Are We Already Living In A Simulation?
I could listen to Elon Musk talk about this all day. He did for a few minutes with Joe Rogan.
Yeah, I know the headlines from the podcast were all about Elon Musk smoking weed. And I admit, it spurned some pretty decent internet content.
But that was a brief, one minute exchange, well past the two hour mark of the podcast. It overshadowed the rest of the great conversation.
Musk and Rogan discussed everything from solving LA traffic with tunnels, colonizing Mars, Tesla, The Boring Company, the perils of social media, and the dangers of artificial intelligence.
They also discussed one of my favorite Musk theories: That we’re already living in a simulation that is indistinguishable from reality.
Below is his theory that he laid out on the pod:
“The argument for the simulation, I think, is quite strong. Because if you assume any rate of improvement at all, over time, 1%, 0.1%, just extend the timeframe. Make it 1,000 years, make it a million years, the universe is 13.8 billion years old. Civilization, if you’re very generous, is maybe seven or eight thousand years old, if you count it from the first writing. This is nothing. So if you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality…
Or civilization will end. One of those two things will happen. Therefore we are most likely in a simulation. Because we exist.”
I love hearing Musk talk about this theory for three reasons:
1. He simply states the facts and connects the dots with logic.
Musk doesn’t try to give a hard sell about this theory. To him, he is looking at the data and drawing his conclusion. In another interview he says it is a one-in-billions chance that we aren’t living in a simulation (linked below).
Musk explains this by comparing the video game, Pong, created just 40 years ago to the photo-realistic video games we have today. He projects that rate of improvement against the length of the universe and civilization.
2. His certainty is comforting.
If this theory is correct, it would completely shift our world view. It calls into question everything we have ever known. But because Musk is so matter-of-fact, it allows you to digest the information easily.
If Elon doesn’t seem worried about this. I guess I shouldn’t be either.
3. Whether we’re in a simulation or not, it doesn’t really matter. Our reality is still real, to us.
What is reality, anyway?
We all still wake-up and have to get through our lives. Just because the simulation isn’t a base-reality, it doesn’t mean our to-do list goes away or our family or friends aren’t real and we no longer need to make money to buy our expensive material items.
Whether real or a simulation, this is our world and we have to function within its parameters.
Below is a video of Elon explaining his theory at Code Conference in 2016. It is essentially the same as what he talks about on Rogan’s pod but the guy asking the question sounds way smarter than Joe.
