11.02 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker — Final ‘Support Index Gap’ Averages
A pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates
This post from 10.28 summarized these same averages 7 days out. I decided to do one more post through 11.01 with updated numbers. Again, please refer to our 10.28 post for all summary/background info on this project.
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Support Index Gap
The “Support Index Gap” is a metric that represents the gap in support for one candidate over the other based on a 50/50 scale from our social intelligence and language dataset in each battle ground state. We have presented the data in daily, weekly, and monthly averages/trendlines to demonstrate shifts in this metric between Trump and Biden over time.
This metric shows a postive Biden gap in each state, therefore, the numbers have been presented in terms of Biden’s positive support gap. Any number (unless it is negative, which would mean the gap flipped to Trump) represent a gap in favor of Biden.
(4, +4 or 4% would mean a 52 to 48 measurement of a Biden favorable Support Index Gap)
We have presented the data in three grouping:
— the day-by-day gap trendline from 7.5–11.01
— 7 day gap averages compared week-by-week from September and so far into October.
— September and October monthly averages
Post election, we will be comparing this metric to final polling and actual results to judge how useful it can be in the future and what adjustments might need to be made for greater accuracy.
7 Day Averages Compared Week-By-Week
September and October Monthly Averages
Monthly Averages Compared to Final Day Countdown Trends
7 Day Average Week-By-Week Trendlines
September and October Monthly Averages
7.5–11.0 1 Daily Trendlines
Overview
To date, and in addition to other data, we have have aggregated, scored, and analyzed 2,706,926 Trump and Biden supporter social media posts that contain 61,425,564 words.
This language dataset, along with candidate and topic/issue sentiment analysis, helps define our “Support Index Gap.”
Developed along with our technology partners, (Eyesover Technologies and Relative Insight) the “Support Index Gap” represents an analysis of the gap in measured support from battleground states between Biden and Trump based on social media posts from voters in those states.
Through analyzing and comparing the trends in the this gap over time we have attempted to establish a narrative around the election on a state-by-state basis.
— 1,244,808 Trump Supporter Posts
— 28,001,730 Trump Supporter Words
— 1,462,118 Biden Supporter Posts
— 33,423,834 Biden Supporter Words
Recent WSJ Coverage
Our work on this ongoing analysis was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal:
Election 2020 Polls: Startups Pitch Themselves as Alternatives
Many campaigns, political groups still pay for polling, but use online surveys and social-media analysis to understand voters
Recent Coverage in The New Yorker
Can We Trust the Polls?
Polls are not predictive; they are snapshots taken at a particular moment in time — one that will have passed by the time a poll reaches the public.
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has advised other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
