Inductive Reasoning is not Conspiracy Theory

Mar 23 · 10 min read
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

We cannot know the truth about a whole lot of things according to our government. We as citizens cannot have certain knowledge. As citizens of the United States, you are looking into a room through a keyhole. In the room, there is an invisible person, place, or thing. How do you determine what it is? You blow smoke into the room through the keyhole. Eventually you are able to determine where the smoke DOES NOT go. It is a long long process.

As a nation we are being inundated with manipulative media on all sides, sifting through it all is truly a full-time process. There are many “ideas” which when postulated were labeled as “conspiracy theories” at the time, but were later proven to be absolutely true. I am not going to write an essay about all of those because an entire trilogy at least exists in the information. No, I shall concentrate on those LIES which led directly to war. Because that is what they really are. These LIES were pushed and protected by storms of misinformation labeling valid criticism as conspiracy theory to sell war to reluctant citizens and soldiers.

I concentrate on war because as we are often reminded, war is an extraordinary circumstance requiring extraordinary sacrifice. We all know the familiar drum beats of war. It is supposed to be a HIGH bar for the declaration of war. Perhaps this is why none of the conflicts which follow is actually a declared war! They are all “police actions” I guess.

Already things become “non-standard”. I mean what do we mean by war? Things can begin feeling illogical because clearly the Iraq War was/is a war. Yet the United States did not declare war. The Iraq War was clearly a manufactured event, but those who questioned the Niger documents were conspiracy theorists of the time. How many links I should provide here to support the selling of that conflict I cannot say, but I am only leaving one. It is a proven conclusion at this point.

Desert Storm about ten years before was sold on even flimsier evidence. A young girl came into the United States Congress and tearfully described heinous war crimes by the Iraqi troops. Once Americans start hearing babies are being thrown from incubators, it is a lot easier to get backing to send in the troops. The alarming question about What kind of people throw babies from incubators? should morph into What should the consequences be for lying about such a thing? but it did not. Though this incident was completely fabricated, the discussion about what the consequences should be for “tall tales” has never happened.

Also, there is the Vietnam War in which over 50,000 Americans died. This war which went on for years was based on an incident that never happened. This has now been admitted by most experts. The Gulf of Tonkin Incident was a fabrication. The Vietnam War was a terribly costly conflict in terms of human lives, not just Americans. The actual goals for such a conflict were already a bit nebulous. They become very questionable when the “spark” is CREATED.

People die in wars. That is why there is supposed to be a high standard of truth. Are we to believe the Gulf of Tonkin Incident was just an unlucky coincidence? Sort of like the string of unlucky coincidences which took Jeffrey Epstein’s life? Or did the “spark” get created purposefully? What would that mean for us? Well, it means I should probably stop writing this…

and put it away, but…

he foolishly writes on…

Captured by the Bamboozle

Above I have just documented a half century of war based upon at best half-truth. America has been captured by the bamboozle. It is a given for the soldier to be “captured by the bamboozle”. They must. They fight and die. They will kill and be killed for “something”…it CANNOT be for a BAMBOOZLE.

This is why civilians are supposed to be in charge of deciding when we declare war. Once your buddy dies on some hill, you do not need any GOOD reason to take the hill other than your buddy just gave his blood for it. The hill is NOW WORTH taking.

The bamboozle requires a lack of good information to spring its ambush. Where the facts are scarce, passion and glowing oratory can fill in nicely. Just like when someone comes up in a “far too friendly” fashion to deliver a “too good to be true” bargain in your lap, the distracting oratory is a warning. You feel you are about to be bamboozled, but how? You do not know the person. Everything they are saying could very well be true. You do not have many facts, but you use INDUCTIVE reasoning to figure things out.

You run down the list of what you DO know:

1] This is a random encounter. You just stopped here for gas.

2] The neighborhood looks a little run down.

3] Your friend pitching the bargain looks like he has been living in a car.

If that was really a gold chain, why sell it for so cheap, when you obviously need the money is a question which comes to mind. You don’t ask the bamboozler that though. You just say, “No thank you”.

Unfortunately, when they beat the drums of war we don’t get to say no. We are told we MUST believe. The risks are too high not to be certain. We deduce the only CERTAIN answer is OVERWHELMING force, so taxpayers write another check and soldiers march off to battle.

What is inductive reasoning?

Deductive reasoning is great when you can use it. You rarely have ALL the facts though. If you do have them you can use deduction to draw conclusions. Use these facts for example. If there are only black and white balls, and there are three balls and the set includes both colors, if you can see two white balls, you KNOW the other one is black. The set contains both colors. You know how many balls there are. You know there is only one ball left and the other color is not represented. A deductive conclusion is possible.

