Will 2024 be 2012 All Over Again?
The 2024 presidential election has an eerie resemblance to the 2012 contest. Resemblances between 2012 and 2024 include a black Democratic nominee and close polls.
In 2012, President Barack Obama (D-Illinois) sought a second term. Polling averages predicted a close 2012 contest despite a lackluster Republican nominee Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts).
For example, the final average of polling from 4 November 2012 had Romney at 50% of the popular vote and Obama at 50%. An earlier average, 28 October 2012, had Romney at 51% and Obama at 46%.
However, individual polls were more accurate in 2012. For example, a 1 to 4 November 2012 ABC News/Washington Post poll had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47%. So did a 31 October to 3 November 2012 Pew Research Poll. Obama won the popular vote in 2012 by a margin of 51.5% to 47.2% or 3.9%.
2012 was a Worse Polling Disaster than 2016
Yet some big-name polls got 2012 wrong. For example, the Politco/George Washington University/Battleground, CNN/Opinion Research, and Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Bragun polls had Obama and Romney tied.
A 1 to 3 November 2012 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had Obama winning by 1%. The 1 to 4 November 2012 Gallup poll had Romney winning by 1%. Real Clear Polling’s average of the…