The Future of Commercial Space Travel
In a mere ten years, commercial space travel has gone from a hope and a dream to becoming a viable alternative, and perhaps replacement, for government-funded space exploration. “In many industries, a decade is barely enough time to cause dramatic change unless something disruptive comes along — a new technology, business model or service design. The space industry has recently been enjoying all three,” writes Joel Wooten, assistant professor of Management Science at the University of South Carolina.
The commercial space travel industry had a difficult start when SpaceX were on their fourth attempt at launching their Falcon 1 rocket into orbit. With finances struggling, the fledging company looked on with bated breath and an eventual sigh of relief as they created commercial space travel history when Falcon 1 successfully left planet Earth. A subsequent contract with NASA assured that an industry was born.
What has happened since that fateful day in 2008 and where, or how far, will the future take us?
Global Progress
Following the races to the finish line shortly before, during, and after the Cold War, we have entered an era of collaboration between governmental space agencies. However, shrinking budgets and advancing technology has left room for monetary motivation. “Now, we’ve entered a new phase — openness — with private, commercial companies leading the way,” writes Wooten.
The space travel industry has seen rapid growth and investment in the last decade. A report from the firm Space Angels shows that capital firms invested more than $3.9 billion in private space companies during 2017. 55 launches were conducted in the first six months of 2018, compared to 42 in the first half of 2017. That accounts for a 31% increase from one year to the next. As of September, 51 launches are planned from October to December.
Unlike the governmental space industry, typically dominated by Russia and the US, commercial space travel is global. Orbital launches have originated from pads in China, India, Japan, French Guinea, and New Zealand; in addition to Russia and the US. In August, China surpassed its previous record of 22 launches in 2016.
With a planned launch in 2019, NASA has named nine astronauts to ride the first crewed commercial space flight to the international space station. SpaceX and Boeing were paid seed money by NASA to incentivise development of the capsules. Technical and safety issues have delayed the mission, which was originally to take place this year.
The new openness, along with globalisation and funding, has seen innovation reach new heights. Scott Roberson states in Digital Trends, “Private, commercial spaceflight. Even lunar exploration, mining, and colonization — it’s suddenly all on the table, making the race for space today more vital than it has felt in years.”
Viren Gupta of Forbes Technology Council writes: “The space race gave us tremendous advances in technology. As this race opens up to private enterprise, there will be an exponential rise in innovation and basic scientific research, which will enhance many sectors. There will be multiple companies that will take us to space, the moon and potentially beyond. This will open doors for us to be a multiplanetary species or potentially a nonplanetary species.”
Manufacturing in Space
Developing sustainable operations in space poses several challenges. One of them comes down to manufacturing; production on Earth for launch into space is time-consuming and expensive. Made in Space, a company providing tools, spare parts, and medical devices for the crew at the International Space Station, uses 3D printing to meet needs on demand. They cite benefits such as flexibility and inventory management, as well as space enhancing production with some materials.
As our exploration expands, so will our need for items, buildings, or technology while in space. Wooten and his colleague, Christopher Tang, have created a framework for Earth-space operations, accounting for manufacturing location and the challenges each combination poses.
Wooten writes, on the perils of human workers in space: “Essentially, an entirely new mode of production using robots and automation in an advance envoy may be required.”
Resources and Sustainability
Space offers an abundance resources to be used for manufacturing, as soon as we solve the transportation and extraction challenges involved. Asteroid mining is one venture frequently cited as our future source of minerals, either by establishing bases or by using robotic mining crafts. Though considered more challenging than asteroids, the moon has gained significant interest from both governmental and private ventures. It is thought to contain a plethora of minerals, as well as helium-3 — an isotope capable of eliminating our need for fossil fuels. As NASA discovered water on the moon in 2009, it can also aid to preserve human life in space.
However, should we suddenly find ourselves with the ability to access the plentiful resources, we may face additional hurdles. Space, vast as it is, is already riddled with human junk. The Kessler effect, which refers to the danger posed by over 500,000 pieces of debris, may soon make it too risky to launch new satellites. RemoveDebris, an EU research project featuring a consortium of universities and aerospace companies, is testing a suite of technologies to address the growing problem before it halts us in our tracks.
Additional questions regarding sustainability involves property rights and exploitation. Ram Jakhu and Maria Buzdugan, professors at the Institute of Air and Space Laws at McGill University, pose the following conundrum: “Should it [the future needs of exploitation of space resources] remain the exclusive province of state governments; should the private sector take over such space activities; or should a public-private partnership type of venture be encouraged?”
Forging Onwards
There’s no end in sight for our expansion into space. Though riddled with potential problems and challenges to overcome, space has become a private industry in its own right. Wooten writes, “Today, a vibrant private sector consists of scores of companies working on everything from commercial spacecraft and rocket propulsion to space mining and food production. The next step is working to solidify the business practices and mature the industry.”
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