If you’re a satellite operator, there are plenty of things that keep you awake at night. Launch problems, orbital junk on a collision course and getting zapped by a solar storm are just three of the hazards that could really ruin your day.

Of all of those risks, space weather is one of the largest. Millions of dollars of incredibly expensive equipment has been lost as a result of magnetic storms.

In 2003, a storm that hit Earth around Halloween caused more than 47 satellites to malfunction, and it’s only a matter of time before another Carrington Event occurs. In fact, one astrometeorologist believes that there’s a one in eight chance of another storm of this magnitude occurring before 2020.

Protecting satellites from these events is relatively simple — if you know that they’re coming. By turning off the highest-voltage equipment on board, avoiding software upgrades and rescheduling orbit manoeuvres, satellites can ride through these storms relatively unscathed — the orbital equivalent of hiding in a tornado shelter.

So what’s needed is a space weather forecasting tool. Towards the end of December 2013 it was announced that the UK’s Met Office would begin issuing forecasts for space as well as the Earth’s atmosphere, and several other institutions around the world offer similar services, but getting that information to satellite operators in as simple a way as possible is still a challenge.

Enter SPACECAST. For the last three years, Richard Horne of British Antarctic Survey has been leading a project that models the physics of high and low-energy electrons and protons in near-Earth space. Its goal is to provide real-time warnings of the risk to satellites in orbit.

“Despite all the advances in design, satellites are still damaged by space weather,” said Horne. “In March 2012 three satellites suffered loss of services for hours during a space weather event. Ten percent of the entire fleet were malfunctioning during the 2003 ‘Halloween’ magnetic storm.”

“Now, for the first time we can forecast radiation levels for a whole range of different orbits, from geostationary orbit to the slot region, including medium Earth orbit where there is a tremendous growth in the number of satellites,” he added. “Our new system, which is updated every hour, will help protect satellites used for navigation, telecommunications, remote sensing and other services. Nobody has done that before.”

Researchers from five European countries, working in partnership with those in the United States, will use satellite data, ground-based measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field, and state-of-the-art computer models to forecast space weather for the region where most satellites orbit the Earth — the Van Allen radiation belt.

The results will be published on the Spacecast website, where they’ll be available to anyone free of charge, so that operators can see if there’s trouble on the way and take measures to avoid it.

Horne said: “With more than 1,000 satellites in orbit it is important that the satellite industry, space insurance and Government have real-time information to help them take the necessary measures to protect satellites and the services they provide.”