The BTC price of this week proved our prediction of the huge decrease is correct: Bitcoin price has decreased from US$11500 to USD$9500, Fear & Greed Index (FGI) was minimum 11, which was similar in the bear market in 2018. This week let’s use the fundamental index to analyze the trend of this week.
Daily trade amount
The rebound appears on Daily trade amount, the newest amount is 330K, we will continuously monitor this index to see if it can have an increase. The daily trade has been slowly increased since February 2018, it represents the core value of the Bitcoin while supporting the Bitcoin price.
Daily average hashrate
Bitcoin hashrate has gone back to 60EH/s, some of the miners have paused the mining work. The pause of the mining work means the miners don’t need to sell out the Bitcoin in order to pay for the electricity. it’s good news in the short term, as hashrate is one of the fundamental indicators for the Bitcoin price, the trend of a growing hashrate since last year, implies a secure long-term investment for Bitcoin.
Active address and new address
The former refers to any address that has made multiple transactions, while the latter refers to any address where just one transaction has been made. Both indexes don’t have a significant increase this week.
Addresses containing a small amount of BTC
The number of addresses containing 0.1 to 1 BTC. Currently, 20,214 addresses contain such a small amount of BTC, which has increased 10K since last week. Under normal circumstances, a rapid increase in the number of addresses containing a small amount of BTC can be one of the indicators to the existence and the length of a bull trend.
USDT Snapshot
USDT has turned to decrease after last week’s increase, the rate of the decrease was 0.5%. USDT is usually demanded in funding entrance, but the current entered fund is not enough in stabilizing the price increase.
Google Search Trend
A continuing decline in Google search trend for “Bitcoin” showed that the public enthusiasm towards Bitcoin has cooled down.
Fear & Greed Index (FGI)
We will start to take FGI as a analysis reference since there is an extreme change happened during last week. FGI is taking the fluctuating rate as reference, which means the level of fluctuation is used to rate the risk as the investing emotion is related with the fluctuation.
Normally, FGI is defined as Greed when it gets to 90, or defined as Fear when it is below 10. We can see there are 2–3 times of extreme Fear or Greed during a year from the historical data. When BTC price increased to US$14K in the end of the last June, FGI has reached 95, when BTC price rapidly decreased to US$9.5K last week, FGI was 11.
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The fundamental data has experienced a decline during last week, made less possibility of the increase in price. But the price will more likely to be stable around US$10K-11K according to the stabilization in FGI, be careful in the rapid rebound.
Lastly, the BTC option from Bakkt will be launched on Sept 23, funds from traditional financial institution may start to enter, Let’s looking forward the coming of September.
