What To Watch in 2022
Last year saw significant stopping and starting for boda bodas in Uganda and across East Africa. Curfews and lockdowns continued to strangle boda bodas, while passengers avoidance of minibuses capacity limitations ironically provided a bit of a boost to boda bodas business. SafeBoda and other ride hailing operators have been stumbling, while lease-to-own models have become the norm — and now come under some scrutiny for their staggeringly high interest rates. And people still need to get to where they are going.
Tom will be watching:
1. Automatic fare calculators in Rwanda and further afield.
In 2021, Rwanda began rolling out automatic fare calculators in earnest. Requirements that drivers use some form of metering — either through ride-hailing apps or standalone meters — pushed the majority of Kigali drivers to pick up one or the other. Most went with standalone meters, which under the largest provider, Yego Motors, takes lower commissions than SafeBoda or Uber. Geofrey reminds me manipulation of the meters will undoubtedly be tried — but Rwanda has a reputation for holding to regulations much better than the moderately anarchic Ugandan market. This, in conjunction with reflector jackets with IDs, could deliver all the benefits of ride-hailing apps with less centralization and lower commissions. A key development to watch.
2. The SafePosta partnership.
While many people in Kampala were wondering what is happening at SafeBoda, and union leaders wondering if they could even exit the market, they kept going, bagging a new round of investment from Google and launching SafePosta Express. A public-private partnership to improve carrier deliveries in Kampala, SafePosta remains a bit murky in it’s actual operations (there’s not much here or here.) We’ll be watching who SafePosta serves, whether a government parastatal is a good business partner for a young tech company, and what this means for delivery and delivery drivers.
3. A third year of boda curfews.
On New Years Eve, nearly everyone got a present in the form of schools reopening, minibus-taxis return to full capacity, and the dropping of curfew. Everyone, that is, except for bodas, who will inexplicably be kept to the 7 PM curfew. This might rebalance the shifting we’ve seen away from taxis and bodas and hopefully lead to fare reductions in taxis. However, bodas will remain in a stranglehold in Uganda, while neighboring countries have accepted that bodas are a critical gear of the economy. If not lifted, this will disproportionately impact low-income Ugandans and women especially, who do not have access to cars for night-time travel and need door-to-door service in unsafe and poorly-lit neighborhoods. Expect more police shootings and monthly crackdowns as bodas and their passengers push the curfew as much as they can.
Geofrey thinks you should be watching for
4. Ever-evolving boda regulations.
For a long time there have been plans to regulate bodaboda though several attempts have been futile. For a few days in December 2021, KCCA workers moved around town announcing that with effect from January 3 they will start strict measures against unwanted boda stages. Even before January 3, some boda stages on non-motorized Luwum street were removed by KCCA.
Boda riders will be required to have a stage, a helmet, driving license, national ID, pay third party insurance, and PSV license as usual. Enforcement and compliance will, as usual, be the key issue.
Boda leaders are relentlessly working towards advocating for their stay in the Central Business District and they can show some fruits already, but they have to find a way to address internal conflicts before they hit the target — a planned merger is in the works, but it’s viability is unclear.
Any attempt to suppress boda riders directly affects accessibility. So we shall hear pro-bodaboda voices from all corners of the economy, but as usual these voices will be heard more commonly on the street than in the opinion pages of the nation’s newspapers.
As usual, boda regulation will continue to be a complicated game between boda riders, law enforcement groups, and the passengers whose movements mainly rely on bodaboda.
For now, most boda riders have mastered resisting unfriendly government regulation. We shall be watching if their resistance holds up, and if more reasonable voices in government gain some power.
5. High fuel prices vs battery charge cost.
For a few months now, fuel prices have been increasing continuously. We are yet to know if they will be increasing or reducing in 2022. What is certain so far is that the cost of charging batteries for electric motorcycles will remain stable for a long time according to Uganda’s top e-mobility company, Zembo. Electricity prices, fortunately, are typically much more stable than oil prices.
With swap stations continuously increasing in number and capacity, e-mobility will capture more attention. As long as they can overcome global supply chain issues, e-mobility companies — and e-boda drivers especially — should benefit from this environment.
6. Motorcycle sales and loan schemes.
Loan schemes are now the leading source of motorcycles owned/driven by boda riders in Kampala. They will surely continue operations despite the threats against their customers. However, failed loan payments are likely to increase if the situation in Kampala gets more hectic than usual especially due to the KCCA’s looming action against boda riders. Additionally, problems with corrupt field agents and high interest rates could come more into the open this year. The promise of lease-to-own has lost some of it’s shine, but the money has not slowed down.
