Putin is Unpredictable Strategist: Part 1

Accessing Putin from traditional western perspective may not get him well. He is extra-smarter than you think.

I hope you still remember that when President Obama was reluctantly considering to order military strike to Syria in September 2013 because he believed al-Assad crossed the red line he set, I was convinced that Russia is going to lose its naval base in Tartus very soon. But I was wrong. Surprisingly, Russia did not lose their naval base and even managed to gain upper hand in the crisis.

Look what! al-Assad is accelerating multiple attacks to drive the rebel out of his territory and he is pretty looking good now. What is more? he is even planning to hold election on June 3, 2014 and may get reelected again. If Putin had ever successfully diffused the Syria crisis when it is on the verge of war by strategic moves or by writing op-ed in NYTimes, this is the fruit he is going to have on his plate for later-dinner. What did he done?

He did four things:

1) Kept supplying necessary stuff and weapons to Syria even if he might lose Syria.

2) Defending Syria in international and diplomatic front, and try to unjustified any attempt that the west is make to intervene.

3) Persuading west and (war-weary)American public that the decision to strike Syria is premature and fruitless for them.

4) He did not interrupt the west when they are making mistake and he strike in with precision when Secretary John Kerry made wrong move — just once or a gaffe — but that is good enough to bring “win” for him.

Bum! he closed the case and put the Russia into leadership position to settle the later-part-actions — Assad to give up chemical weapons.

Results?

1) Possible war prevented.

2) Russian naval base was as per usual.

3) Assad is in control.

4) Rebel is losing momentum on the ground.

5) Syria will hold election on June 3, 2014.

6) Gave message to his ally that he is reliable.

7) Made a few hint to the world that he is coming — strategically.