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On Our Inability to Read Minds

Photo by Wyron A

Here’s an opener I’ve used in many of my lectures:

“Can we predict, with a high level of confidence, the exact response of an individual, given an external stimulus?”

The question often confuses a few of the participants.

Essentially, I am asking if we can guess (with accuracy!) someone’s reaction to a certain action.

Take the following simple example: can I know what you’ll do after I give you $1,000? Well, I can most likely correctly assume that you will be happy, but I cannot be sure of what exactly you will do after my charitable donation.

I don’t know if you will decide to give me a hug in the heat of the moment, call your mom to tell her the good news, go grab a beer to celebrate, or do something I couldn’t even think of.