The US Senate 2016

It’s hard to imagine that it was only 6 months ago that the post-mortem of the 2014 midterm elections was in full swing, and here it is, hardly midyear into 2015 and we’re already looking at the 2016 election cycle. With regards to the Senate 2016, the election is carbon copy of the 2014 midterms with one twist; as much as the 2014 map was favorable to Republicans, 2016 is just as favorable for Democrats, if not more.

So, while the election is upon us, one must bear in mind that it is relatively early for many of the presumptive battles as the fields are only starting to shape up. Both, NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) and DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) are busy recruiting their candidates and simultaneously, trashing the opponent’s announced and presumptive candidates. The official campaigning has not started in most cases, but the stains from partisan mudslinging are already visible.

In this era of unlimited sums of money and round the clock news cycle, we are assured to have a roller-coaster of an election ride given the competitive nature of over a dozen races to go with the ultimate prize at stake, Senate Majority. The only reason Republicans are breathing slightly easily is because of the 4 seat cushion they have to protect their majority (54–46), while Democrats are salivating at the prospect of half a dozen seats in play in blue or blue-leaning states.

Here’s how the Senate’s most competitive races are placed this early in the 2016 election cycle with the number 10 on the list being least likely to flip and number 1 being the most likely to flip:

10. Indiana

With the retirement of Dan Coats, Republicans have an additional seat to defend. Although Obama took the state in 2008, it remains dark red territory and thus, remains an uphill battle for any Democrat. That said, then-US Representative, Joe Donnelly (Democrat), managed to pull off an unlikely victory while capitalizing on rash comments made by the Republican candidate, Richard Mourdock. They say that the lightning doesn’t strike twice and so, it is unlikely that any Republican candidate will repeat the mistakes Mourdock made. Democrats, this past week, scored a big win by getting a top tier candidate, former US Representative Baron Hill, in the race. However, only a combination of a perfect Democratic candidate and a flawed Republican candidate could put Democrats over the top in this race.

Verdict: Likely Republican

9. North Carolina

The conventional wisdom suggests that the incumbent Republican Senator from North Carolina, Richard Burr, is relatively safe come election day; but, the conventional wisdom also suggested the same of former Senator Cory Gardner from Colorado this time last cycle and we all know how that turned out. North Carolina will be competitive territory in the Presidential election and it is conceivable that a strong Democratic candidate like, ousted Senator Kay Hagan, can give Senator Burr run for his money. At this point, however, former Senator Kay Hagan hasn’t shown a great deal of interest in challenging his former colleague and a strong Democrat challenger is yet to emerge.

Verdict: Likely Republican

8. New Hampshire

The incumbent, Senator Kelly Ayotte, is at significant risk under one condition only; the condition being that popular New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan declares a run for Senate. If Democrats don’t get their preferred candidate, Senator Ayotte is likely to coast to an easy re-election. Since Governor Hassan has indicated she’ll make a decision regarding entering the race by mid-summer, the race will be categorized as Likely Republican until she declares her intentions.

Verdict: Likely Republican

7. Colorado

The incumbent Senator, Michael Bennett, won his first team by a squeaker of a margin against a flawed Republican candidate, Ken Buck. Given the nature of Colorado as a premier swing state, the state is likely to be at the center of a Presidential fight. Senator Bennett has the obvious advantage of incumbency but if a strong candidate like US Representative Mike Coffman or his wife, Attorney General of Colorado Cynthia Coffman emerges, then the race could go either way. Since Colorado is one of the only two pickup opportunities for Republicans, there is expectation that they’d make a major play for the seat to further pad their at-risk majority.

Verdict: Leans Democrat

6. Ohio

Ohio Senator Rob Portman starts off as a favorite, albeit marginally, for this heavy weight battle against the presumptive Democrat nominee former Ohio governor, Ted Strickland. Under normal circumstances, Rob Portman, a relatively popular senator with an advantage of incumbency, would be a shoo-in, but a very strong opponent in Ted Strickland and unpredictable presidential turnout could complicate matters for the incumbent.

Verdict: Leans Republican

5. Pennsylvania

Republican Senator Pat Toomey is fighting in a terrain where President Obama has carried the electorate twice, easily. And though the incumbent has been able to carve out a moderate image and as a result, remains fairly popular, the presidential turnout can make it an uphill climb. That said, Democrats have a candidate, Joe Sestak, which they’re not particularly enthusiastic about and in the event that they don’t get an alternative candidate, Pat Toomey will definitely be able to breathe easier.

Verdict: Leans Republican

4. Nevada

The open seat in Nevada presents a prime opportunity for Republicans to pick a seat up to provide further cushion to their majority, which is already at stake. Reid not being at the top of the ticket sure is likely to benefit Democrats’ chances to hold the seat particularly given they’ve already scored a top tier candidate in former attorney general, Catherine Cortez Masto, who joins the race with much less baggage than the current placeholder. The Republicans, though, have yet to find a candidate but with popular Governor Brian Sandoval and US Rep Joe Heck, they’ve got strong candidates with broad appeal to fill that void. At present, Republicans’ candidate strength can be neutralized by the presidential turnout which will favor the Democrats. Therefore, this contest stands on knife’s edge.

Verdict: Toss Up

3. Florida

With Senator Marco Rubio running for President, the Sunshine State will have an open seat which will be harder for Republicans to defend without a popular incumbent on the top of the ticket. Therefore, while Republicans brace for a tough primary fight between US Rep Ron DeSantis and the Florida Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, the Democrats have already started coalescing around their top notch candidate, Rep Patrick Murphy, with bipartisan appeal. A combination of a presidential turnout to go with a strong recruit, it seems like Democrats are a step ahead in this race.

Verdict: Leans Democrat

2. Illinois

Republican Senator Mark Kirk won in 2010 under the best of circumstances; a Republican wave across the country and a weak opponent. But, he might not get that lucky this time around considering he will potentially be up against a formidable candidate in US Rep Tammy Duckworth. Senator Kirk’s only saving grace might be a Democratic primary, which looks more and more likely with US Rep Robin Kelly considering a run. While the incumbent senator has managed to maintain bipartisan credentials, those may not be enough to counter presidential turnout that Senator Kirk will be up against in a heavily blue state.

Verdict: Leans Democrat

1. Wisconsin

With former Democrat Senator Russ Feingold announcing a run for his old seat, the incumbent Senator Ron Johnson looks as good as gone. While other incumbents in blue and purple states have tried to maintain a moderate profile, Senator Johnson hasn’t moved to the center and continues to maintain a rather conservative profile. Seeing as how he’s up against a strong opponent during a presidential turnout, which is bound to favor the Democrats, the incumbent looks toast. However, all may not be doomed for Senator Ron Johnson just yet; a Scott Walker candidacy for President might help the vulnerable incumbent to just pull through. The again, that is yet to be determined.

Verdict: Likely Democrat

With how things seem at present, my current prediction is that Republicans will be able to maintain their majority, although, by a hair (51–49).