To Ban Imports Or Not To Ban
Last week, after it was clear the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA)’s most recent attempt at boda boda registration had failed, the KCCA Road Supervisor Andrew Serunjogi suggested that the importation of motorcycles should be halted outright.
This is unlikely to happen; too many people are involved in the boda boda economy, and there is a long history in Uganda of promising overly-harsh crackdowns which falter quickly. However, it raises an important question — how many bodas is the right number of bodas in Kampala?
At Lubyanza, we all agree that balancing supply, demand, and riders income is key. We also all know that the “self-regulating market” isn’t doing a whole lot for people who are struggling under current economic conditions. To understand where we are in this balancing act, we should be paying attention to a few key factors.
The first of these is the utilization rate — which can be calculated as either the moving utilization rate, meaning the % of moving riders who are carrying passengers or loads, or the time utilization rate, which assesses the % of a riders working day they are moving passengers or loads. Moving utilization is essentially a measure of fuel efficiency — how much of the time is petrol being wasted on a non-productive load? According to our quarterly boda report in July, this is only 54% across the city, with surprising little variation across divisions (48%-56%) or across the day (46%-57%).
Another key factor is rider income. With boda costs at 10,000–15,000 UGX / day, plus fuel and maintenance, riders need to earn at least around 20,000 to break even. Riders often make around 30,000 UGX, taking home around $3 / day or $100 / month, but would of course like to double or triple that. Additionally, when there are too many bodas on the street is that daily profits can drop from over-competition, and the cost comes closer to the cost of a taxi (minibus) — a form of shared transport we should be supporting, instead of mode-shifting from.
Ultimately, this discussion needs a lot more research behind it — and is a big part of why we are now conducting the quarterly reports! For now, what we think we need to know to decide the appropriate number of bodas in Kampala:
· Rider numbers. This is obvious, but we still don’t know them accurately. KCCA just rebranded their registration attempt as a census — we’re hoping it works!
· Utilization rate. We need more complete and consistent data on this, including differentiated data for passenger and load carrying.
· Rider earnings. How do earnings differ per km for passenger trips and load trips? How do regular loads differ from formal delivery app loads?
Answering these questions, and understanding what we want Kampala’s transportation system to look like — is 30% of trips being by boda too high, or just right? — is how we can know if it’s time to take more drastic steps to stop the growth of bodas in Kampala.
While you’re here, we just hit our first fundraising goal for the second quarterly report — thank you so much! We’ll use this money to deliver public boda data to the masses and back up our stories with mind-boggling numbers. To donate, check out our Ko-Fi page here! All money raised goes towards paying Geofrey & Kalungi for their survey work.
