Will RJ Barrett Ever Make An All-Star Game?
Among all active players in the NBA, there are 63 who have been named to an All-Star team at some point in their careers. Will RJ Barrett add his name to that list? The numbers say it’s now or probably never for him.
The recent trade of Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks has left the NBA community wondering about the future of Jrue Holiday. Where does he get traded to and for what kind of trade package? As a New York Knicks fan, the idea of having Holiday on the team interested me.
Jalen Brunson, our All-Star caliber point guard, needs a strong perimeter defender at the shooting guard position. Fellow Knicks fans, please don’t bite my head off. I know Quentin Grimes is an outstanding defensive player. This is just hypothetical. But when diving into it, the only way we could make a trade for Holiday work, money-wise, would be having to trade away either Julius Randle or RJ Barrett in a package. As their salaries match up with the incoming salary of Holiday.
Randle isn’t going anywhere, he’s coming off his 2nd All NBA appearance in 3 years, and we have no PF depth behind him. But RJ is another story. He’s been divisive amongst Knicks fans for years now. Many fans still believe he’s got All-Star potential, and others think he’s already plateaued as a player. Won’t get that much better, won’t get that much worse.
As an RJ supporter, I think he can still be a guy who snags an All-Star at least once in his career. But due to his continued inefficiency, it’s getting harder and harder to see him making that leap.
So, I wanted to see if any other players in the league took a similar path to him and eventually made the leap to the next level.
The Numbers
There are 63 active players in the league right now with at least 1 All-Star appearance. Of course, that number could change if free agents like Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, or John Wall get signed, but for now, I’m just using guys on an active roster.
Of those 63 players, I researched the age and the season they made their first All-Star game.
The average age when these players made their first ASG was 23.4 years old, and the average season when they got named was Season 4.46.
The youngest a player who made the All-Star team was LeBron James, Luka Doncic, LaMelo Ball, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson all tied at 20 years old in their 2nd season.
The oldest was Mike Conley, making his first ASG in Season 14 at 33 years old!
So, to make it easy, let’s say the average All-Star player makes his first appearance by 23 years old in his 4th season.
RJ Barrett is 23 years old, and entering his 5th season.
That puts him right in that sweet spot, age-wise, where guys take that leap to the next level. But being in his 5th season, he is already past the median of 4.46.
Of the 63 active All-Star players, only 15 made their first appearance after Season 5, which isn’t surprising but worth noting. The odds of RJ making an All-Star game after this year plummet.
Diving further in, I went back the past 20 years and took a look at all the Top 3 draft picks in their respective drafts. Only ONCE in the past 20 years have all Top 3 picks made an All-Star team. In 2016, with Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and Jaylen Brown each making it at least once since being drafted.
This is noteworthy because RJ, as the 3rd pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, has already seen the two guys drafted in front of him, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, both make the ASG.
It’s not looking great for those who have lofty All-Star expectations for RJ, I’ll admit. The worst part is RJ has legitimately shown flashes of brilliance during his young career. We’ve seen him have these stretches for weeks at a time where his shot was falling, and he was playing great defense.
Take the most recent playoffs, for example. Despite starting poorly against Cleveland, he improved and played well in the final 9 playoff games for the Knicks, averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game during that stretch.
It all circles back to inefficiency, his Achilles heel. Back in 2002, people wouldn’t care about RJ’s inefficiency because players like Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson also took a lot of shots. But in today’s league, scoring 20 points on 16 shots won’t get you any praise.
I sincerely hope RJ can break the mold and turn into that star player New York thought he would be when they drafted him. The numbers are just not in his favor at the moment, but the great thing about growth is that it’s not a predetermined outcome.
There are no guarantees for any player, as growth is not a linear process. RJ’s teammate Julius Randle didn’t take that All-Star leap until he was 26 years old in his 7th season. People thought another teammate of RJ’s, Jalen Brunson, deserved to make his first All-Star game last year. He was 26 years old and in his 5th season at the time.
It all depends on the work RJ puts in moving forward. All these numbers and odds don’t mean anything when it comes to measuring a player’s heart.
