Delays to SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Could Cause NASA to Lose Access to the ISS
The launch debut for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been postponed to March 2019, according to sources working with the issue. However, this could potentially create a direct scheduling conflict with the SpaceX’s operational debut of Falcon Heavy, also scheduled for no earlier than March 2019.
Moreover, delays to the Commercial Crew Program continue to arise, which increases the likelihood that NASA will lose it’s access to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020. SpaceX’s critical missions depend entirely on the support of the Kennedy Space Center-located Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A). This creates logistical problems that are likely to delay Falcon Heavy’s second launch until Crew Dragon is in orbit safely.
At the beginning of December 2018, SpaceX was supposedly looking at a mid-January 2019 launch debut for Crew Dragon. However, at the end of December, that date had been pushed back to no earlier than (NET) end of January. But, then by the end of January, it had been pushed to late-February and again to NET March 2019. In short, the launch debut for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has essentially been postponed indefinitely for the last two months.
Of course, the US government’s longest shutdown in history (35 days) caused some delays since a significant proportion of mission-critical work has to do with substantial NASA reviews of SpaceX and Crew Dragon’s launch preparedness, but the majority of the 60+ day DM-1 delay can most likely be linked to the complexity of the tasks they must accomplish. For instance, it is the first time SpaceX has ever tried a launch directly related to human spaceflight, and it is the first time NASA has been in charge (more or less) of a US astronaut launch in over 7.5 years. Therefore, these significant delays are not surprising even if they are disappointing.
Perhaps, the most significant consequence to delaying DM-1’s launch by at least two-months could be the many ways it ties into delays of SpaceX’s in-flight abort (IFA) test and first manned launch (DM-2). This will, in turn, affect NASA’s ability to launch US astronauts once again independently. Seeing as SpaceX’s DM-2 is expected to take place approximately six months after DM-1 and that the final certification of Crew Dragon for official astronaut launches should take an additional 2–3 months, these delays are causing NASA to come dangerously close to losing assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS).
As per a report from July 2018, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) performed a general evaluation of the Commercial Crew Program and NASA’s human spaceflight program and concluded that NASA would lose assured access to the ISS in November 2019 if Boeing and SpaceX keep suffering delays and are unable to become certified by then. This is a direct result of NASA’s dependence on Russian Soyuz launches to get to and from the ISS. These launch and return service contracts have no replacements (besides SpaceX and Boeing). However, GAO remarked that NASA could push the loss of assured access to January 2020, but that might still be cutting it too close if SpaceX’s DM-1 delay continue past March.
Before DM-1 was pushed from NET January to NET March 2019, SpaceX was aiming for an In-Flight Abort test about three months after DM-1 (it will reuse DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule), DM-2 was set for six months after DM-1 (NET June 2019), and NASA certification plus the first operational astronaut launch (PCM-1) was set for as fast as two months after DM-2 (August 2019).
Of course, delays to DM-1 will most likely cause subsequent delays to the Crew Dragon launches since DM-2, and its many associated reviews are directly dependent on DM-1. Furthermore, the same relationship exists between PCM-1 and DM-2. Therefore, Crew Dragon’s two-month delay most likely means that SpaceX’s NASA certification will only happen no earlier than October 2019, which gives NASA just a 90-day buffer before US presence aboard the ISS goes from 50% (3 astronauts) to 0%.
These unexpected delays on the Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch will also affect the operational launch debut of Falcon Heavy, which is focused on placing the continuously delayed Arabsat 6A satellite into orbit NET March 7th, 2019 (at the absolute earliest). DM-1 is also aiming for a launch sometime in March, which causes significant issues: there is only one launch pad for both Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon, and the on-site hangar support schedule-critical Falcon Heavy prelaunch work as well as Crew Dragon launch preparations at the same time.
However, it is possible that SpaceX integration technicians can complete the process of swapping out Crew Dragon and Falcon 9, altering the transport/erector (T/E), finishing the Falcon Heavy booster integration, and installing Falcon Heavy on the T/E fast enough to enable simultaneous DM-1 and Arabsat 6A processing. There is also a chance that an extraordinarily refined but risky alternative plan could be the answer to this logistical problem. For instance, SpaceX could move Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 to Pad 39A a week or more before launch, which would give Falcon Heavy enough space for full integration, and the Falcon 9’s successful launch would clear the T/E and enable it to be rolled back into 39A’s hangar for Falcon Heavy installation.
But the most probable (and least risky) result is an indefinite delay for Falcon Heavy Flight 2, only after the successful launch of Crew Dragon.
Photo credit: SpaceX
