Leeds return to the Championship with an air of vengeance
As the pre-season favourites to win the Championship title in 2019–20, it comes as little surprise that Leeds top the table after five games. Bielsa’s side find themselves back at their base level; removed from the hysteria of the play-offs and late season “bottling”, and dispelling any doubts that their crushing summer would carry into August. Promotion remains the burning target for Leeds, and not much will have to change for them to get it.
With Ben White being the only new starter to feature in Leeds’ opening five games, neither the blueprint nor the personnel has seen radical change. Bielsa’s side have continued their strategy of aggressive, attacking football and high pressing; doing so largely from within the same starting formation. At their core they remain the same, yet there is a sense that — perhaps as a product of this continuity, and having another pre-season under Bielsa — Leeds have established a new ceiling of control.
Four wins, one draw and three clean sheets has established the path, setting Leeds out in front and commencing the chase, with only Swansea being able to match the early pace. But while the table states that Leeds have been merely a goal better than the second-place Swans so far, a more thorough investigation paints a different picture.
Fuelled by their 67% share of possession, Leeds have exercised a truly vice-like grip on proceedings so far. This is reflected when looking at data on open play shots from inside the box, where Leeds lead the league in both an attacking and defensive sense; collecting frequent opportunities for well-located shots, as well as constricting chances for return fire from their opponents. Of the 51 open play shots from inside the box in Leeds’ games this season, 88% of them have been in favour of the Whites.
Before even delving into the quality of these shots taken and conceded, we can see from the graphic above how much of an outlier these figures are, in relation to the rest of the league. In being able to take control of games through their positional play and strong use of the ball, Leeds have constructed an environment by which they have had almost complete control on the action in both boxes. And at the same time, that monopoly on action in both penalty areas has also reinforced their general control of play.
The good news for Leeds is that their stranglehold on general play has been accompanied by efficiency in both boxes. Using Opta’s Expected Goals (xG) model — a measurement of chance quality, taking into account a number of variables — Leeds rank first in the Championship in creating and limiting opportunities to score. The end result has been that Bielsa’s side have had over a 90% ownership on the share of chance quality from open play.
Even in the event of a conversion rate crisis, only the Football Gods could ensure this level of force isn’t generally reflected in scorelines:
Indeed, it was a set piece goal against Nottingham Forest that means Leeds don’t have a 100% record in the Championship. And while it’s important that the Whites perform competently in both attacking and defending them this season, a diminished ability at set plays tends to be a natural trade-off in teams that are able to dominate games in a positional sense. “I’m the tallest guy (at City). So when it’s a set-piece you go to the church to pray,” Pep Guardiola said, shortly after winning the title away at Brighton in May.
The shared aim is that gains made elsewhere — as Leeds have seemingly done going from Pontus Jansson to Ben White —can outweigh the disadvantage in terms of physical presence, which of course correlates to set piece strength.
At this point, it should be clarified that maintaining Leeds’ current level of domination in both boxes will be impossible. Their grip on the Championship is extreme, and humming at a higher rate than Manchester City’s on the Premier League last season (and practically any relative barometer within European football, for that matter). Guardiola’s side posted a 78% share of open play shots from inside the box in 2018–19; in the month of August, Leeds have averaged 88% in the Championship. Coming back down to earth, whether it be in a week’s time or two months down the line, needn’t be a disappointment for Bielsa’s men.
The challenges ahead remain, while different teams and systems will find solutions to disrupt Leeds. In time, the cat and mouse battle will play out between Bielsa and his opposite numbers, but the goal will be to remain as close to their present day version as they can. The case Leeds have put forward in August is beyond the requisite levels of a Championship promotion contender, and verging on mere gluttony.
Among a number of other contributing factors, destiny and circumstance were allowed a large, cruel say in how last season ended for Leeds. If they can continue to exercise a representation of this control over a longer period, even in a gradually diminished form, theirs and Marcelo Bielsa’s fate will be difficult to deny for a second consecutive season.
