Many crypto influencers have analogized blockchain technology to the growth and eventual mass market adoption of the internet. Some even go as far as saying the collection of public blockchains that are being created today is akin to the next internet.
Using the history of the internet as a benchmark to the different phases of mass market adoption, let’s do a quick compare & contrast.
There are five stages of growth for mass market adoption from the perspective of an average user of the product or service:
- Initial point of contact
- Familiarization through learning
- Trust and understanding of its value
- Daily or regular use
- Active contribution
Internet Mass Adoption
Stage 1 — Initial point of contact
Although the underpinning of the internet stems as far back as the 1950s to when electronic computers were first designed and developed, the average American consumer was first introduced to personal computers and “The Internet” in the early 1990s. Here’s a famous clip from NBC’s morning talk show in 1994:
Around this time, Marc Andreeseen’s Netscape web browser made accessing information on the world wide web quite intuitive. America Online famously rolled out its aggressive “Try AOL for Free” marketing campaigns, sending millions of branded floppy disks and CD-ROMs to homes across the country. A year later, Microsoft’s introduction of Windows 95 made accessing the web using PCs mainstream.
Stage 2 — Familiarization through learning
Learning how to actually get online and use the internet is second nature to today’s generation, who are born into a world of WiFi, iPads, and Instagram. For the first generation of internet users, getting online was an involved process.
Remember installing modem drivers? How about identifying the right local dial-up number so you don’t have to pay long distance calling fees? After getting connected, in the pre-Google era, remember finding the right websites to visit? How about setting up a POP3 email client?
Stage 3 — Trust and understanding of its value
It takes repeat usage over a period of time before consumers fully trust a service and understand its value-add. The application of the underlying technology to solve everyday problems is an effective way to indoctrinate users.
News, finance, and weather websites replaced the need to physically pick up a newspaper. Email replaced the need to physically mail letters. eCommerce websites replaced the need to physically go to the store. Even movies, TV, and games can be streamed via the internet, replacing the different forms of accessing entertainment.
Stage 4 — Daily or regular use
Because every facet of our day-to-day can be enhanced by this large array of web services, the internet is baked into everyday life. A 2018 study found an average American checks their phone 80 times a day. Certain large technology companies have even released software to curtail this borderline addictive usage.
Stage 5 — Building and contribution
Looking at the framework, we’re past Stages 1–4 for the mass adoption of the internet. From the perspective of an average user, we are very much so already in Stage 5, where normal people are contributing code (& content) to help build the technology everyone is using.
Software engineering and web development has become a mainstream career choice. Hundreds of millions of creators across the globe produce a large portion of the content consumed by the rest of mankind.
Crypto Mass Adoption
Applying the same framework, the mass adoption for cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology is still in its early days. I’d say we are somewhere between Stage 1 and Stage 2. People have heard of crypto and blockchain, but are generally unsure of how to use it and don’t understand the value add.
The first cryptocurrency — Bitcoin — was unveiled just over a decade ago in 2009. Since then, hundreds of blockchains and thousands of coins & tokens have been introduced. Despite the sheer volume of projects, fundamental issues are still prevalent for the average American consumer:
1. Most applications of blockchain technology are still quite hard to use.
Many would agree that blockchain has a usability issue. Here’s a test — pick a random blockchain project and try explaining it to a random person on the street. The first thing you’ll notice is that even for engineers who work in this space, getting fully up to speed with the quirks of each blockchain is challenging. Now, imagine trying to explain what you’ve just learned to someone with little to no context.
2. Most applications of blockchain technology don’t solve concrete problems.
In the last few years, a lot of engineering effort has gone into protocol development, with attempts to address scalability issues. Ironically, without the correct applications of underlying technology that solves real world problems, focusing on scalability doesn’t move the ball forward.
In summary, if crypto and blockchain technology is the next internet, we are still currently in the early 1990s. Good news is, there are a lot of prominent influentials backing this movement along with many companies — like Lumina — trying to accelerate the mass adoption of crypto, by solving real world problems in ways folks like you and I understand and appreciate.
