Yelp: Coronavirus Economic Impact Report, April 2

Coronavirus is quickly reshaping every corner of the U.S. local economy — and Yelp data is reflecting the upheaval in real time.

Consumers are responding to fears of infection, social distancing recommendations, stay-at-home orders, and mandated business closures by changing their behavior around eating, shopping, planning their finances, managing their homes and new home offices and gyms, and taking care of their health and wellness. The changes, like the pandemic that spawned them, haven’t hit all of the U.S. in the same way, though every state now reflects, to some degree or another, the new reality of the coronavirus economy. And a big part of that shift is what and where Americans are eating — including a shift in the balance between dining in and dining out by three hundred times in just a couple of weeks.

Restaurants that specialize in delivery and takeout appear to have weathered the storm better than food businesses that until a month ago were focused more on dining in. Chicken-wing places and pizzerias have gained (up 103% and 88% respectively in share of seasonally adjusted daily U.S. consumer actions since March 1), while French restaurants, breakfast-and-brunch places, and hot-pot spots have dropped (down 59%, 44%, and 42%).

When consumers are buying food for their own preparation at home, they’re looking to stock up at local businesses with a range of provisions, or suppliers already set up to deliver. Community-supported agriculture businesses, grocery stores, fruits & veggies stores, and butchers all are gaining share of the food business (up 455%, 186%, 129%, and 96%), while breweries, gelato places, and street vendors are struggling (down 71%, 49%, and 46%).

As people settle in for the long-haul at home that continues to shift interest in the local economy. More time at home means people are looking for ways to occupy their time, which has increased the share of attention paid to stores to buy fitness and exercise equipment, pet breeders, and television service providers (up 547%, 144%, and 99%). More consumers are also turning to tobacco shops, cannabis clinics, and vape shops (up 120%, 118%, and 115%) in these anxious times. Bridal stores and shopping centers are declining (down 66% and 61%).

Staying at home doesn’t mean forgoing leisure and arts. Strip clubs and art galleries have gained (up 116% and 73%); businesses in both categories have found ways to adapt to the new economic climate, by using virtual platforms to connect with customers in their homes.

The economic fallout is playing out in shifting interest in financial categories. Mortgage lenders have gained consumer interest (up 129%); tax services are down (35%) since the extension of the tax-filing deadline was announced.

The pandemic has also left its mark on health and wellness categories. Rising interest in hospitals and skilled nursing (up 95% and 156%), and a decline in interest in reflexology and massage therapy (down 49% and 37%), reflect people’s prioritization of emergency and home care over in-person elective treatment that involves human contact.

Local economies have shifted in line with the national moves, matching the rise and fall of categories nationwide.

New York State has by far the nation’s biggest outbreak, and its economy has shifted more than any other state’s. Washington State had the first confirmed case of coronavirus, and also has undergone one of the biggest economic shifts. The other states whose economies have transformed the most are mostly in the Northeast or on, or near, the West Coast. Midwestern states also are starting to make big moves. Things haven’t changed as much in the Mountain States and the Southeast — including in Florida and Georgia, sites of two of the nation’s largest outbreaks.

Nationally, when people order restaurant food, it’s overwhelmingly at home. Searches for delivery or takeout have accelerated relative to searches for dine-in options that until recently were prevalent. Over the past week, the ratio of the rolling seven-day total of searches for dine-out options to the equivalent number of searches for dine-in options has more than doubled. The shift started when people were first encouraged to avoid crowds, and accelerated when restaurants in some jurisdictions were ordered to shut their doors and offer only takeout and delivery options. It reflects both a large increase in interest in delivery and a large decrease in interest in holding a seat at restaurants.

Methodology

Business Category Changes

To pinpoint how the coronavirus is affecting the economy, we looked at which types of businesses (categories) have risen or fallen in interest relative to others in the same general line of business (root categories). So, for instance, we compare French restaurants, dim sum places, and pizzerias to each other, in terms of their share of all interest for restaurants.

Our measure of interest is consumer interest, measured in terms of daily U.S. counts of a few of the many actions people take to connect with businesses on Yelp: viewing business pages or posting photos or reviews.

We started with the 500 biggest U.S. categories by consumer actions. Among those, we selected the biggest gainers and biggest decliners in terms of their seasonally adjusted share of all root category consumer actions since March 1. Then we chose representative ones to show the trend, which we’re charting from March 1 through March 30.

Map

Which states are most closely reflecting the coronavirus economy at the national level? To check, we looked at the cumulative change in seasonally adjusted consumer-action share by state for the categories that had the biggest national rises and declines. The more these indicators of the coronavirus effect moved within each state since March 11, which is when major local economic shifts began, the more that state’s economy transformed in response to the coronavirus. We’re mapping the economic impact alongside the scope of the outbreak, with the measures updated through Tuesday, March 30, and Wednesday, March 31, respectively.

Dine In vs. Dine Out

Consumers often indicate their intent when searching for restaurants by choosing filters for places that offer Yelp Reservations and Waitlist for dining in, or delivery and takeout for dining out. We’ve been tracking this measure nationally every day to see how restaurant meals are moving into the home, and chart its progression from March 1 through March 30. The data is calculated on a rolling seven-day basis, and compared to the level on March 8.

If you’d like additional detail on how the economy is shifting, please contact press@yelp.com.

Downloadable static graphics can be found here.

Graphics by The DataFace.

See the latest report at YelpEconomicAverage.com. Previous reports: March 27, March 24, March 20.

Selected media coverage: CNBC, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Eater, The Verge, Axios