to Nuno Espírito Santo’s impassable Wolves. Within this, we’ll also include the next two teams from this season with the highest promotion odds (West Brom and Fulham).
Allowing ourselves the indulgence to pit Leeds against these successful sides (well, the Whites are currently 1/66 to be promoted on SkyBet), the scene looks exceedingly good, both in terms of getting over the line to promotion as well as their placing among the best teams in recent Championship history.
The first way in which Leeds differ from the large majority of these sides is their level of ball control. Bielsa’s side have averaged 65% possession in the Championship this season, which is considerably higher than any other team in our data range since 2014–15. While high possession rates tell us little about the success of a team in isolation, those who are able to use it as a vehicle to combine creating chances and limiting opposition chances can become formidable teams in the modern game.
With the help of Opta’s Expected Goals data (xG), the extent to which Leeds have achieved that this season is easily evidenced. 68% of the total xG in Leeds’ games this season has been in favour of the Whites; the highest such figure of any team profiled.
Expected Goals (xG): The quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance
In other words, this season’s Leeds team have controlled the share of chances created and conceded to a higher degree than each of the previous 15 teams to win promotion to the Premier League — even the likes of Wolves who won the league with 99 points in 2017–18.
Swapping out Expected Goals for ‘Big Chances’ — another metric from Opta — the results paint a similar picture in favour of Bielsa’s side. Leeds’ 73% share of big chances in their games is second only to Wolves in 2017–18 (74%).
Big Chance: A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter.
In the run up to his arrival at Leeds, the stereotype of Marcelo Bielsa from outside often suggested an unhinged nature. His style of coaching was accused of being erratic and leading to unpredictable scenes, particularly in a defensive sense. Detractors pointed towards his short tenures at clubs and the speed at which his projects could unravel, as if he lacked the ability to make any sort of move that wasn’t putting all of his chips on the table at once.
As Steve Evans so eloquently put, “will (Bielsa) know what it’s like going to the New York Stadium in Rotherham on a Tuesday night and trying to get a result? I’m not so sure.”
Of course, the less said about that soundbite the better. However it did come from a line of thinking which wasn’t uncommon within the media at the time of Bielsa’s arrival. While the Argentine would be seen as perfectly capable of making Leeds an exciting, watchable side, the idea that he could simultaneously make them a defensive force was barely a consideration.
Drawing back to our pool of 18 teams — the previous 15 promoted Championship teams, plus this current season’s top three — Leeds’ present day numbers have them on track to be one of the league’s most accomplished defensive units. Bielsa’s side have been stifling when it comes to preventing shots from the opposition, allowing just 9.1 per game in the Championship this season; fewer than any of the other 17 teams profiled.
With an Expected Goals against (xG) figure of just 0.93 per game, Leeds have also ensured that their opposition’s modest number of attempts haven’t included an excessive number of high quality chances. Only two of the previous 15 promoted Championship sides have conceded fewer Expected Goals per game than Leeds this season — Wolves in 2017–18 and Hull in 2015–16 (both 0.88).
The Whites’ defensive achievements should also be valued with the team’s style of play in mind. As a team who attack freely and constantly takes risks with their positioning to put pressure on the opposition, it is testament to the organisation of the team that they’ve maintained such a strong defensive record. Similar to the way in which Manchester City had — until recently — dominated the Premier League under Guardiola, Leeds have become experts in maintaining defensive prowess by controlling territory and winning the ball back as quickly as they lose it.
Though it’s an extremely well-established issue within the context of Leeds’ season, the team’s record would undoubtedly have some extra gloss on had they not encountered a conversion rate crisis along the way. At the very least, it might have made quantifying Leeds’ 2019–20 performance against other high-achievers a bit more simple in football debate circles.
Starting striker Patrick Bamford has scored 11 goals in the Championship this season, despite attempting 120 shots and recording an xG total of 21.7. It’s an issue that has been discussed a thousand times on Twitter, on radio phone-ins and in every bar in Leeds every Saturday (before a world pandemic landed). Whether it’s bad luck, bad finishing or a combination of both, Bamford’s poor performance in front of goal is an unavoidable reality.
While there is little sense in delving back into it and covering old ground, the subject of Bamford’s conversion struggles at least helps us to show why grading teams from past and present may not be best achieved from a narrow view of goals and results. If we were to judge Leeds’ attacking credentials this season using goals per game averages alone, Bielsa’s side rank 31st out of 144 team entries since the 2014–15 season — among sides graded above them, a Mick McCarthy-led Ipswich side from five years ago would be deemed a better attacking outfit than Leeds this term.
Analysing the same group using Expected Goals (xG) per game, Bielsa’s side rank 1st out of the 144 eligible teams. Where many — as mentioned earlier — will be unmoved in their stance of using goals as the defining stat, it’s clear to see which of the two previous comparisons offers the more accurate reflection of Leeds’ performances this season.
Particularly in terms of assessing the work of coaches within their teams, exploring their ability to create chances rather than explicitly finish them leaves us a smaller margin for error. As recounted by Thierry Henry on former manager Pep Guardiola, “He used to say to us the first time he took the team, ‘my job is to take you up to the last third, your job is to finish it’.”
Likewise, goals conceded and clean sheets can’t be the only tools by which we differentiate the fine margins of performance among the top sides.
From the Cardiff game in December up until his last appearance in March, Kiko Casilla made more errors leading to goals than any other Championship goalkeeper (5), and conceded roughly five goals more than expected from the shots on target faced. Across this period of 15 games, Leeds still ranked in the top three teams for both shots faced and Expected Goals (xG) conceded per game. Their defensive principles hadn’t faltered — the only difference was a crippling period of bad form on the part of their goalkeeper.
By using advanced metrics and going beyond league tables, we’re better equipped to judge the collective workings that Marcelo Bielsa has instilled at Leeds. His team have come back better than before — pressing more effectively, creating better goalscoring chances and controlling the balance of attack and defence at a higher level. Not only have they improved within their own house, Leeds find themselves in pole position with a level of dominance to rival the Championship’s best recent exports.
Where the Argentine was praised last season for empowering a squad beyond their limits, their further improvement in 2019–20 — despite exits of key players — calls for a re-framing of Bielsa’s influence. His team began as underachievers, became overachievers, and now stand as a force with all the means to take their prize.
All data via Opta / Stats Perform
