Leeds’ diversified attack sets path to the Premier League
Is this Leeds United team better than last season’s? At times, it felt like a valid question to ask.
Even the great teams at this level — as Leeds stand close to being remembered— are forced to take their lumps during a Championship season. It’s in those moments when supporters must decide whether the issues or real, or whether it’s merely the natural moments of adversity that come with chasing a prize as big as Championship promotion, in a league fought by cruelly close margins.
As supporters, we have no choice but to endure the tumble dryer experience of following this freakish competition, where every move and every game has to be assessed in real time with a view to the future. The health of Leeds’ promotion push is a topic we can’t be relieved from. Only when it’s over can we be certain of those gut feelings.
Marcelo Bielsa has maintained all along that this season’s team is a more accomplished version of his first act. With nine games to go, and Leeds accelerating towards glory on a five-game winning streak, his team are planning to leave no doubt.
Despite the heartbreak of last season, all indicators suggest Leeds have been performing like a top-two team since Bielsa took charge. Since August 2018 his side have averaged 1.9 points per game in the Championship (excluding play-offs); a number that has had them fighting towards the top of the table from the moment Bielsa’s reign began. It went without saying last summer, but not a great deal would have to change to fix their ending this time round.
Leeds have hunted promotion in much the same way, quite demonstrably. They seek the ball, attack with an excess of numbers and then hunt when it ends so they can do it again.
Perhaps the most distinct change for Leeds — of which there aren’t many in stylistic terms — has been their ability to attack at high speed, especially in transition. Rather than it being an asset Leeds managed to gradually develop across Bielsa’s two seasons, it’s something they were able to work in almost from scratch last summer. The Whites just didn’t have the tools to be effective doing so last season. This time they do, and it has had big implications on their play.
As reported by Phil Hay, Bielsa’s desire to land Hélder Costa in the summer had been a particularly strong one — the Argentine constantly badgering Andrea Radrizzani via Whatsapp to assess the strength of Leeds’ chase. For a manager who can often seem non-committal towards signings, his anxiety to get Costa into the club suggested that he would play a crucial role in how Leeds would fare this season. His presence would have repercussions on the collective, not just what he could offer as an individual. And like most things with Marcelo Bielsa, time would eventually prove him to be correct.
Costa was the key ingredient in Leeds’ new attacking verve; the first of the dominoes to fall. As I wrote here last July, the Portuguese has the characteristics of a wide player that Leeds had sorely lacked, especially for the Bielsa machine to hit its highest gear. Once up to speed he would provide a heavy dose of direct running power — a frightening tool given the intensity that Leeds would be able to play with.
The second consequence of Costa’s arrival was a new role for Pablo Hernández as a central attacking midfielder. This was a crucial development for Leeds, in mind to a more varied attack in 2019–20.
The below graphic is taken from a Championship game against Swansea last season. In this example, we can see how Hernández’s role altered Leeds’ shape despite playing the same 4–1–4–1 system. Playing in an inverted right-side role, the Spaniard was offered a lot of freedom with which to construct moves. Leeds were able to make their concentrated play around Hernández work for most of the season, using the right-back as compensation width and leaving the left side less populated for switching opportunities.
Of course, handing creative responsibility over to (arguably) the league’s most effective playmaker was far from a bad idea. The problem was that Leeds had little alternative; a troublesome reality in a 48-game league season. They won only two of their nine games when Hernández wasn’t available to start (22%), and their fortunes were too closely tied to his individual performances.
The issue later in the season was a gradually disproportionate responsibility on Hernández to carry out and excel in his role as chief creator, with the rest of the team trying to follow his rhythm. Further complications came in opponents becoming more adept in how to slow Leeds’ attacking functions — most namely in crowding out the inside right zones where the Spaniard most frequently operated. Without the consistent ability to provide a left-sided threat that warranted more attention, teams were happy to hedge their bets in committing more bodies in Hernández’s direction.
Now we can compare the team’s most-used shape from last season to the current one, with Costa on the right side and Hernández playing centrally. Immediately we can see the improved balance of the team, with Harrison and Costa both playing as orthodox wide players to resemble something much closer to an attacking trident. With Leeds able to retain their domination over ball control, this balance would give them the platform to attack with more speed and variation, without sacrificing right-sided width to provide Hernández with a free role. Instead, they kept this while also adding an extra option on the wing for the Spaniard to supply.
Along with the addition of Costa and Hernández’s enforced central switch, the progression of Jack Harrison’s game is another important ingredient in how Leeds realised their upgraded attack. The 23-year-old has become one of the most productive wide players in the Championship this season, leading the league in most chances created after ball carries (31) and almost doubling his direct goal contributions from the previous campaign.
