Almost 3 months ago I wrote the post below, fearful of an outcome I didn’t dare believe would happen but acutely aware of the terrible consequences of the outcome.

I argued as strongly as I could that Britain had a unique opportunity to commit itself to the EU and for it to take a leadership role in EU reform to which many in Europe were looking forward.

Today I’m very sad indeed. Sad for the young people of the UK and Europe — many of whom had no say. Sad for those pensioners whose pensions have been ravaged by the stock exchange crash. Sad for all those who will lose their jobs and sad for the inevitable swing to the right that will now occur in the UK and beyond. This result will hit the poorest and the most vulnerable.

Ironically my own Industry (Early Stage Technology) which fought really hard to make the arguments for Remain, will be the most resilient. The Internet knows no borders. The world is hyper-connected and Entrepreneurs will continue to use their imaginations, skills and determination to find opportunities to build great businesses which improve the lives of many.

We’re in for a long period of uncertainty. It is impossible to predict how it will evolve. But that same spirit which the Brexiteers called upon for the UK to go it alone will now be harnessed by many to move closer to our European neigbours and to build stronger bridges in defiance of the luddites.

As for London, our 12 reasons to be excited about London still very much apply………https://medium.com/localglobe-notes/12-reasons-to-be-excited-about-london-62060110eb84#.5q2uz0y7a

Brexit — If its broke, then fix it!

Thanks goodness it will all be over by June 23rd. Or will it? The chaos may just be beginning.

On June 23rd, the UK will hold an IN/OUT referendum to stay or leave the European Union. I’m personally very fearful of the outcome. In my view, leaving would be not much short of disastrous. This post doesn’t dwell on all the reasons why the UK should NOT leave. These have been well and truly documented — eg Economist’s analyses — The Brexit Delusion, Why the Markets fear Brexit .. and their cover article: “Brexit, Bad for Britain, Europe and the West.”

Here, I want to argue for the positive reasons for staying IN.

The majority of citizens of the EU would like to see it reformed, see the note below summarising a recent poll by the European Commission itself.

In order to effect change or reform what’s needed is leadership.

There are strident voices coming from multiple quarters — most with personal axes to grind — screaming their preference, often with distorted or misleading statistics.

The major criticism I hear about the remain campaign is that it focuses on the risks of leaving, the dire consequences and is therefore perceived as a negative campaign. Just like the one that was run to keep Scotland within the union.

There are a number of positive reasons for wanting to remain in the European Union the biggest of these is that it is time for the UK to take a strong leadership role in the EU. When we entered the ‘club’ it was as one of the ‘sick men’ of Europe — needing IMF bailouts. It was an economic union dominated by France and the Common Agricultural Policy. We are living in a very different world today. Britain, along with Germany are showing the way forward — both with strong and growing economies, with low unemployment and both espousing enterprise as the driving force for growth and prosperity.

Although the negotiations conducted by David Cameron and George Osborne failed to deliver to expectations (they were never going to!), its clear that they have made good friends and allies among many European leaders. Its equally clear that many of the European citizens have similar concerns about the EU’s bureaucracy and unwarranted interference in domestic affairs — without wishing to leave. (see the note below summarising a recent poll by the European Commission itself)

Continental Europe may believe in the ideal of a united Europe more than the Britain does, but there are many in the EU who want to see substantial reform, who are equally frustrated with the bureaucracy, the interference and the cost of running the enterprise.

In order to effect change or reform what’s needed is leadership.

Perhaps they value more the peace and prosperity that freedom of movement, capital and trade has brought more than we do…and perhaps they are more far sighted. But all want change and the UK could help — through decisive commitment and leadership — to bring about that change.

This constant carping from the sidelines may have got the UK some very important ‘opt-outs’ but has not allowed it to influence reform very much.

Were we to vote overwhelmingly to stay IN, the UK could take its rightful position at the heart of Europe and help lead the change necessary to shift the EU of the past to the Europe of the future.

We are living in an increasingly connected world and one where economic power is shifting rapidly eastwards. Cross border regulation — involving everything from security (cyber and otherwise) to banking and patents will be negotiated between the major power blocks USA, Europe and China. It is naive to think that Britain has the clout to exercise much influence in these discussions.

Of course, as those die hard colonialists maintain, we will always be consulted — being the 5th largest economy (for now). We will however be on the fringes and reliance on the special relationship with the US is a foolish long term dependency.

Now is the time to sit at the top table, lead from the front and change the EU for the better. Its time to see the EU less in terms of “us vs them”. Time to stop measuring immediate benefit vs cost without seeing and appreciating the bigger picture — the maintenance of peace within Europe, the advancement of under developed regions, the creative and culturally rich power block.

Finally, I do need to end with the introspective, self interested arguments and play the ‘balance sheet game’ of who loses more?, what does it cost? Do immigrants add or subtract from the public purse?

Its disappointing to hear some intelligent people actually argue that Britain will be better off economically outside the EU. The facts would indicate the exact opposite — and the crash in the value of the £ following the starting gun of the campaign is one pretty clear demonstration of the folly of this belief.

For me the very simple trade equation says it all. The EU’s exports to the UK amount to a little over 10% of their total worldwide exports. The UK’s exports to the EU constitute over 50% of our total exports. Half of our exports would be under threat! Even a small reduction would be pretty devastating.

In my own narrow world, London has become the hub for tech startups in Europe — it is a magnet for talent for engineers, developers from France to Poland, from Estonia to Greece. I can’t imagine the consequences of restrictions of free movement across the EU but they can’t be good. There is a real risk of the centre of gravity for Tech and Banking shifting from London to Berlin and London to Frankfurt respectively.

Incoming investment in the UK is a significant job provider and a major strength of our economy. Lets not kid ourselves that we’d be as an attractive location without unfettered access to the entire EU.

The counter to these economic arguments go something like this: ‘we’ll do a trade deal like Norway or Canada’ — how naive a solution is this to the problem of being outside. Tariffs may be agreed but does anyone who has run a business really believe that in choosing where to place contracts, where to favour one’s business, that Britain would be preferred to another EU country?

We’ve been pushed into having this referendum by a right wing, jingoistic party (UKIP) who looked for a while to be a real threat. Lets hope we are not sleep walking into chaos.

Note: In Spring 2015, the European Commission asked the following question of its citizens: Do you tend to trust the European Union? Predictably only 29% of Brits answered yes. Only Greece had a lower percentage of Yes’s. BUT France (31%), Spain (35%), Italy (35%) and Germany (39%) had not many more. The people of Europe want and need change — the UK’s commitment to the Union can help make that happen.