What is a ‘Super Blood Wolf Moon’ and How Does it Affect Earth?
If you live in the Americas or western Europe, you’re in for a treat. On the evening of January, 20 and early morning of January 21 you can catch a ‘super blood wolf moon.’
But what is a ‘super blood wolf moon?’
First, there will be a ‘supermoon’, which is when a full moon takes place while the moon is at or near perigee — its closest point to us as it orbits our planet, a blood moon is so-called for the reddish hue that the shadow of the Earth casts on the full moon, and wolf moon is just the nickname for a full moon in January, so that part has no real bearing on this event.
Thus, a super blood wolf moon means we’re going to have a total lunar eclipse, where the sun, earth, and moon will be in a straight line for a short time, while the moon is also near perigee and has a reddish hue.
Could this alignment affect our planet somehow?
There is evidence that the tidal effect of the moon on the Earth — the moon’s gravitational pull on our planet, which is strongest during full and new moons — does impact seismic activity.
For example, a study published in Nature Geoscience in 2016 discovered that the tides that happen during full and new moons might be linked to a slightly higher chance of high magnitude earthquakes globally. However, a complex web of factors is still responsible for triggering tremors and determining their intensity. Also, a more recent analysis of earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 8.0 found no correlation with the lunar cycle.
The USGS state that earthquakes could be up to three times more likely during high tides, however, the agency emphasized that that means they’re still doubtful.
In general, the background probability is very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very little chance.
Thus, the overall chance of an earthquake hitting a particular location during a full moon remains so small that worrying about a moon-quake connection is sort of like leaving town every time there’s a thunderstorm because you’re scared of the increased risk of a plane crashing into your house.
That’s true for any added gravitational influence that comes with a supermoon: the difference is so small, mainly when we’re talking about affecting huge tectonic plates and deep pockets of magma.
Moreover, the USGS stated that there might be a correlation between the lunar cycle and eruptions of Hawaiian volcanoes, but with the same warning that is trying to predict eruptions around tides or the moon would be absurd.
They stated that statistically, it is approximately a 1% chance that any tidal maximum will affect the start of an eruption.
When it comes to the eclipse part of the equation, consider that the sun, earth, and moon lining up doesn’t change the gravitational impact of the sun on the Earth — we remain just as far away from our star as usual and there is indeed no proof that the geometry of a straight line has geological implications.
Previous predictions of eruptions linked to lunar events have often failed to come true, while retrospective “links” tend to be no more than excellent examples of confirmation bias.
Supermoons and lunar eclipses are both relatively common celestial events. They’ve come and gone numerous times without triggering an apocalypse. So there’s no need to worry come January 20th, head outside and enjoy the stunning view.
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