Under each of these conditions, Leeds have been able to create a more conducive environment for structured attacking throughout he team. In turn, both parts have influenced each other — while Jack Harrison has improved his ball-carrying threat and decision-making, he’s also doing so in a more balanced team which is better at creating spaces to attack. Leeds’ wide players travel the ball more often and are more effective in doing so, compared to last season:
Pablo Hernández is posting almost identical numbers as last season in terms of chances created from open play, minus the team having to lean so heavily on his contribution to building attacks. And with Costa turning the right flank into a one-on-one threat for Leeds — the team who’ve attacked with the highest average width in the Championship this season (26.4 metres) — the jigsaw has the pieces it needed.
In Bielsa’s second act, their opponents have had to contend with fast play on both flanks, which is supported by advanced full-backs and the likes of Hernández and Klich mixing up their combination play in the centre. With this new-found variety gaining traction as the season has worn on, Leeds have confirmed themselves as the Championship’s most dynamic attacking side — even accounting for their long-term conversion rate struggles.
The graphic above shows team attacking styles from the Championship this season, combining Direct Speed and Possession. We can see here that despite Leeds having the highest share of the ball, they also move the ball up-field at a quicker rate than their closest competitors, particularly in comparison with Fulham who are the league’s second-biggest ball hogs. With quicker movement of the ball and more effective direct play this season, Leeds have been been able to blend strength in possession and speed of attack better than anyone else in the division.
Across the last two seasons, Leeds have transformed themselves from a team with almost zero counter-attacking potential to one of the most dangerous in this realm. Bielsa’s side managed just one ‘fast break goal’ in the Championship last season, according to Opta. This time round they’ve scored the joint-most in the division (6), along with a team specifically designed to counter-attack in the form of Hull. Again, to compare Leeds to their closest promotion rivals, West Brom and Fulham have managed just one ‘fast break goal’ each.
The knock-on effect of having more assorted attacking tools has been that Leeds have been able to rely on a wider range of production. The graphic below shows the team’s top contributors by season in terms of open play Expected Goals and Assists — the measure of the quality of shots and chances created by specific players in each season. Of the 11 highest-ranked season averages under Bielsa, seven of them have come in 2019–20.
Perhaps the most interesting part of Leeds’ new attacking identity is that the only new face — a player who will eventually cost them £15 million — hasn’t been unanimously judged as a good signing. On paper, the case for being unsure on Costa’s value looks to be a fair one. The Portugese has been directly involved in just five goals in 2514 minutes in the Championship for Leeds (two goals and three assists). It’s also true that he’s struggled to follow up his stronger performances with more on a consistent basis, particularly against the back drop of how he performed in the division as a Wolves player.
Firstly, using Opta’s Expected Goals and Assists data, the total of Costa’s goal involvement should have been somewhere closer to double of his five (9.6). Of course, strikers miss chances; for which the player who provides the assist for that shouldn’t be unduly punished by getting no credit. Playing in a team with Patrick Bamford as the number nine is — simply a fact we can’t deny — not great for representing chance creation by teammates, particularly if we only focus on concrete assists. On the goals front, a combination of bad luck and at times some indecisive finishing, has done little to boost Costa’s modest return in direct goal contributions.
Judging Costa solely on his goals and assists limits his role to much less than it is, however. Playing as a winger in a side managed by Marcelo Bielsa is a much different role the ones he experienced in previous clubs. The level of conditioning and high intensity work needed to operate for 90 minutes there is not to be sniffed at, as highlighted by the fact his first league start came two months into the season after an injury opened a spot for him.
Even in spells last season when Jack Harrison was routinely hauled off at half time in place of the bigger attacking threat in Jack Clarke, Bielsa consistently kept faith in Harrison as a starter because of his familiarity and ability to carry out the roles his manager demanded. While it’s true that Costa hasn’t shined quite as brightly as expected as an individual, he has managed to collate the responsibilities of a Bielsa-endorsed winger to a level which put his value beyond how many goals or assists he ends the season with.
It’s very possible Leeds could have still been promoted without Costa this season, but the attacking progression the team have made in 2019–20 has strong roots in his involvement. This current version has promoted more shared contributions throughout the team, lifting the unrelenting workload from Hernández’s shoulders, and generally making them a more difficult team to contain across the board.
"I thought Leeds were exceptional,” said Harry Toffolo following the last game against Huddersfield (the man who was up against Costa at left back). “The movement of the players was the best I've come across in the league so far.”
In his quest to position Leeds for the Premier League, Marcelo Bielsa has brought together the pieces that should seal their ticket over the course of 18 months. Between his first contact with Jack Harrison in the summer of 2018 and the last instructions for Pablo Hernández before they took to the field against Huddersfield, the Argentine’s imprint has remained bold throughout the tweaks and advances along the way.
His moulding of Leeds into their present day version has taken them closer to the full Bielsa experience, and more importantly closer to the prize they have waited so long for. To revisit the question we asked ourselves around the turn of the year — is this team better than last season’s?
Yes it is. Now, for the different ending.
