Assessing Decisions: Is There Such a Thing as a Bad Decision?
How many times have you mulled over your decisions either internally or verbally externally?
Most often we do the former. Our thoughts take us on a range of emotions regarding the outcomes of our daily decisions.
Typically we asses whether or not we made a “good” decision based on the outcome of that decision. If things turned out favorable for us then we automatically say it was a great decision.
On the other hand, if they don’t we immediately say that it was a bad decision. We beat ourselves up about how we could have done a better job of making that decision. We provide alternate outcomes and scenarios in our heads regarding those previously optional decisions.
Is this a healthy/just way to examine our capacity to make decisions?
Can we follow this methodology in every scenario?
Lately, I’ve been encouraged to challenge this former way of decision analysis.
Let’s Turn To The Game of Poker
After listening to an investment real estate podcast, they had a guest speaker on by the name of Annie Duke. Annie is a four-time World Series poker champion who has won over 4 million dollars worth of tournament prizes.
In addition to being a champion poker player, she is also has a PhD in psychology from the University of Pennsylvania. Her experiences in both fields have shaped her concept of decision making; particularly on the poker side.
She says that oftentimes she would try and study her previous hands of poker to see how she could have played the hand better. Yet, the more she did this the more she realized that it was not a clearly revealed science.
Unlike football or chess, where the players and pieces of the game are openly displayed for all opponents to see, the game of poker has a high level of concealment working among the players and the table (much like life).
She began to realize that while she may have won a poker hand, it didn’t automatically mean that she played that hand executing the best decisions.
The reverse goes the same for the hands she lost.
She may have played her hand well (exercising good decisions) but still lost the game. Yet she wouldn’t know that just by assessing the outcome — which was the loss.
She journeys us through this very concept she calls “resulting” in her book Thinking In Bets.
After hearing her detail her revelation of this, I was moved to begin using the same outlook for myself.
Now, I don’t fully ascribe to this approach in every situation. As I know there are some decisions that are not opaque. Meaning, it is clear we should not make that decision.
For example, the other day I was driving by a liquor store and the tall marketing signage had the phrase:
“Just because it’s a bad idea doesn’t mean it won’t be a good time.”
Now to me, their entices to make bad choices for the sake of making memories while drunk is not the best decision. Despite what others may feel.
Let’s Turn Back To The Game of Life
But if we switch gears and talk about the more fluid and grey outcomes, I see where this could be a healthy approach to look at things. Not only does having this outlook create a space to give yourself more grace, but it is a way to better appreciate the outcomes of the decision.
Takefor example, a decision to move to another state or country.
One day you decide you’re up for a new life elsewhere. Based on your research (or lack thereof) you think its a pretty good decision. So you pack up, get there and start doing life.
As time goes by, you find out you don’t like the place or things aren’t what you’d hope they would be. Of course, your first reaction is to curse yourself and say something like geesh I’m so stupid, why did I make this bad decision to come here?
This is where I think the concept of resulting should kick in. If we use this method, we can appreciate the risk without automatically denouncing the decision as a bad one.
We can assess the decision as just that - a decision (in its most neutral state).
Putting too much emphasis on whether or not it was good or bad, will only work counterproductively in our lives and often stagnant us. It can stifle us to trust ourselves to make future decisions because we are scared that it will be a bad decision.
But when we succinctly understand the mental behaviors of “resulting” we can then move into a healthier space of sound decision making and assessment of those decisions.
