The US Senate 2015 — November View from June

The Senate hangs in the balance… 

Republicans have had a good few weeks. Despite the losses of incumbents like Ralph Hall, David Dewhurst in Texas and potentially Thad Cochran, establishment candidates have had it good. They’ve managed to avoid tea party and ‘extreme’ candidates in many of the important races. Thom Tillis in North Carolina managed to cruise to the GOP Senate nomination beating multiple tea party backed candidates. In Georgia, the establishment favorites, David Purdue and Jack Kingston, made it to the run off. The vulnerable to a tea party challenger, Mike Simpson, comfortably crushed his primary opponent in the Idaho primary. Monica Wehby and Neel Kashkari, long-shot candidate in blue-leaning state states, managed to secure the GOP nod against Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Jerry Brown of California respectively.

Now that most of the decisive primaries have yielded results and there is clarity on the match-ups, I believe it is an appropriate time to have a look at the top most competitive Senate races. The number 10 on the list is least likely to flip and number 1 being the most likely to flip.

10. Kentucky — Mitch McConnell (R) v/s Alison Grimes (D)

The incumbent Senator (also, the Minority Leader), Mitch McConnell, managed to achieve a very decisive victory against his primary opponent, Matt Bevin. The outside groups who were on a mission to make the Minority Leader unemployed a couple weeks back have now wholeheartedly coalesced around the incumbent Senator. A united Republican front bodes well for McConnell against a top tier Democrat challenger in Alison Grimes.

Despite the strengths that the Democrat nominee possesses (namely: attractive, policy-savvy, well-funded, legacy candidate, gaffe-free and charismatic), Kentucky is a very red state with an acute disliking of the man steering the ship, President Barack Obama. In order for the Democrats to win this one, they need a perfect candidate, a perfect campaign and a perfect national environment. So far, they’ve only got the perfect candidate. In other words, while a Kentucky Senate victory is highly improbable, it is by no means impossible.

Verdict: Likely Republican Previous Ranking: 10

9. Colorado — Mark Udall (D) v/s Cory Gardner (R)

While Cory Gardner hasn’t set the fire, he certainly has sent some shivers in the Democratic camp. Mark Udall looked relatively comfortable for re-election before Gardner’s entry in the race. But, all of a sudden, the race is now among the most competitive.

Gardner has run a well-oiled campaign, free of gaffes and comments that could potentially hurt him in come November. It helps that he managed to clear the primary field which made sure that he didn’t have to pivot to the right to appeal to the tea-party factions.

For Udall, Obama’s unpopularity and the Keystone Pipeline (and Udall’s indecisiveness on the issue) have become a drag. While he’s trying to portray himself as independent of the unpopular President, there is a flurry of outside spending trying to do the exact opposite. If the attack ads stick, Udall is soon to be former Senator. If not, then he stands a fighting chance against US Representative Cory Gardner.

The power of incumbency might just work in Udall’s favor. But, the X-factor in the race remains the turnout. A typical midterm turnout will help boost the Gardner’s chances in the race.

Verdict: Toss-up Previous Ranking: Not featured

8. Georgia — Michelle Nunn (D) v/s Jack Kingston or David Purdue (R)

Georgia is by far the best pick up opportunity for the Democrats. In Michelle Nunn, they’ve scored a formidable candidate in a red-leaning state. The fact that Nunn comes from a politically influential family has certainly helped her name recognition. On top of that, she’s got a strong resume to go with bipartisan credentials having worked with G.H.W. Bush on Points of Light charity project.

Despite her strengths as a candidate, winning in a red-ish state during what seems like a Republican wave will be a very heavy lift. The GOP prospects in the state are further helped by the progression of the two establishment favorites, Jack Kingston and David Purdue, through to the run-off. But, a prolonged run-off gives Nunn more time to accumulate a general election war-chest and define herself in front of the voters while the two Republican challengers fight out the nomination.

Verdict: Toss-up Previous Ranking: 7

7. Arkansas — Mark Pryor (D) v/s Tom Cotton (R)

After having avoided an election completely in 2008, Pryor has his work cut out for himself this time around with a potential career ending challenge from US Representative Tom Cotton. Cotton is one of the rare breeds of GOP, embraced by the establishment wing and the tea party wing of the party.

The polls lately have indicated that Pryor has opened up a lead against Cotton, but, both camps acknowledge that the race is very fluid and will remain that way up until Election Day.

That said, Arkansas is among the reddest of the states and one which threw out an incumbent Democrat Senator, Blanche Lincoln, by very large margins. So, a Pryor defeat against a strong challenger shouldn’t be too shocking.

Verdict: Toss-up Previous Ranking: 5

6. Alaska — Mark Begich (D) v/s Dan Sullivan or Mike Treadwell (R)

In 2008, Mark Begich managed to beat the incumbent Senator Ted Stevens, who was battling corruption and ethics charges, by a whisker in an overwhelmingly Democratic year. But 2014 is a whole different ball game as a Republican wave is emerging and Begich is up against strong challengers who do not have Akin-esque attributes or extremism.