Inductive reasoning is a different method of logical thinking that combines observations with experiential information to reach a conclusion. When you can look at a specific set of data and draw general conclusions based on past experiences, you are using inductive reasoning. If the above set of balls had four in it and you saw two white ones, you could not conclude that both the ones you did NOT see were black.

You could conclude ONE was black, but the other would be a mystery unless another fact was presented which was there is an equal number of balls of each color. At least in the world of DEDUCTIVE reasoning, but when things are important humans pay attention to patterns. If for example, we knew most ball games had balls of each color in equal numbers…MOST of the time. Inductively, we might reason there were two balls of one color in the bag if we saw two balls of another color out of the bag.

The Thought Experiment

Inductive reasoning is useful and it is why humans are good at it. Of late, I have heard and seen a lot stuff about the “flawed thinking” in the conspiracy theorist’s mind. This type of indoctrination is meant to tamp down “inductive reasoning”. A lot of stuff has been going on for a long time. American citizens are using their human inductive reasoning and beginning to form a hypothesis.

I am not a QANon shaman or anything of that nature. In fact, I have helped my fellow Americans skew QAnon speculations through simple DEDUCTIVE reasoning. Inductive reasoning is a far more nuanced way of thinking. The most frustrating thing about it is you know it is just an “educated guess”. You long for more facts so you can draw real DEDUCTIVE conclusions, but such is life. To help my fellow citizens resist their “programming” I present this inductive reasoning thought experiment.

I am going to show you some links and photos about the United States Air Force’s technology. Bear with me.

First here is the SR-71 Blackbird. This is the world’s fastest aircraft. The SR-71 may be the world’s first stealth aircraft. It was first flown in 1964.

Here is another record-setting plane from the United States Air Force. The U-2 spy plane which flew so high when it was first flow in 1956, the pilots believed they could not be shot down. Until the Soviet Union shot down Francis Gary Powers in 1962. Nonetheless, the United States Air Force claims the U-2 is an indispensable part of its arsenal.

The SR-71 is over fifty years old. The U-2 is over sixty-five years old. The pace of technology may have slowed in aeronautics, but gosh this seems like we STOPPED developing anything. This seems hard to believe if we compare the development timelines which led to these craft.

What did airplanes look like fifty years before the SR-71 and the U-2? Maybe if we took a look at some of these planes it will help us with our thought experiment. Fifty years before the SR-71 what did planes look like in 1914 before the start of World War 1?

I am just stacking the links for you to review really, but you can see planes were rather flimsy things fifty years before the SR-71. The U-2 is sixty-five years old though. This goes back to the very beginnings of aviation.

In fact if you go back sixty-five years before the U-2, there is no aviation. We are well within the nineteenth century at that point. This is before heavier than air powered flight. What does this all mean? Wait the thought experiment has a few more facts for you to include. Remember these are publicly available unquestioned facts I present in this thought experiment.

When one learns the Army has somehow lost six trillion dollars, one is concerned. One is thankful to hear it was not REAL money, it is just some computer glitch. We need not worry ourselves with an audit of the Pentagon which uncovers trillions more missing. These are accounting errors caused by computer glitches.

Well at least the Air Force has not lost any money right? The Air Force is cool and it is the cutting edge of American military. It has always been the military’s place for other high-flyers, like astronauts. It made sense, since flying is flying is flying we are told.

Still when we hear from the previous president that we have a Space Force, we are actually not too surprised. We are kind of expecting that after all these years, there must be something we are doing to secure the high ground of the 21st century. It would only make sense right? And of course a horse makes perfect sense here too.

Now you have the background for this inductive reasoning thought experiment. You have the facts “publicly available, sparse as they are. They are indisputable facts I have presented here, though.

What inductively reasoned conclusions can be drawn about the United States government and military based upon the above loose collection of facts?

That is it. That is the thought experiment I have presented for you. I am not going to write any further about what my conclusions were from such an inductive reasoning thought experiment. I would not want to influence your thinking here. After all, this is just an “educated guess”, so why even inject possible bias by telling you about my guesses. You are on your own here, though I would love to read in the comments some of your conclusions once the readers give this a good think.

Photo by K. Mitch Hodge on Unsplash

When you are ALL done, for extra credit think about some of the other “conspiracy theories” which may have basis in fact. Things like QAnon sprout in the fertile ground of obvious lies. Not everyone is a good inductive reasoner, but they know when somebody is trying to bamboozle them…or do they?

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