11.13 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker — Final ‘Support Gained/Lost’ Aggregates
A pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates
Please read the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Project Background
Support Gain/Lost Overview
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
These numbers are based on holistic expressions of support gained/lost, or shifts to neutral, from a unique social account. Only shifts in categorization are registered per social account after an initial signal is measured. (EX: a post from someone supporting Trump is not counted two days in a row.)
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Our last update was published here on this metric through October 10th:
Final numbers from July 5 through November 3rd:
— Trump Total Support Gained: 245,140
— Trump Total Support Lost: -174,082
— Trump Support Net: 71,058
— Biden Total Support Gained: 162,136
— Biden Total Support Lost: -143,087
— Biden Support Net: 19,072
State BY State Trend lines
Arizona:
Colorado:
Florida:
Iowa:
Maine:
Michigan:
Minnesota:
North Carolina:
New Hampshire:
Nevada:
Pennsylvania:
Texas:
Wisconsin:
Recent WSJ Coverage
Our work on this ongoing analysis was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal:
Election 2020 Polls: Startups Pitch Themselves as Alternatives
Many campaigns, political groups still pay for polling, but use online surveys and social-media analysis to understand voters
Recent Coverage in The New Yorker
Can We Trust the Polls?
Polls are not predictive; they are snapshots taken at a particular moment in time — one that will have passed by the time a poll reaches the public.
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has advised other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