Over the past 6 years, Begich has been able accumulate a moderate record that works well with a conservative electorate in Alaska. But, his vote for the Affordable Act Care continues to hang like an albatross across his neck. He has already seen a barrage of negative ads targeted towards him for being the decisive vote for Obamacare. And, that barrage is likely to continue till Election Day but, it remains to be seen if this barrage is able to move the needle in GOP’s favor.

The polling, thus far, has been scant but there is a consensus among all that this will be another squeaker of a race.

Verdict: Toss-up Previous Ranking: 6

5. North Carolina — Kay Hagan (D) v/s Thom Tillis (R)

North Carolina is a true swing state which voted with the Democrats in 2008, but reverted back to voting for Republicans in 2012. So, Republicans do not necessarily have a built-in base support they have in red states like Arkansas, Montana and Louisiana.

But, Thom Tillis’ convincing primary victory avoided an unelectable candidate. Plus, the overwhelming manner in which he wrapped up the nomination, avoiding the run-off, means he can take a laser sharp approach solely on the incumbent Senator, Kay Hagan. Plus, it helps that he doesn’t have to pivot further to the right, something he would have been forced to do had a run-off been triggered.

For Kay Hagan, the state will be a tall order largely because her base comprises of minority and young voters, groups who tend to not vote during the midterms. If she can, somehow, turn them out and replicate the midterm turnout to those in presidential years, then she is well placed. Otherwise, she might be in more trouble than polling, thus far, has suggested.

Verdict: Toss-up Previous Ranking: 8

4. Louisiana — Mary Landrieu (D) v/s Bill Cassidy (R)

Louisiana is a deep red state which Romney had no trouble carrying. And, the state has continued to be unfriendly territory for the Democrats over the past couple decades and that trend has shown no signs of reversing. Therefore, anyone running with a (D) next to their name starts with a massive built-in disadvantage.

While Landrieu is not the most vulnerable incumbent Senator in the US this cycle, that is hardly a sigh of relief. She is locked in what is expected to be a very bitter battle between her and an establishment favorite, Bill Cassidy. So far, Cassidy has been a god-send candidate for the Republicans with his prefect credentials and a near-perfect campaign rollout. At present, it seems like Landrieu is in serious trouble and unless Cassidy self implodes, it will remain that way for the incumbent Senator.

Verdict: Leans Republican Previous Ranking: 3

3. Montana — John Walsh (D) v/s Steve Daines (R)

Montana is another deep red state where Romney trounced President Obama in 2012. Unlike in other solid red states, Montana Democrats have managed to achieve some success in the state by localizing the issues. It is for this reason they’ve had multiple Democrat Senators and Governors over the past decade.

The incumbent Senator, John Walsh, walked into the job through an appointment by the state’s Democrat Governor. While it was perceived that the power of incumbency will help the Democrat, so far, that hasn’t held true as the Republican challenger Steve Daines has been seen crushing the incumbent by doubt digits in all the polling seen across the state.

Therefore, thanks to a very strong Republican recruit in Steve Daines, the presence of the incumbent Senator seems to have been negated making it a real uphill battle for the blue team to hold this seat.

Verdict: Leans Republican Previous Ranking: 4

2. West Virginia — Natalie Tennant (D) v/s Shelley Moore Capito (R)

West Virginia has become a very infertile ground for the Democrats over the past decade except if your name is Joe Manchin, Senator and former Governor.

While the Democrats have touted Tennant to be a strong recruit, Republicans have a stronger, more tested recruit in Capito. This seat is virtually a lock for the Republicans, barring some major stumble for Capito. But then again, with a candidate as composed and experienced as Capito, a major stumble is wishful thinking.

Verdict: Likely Republican Previous Ranking: 2

1. South Dakota — Rick Weiland (D) v/s Mike Rounds (R)

This is in the bag for Republicans. Rick Weiland is toast and the former South Dakota Governor Mike Rounds is going to be the next US Senator from South Dakota. Enough Said.

Verdict: Solidly Republican Previous Ranking: 1

While the 10 races mentioned above are the ones most likely to switch parties, it would be a mistake to ignore a few other encounters that could potentially become competitive closer to Election Day. The races to have earned the honorary mentions are:

a. New Hampshire — Jeanne Shaheen (D) v/s Scott Brown (R) — Leans Democrat

b. Michigan — Gary Peters (D) v/s Teri Lynn Land (R) — Leans Democrat

c. Oregon — Jeff Merkley (D) v/s Monica Wehby — Likely Democrat

d. Virginia — Mark Warner (D) v/s Ed Gillespie (R) — Solidly Democrat

Therefore, taking into account that Republicans have managed to expand the map well beyond than the red states and into the purple and blue leaning states courtesy credible and strong recruits, they are well positioned to take over the Senate. At this point, it seems inevitable that the Republicans will take the majority in the Senate. The only question that remains to be seen is what would be extent of the majority the Republicans manage. Bear in mind that this cycle is very favorable for Team Red and so, they would like a cushion of a few seats considering they have a hostile 2016 headed their way with seats in play from blue and purple states to go with a presidential election turnout. But, my verdict is that come Election Day 2014, Republicans will take back the Senate 52 — 48.