Oscars 2018: Lucien’s Final Predictions in Every Category
It’s Oscars weekend! And this has been a very interesting year for Hollywood’s awards cycle, with some brilliant and strange films rising to the top of the conversation. Who will take home Best Picture on Sunday remains a total enigma: read on to find out what I think will be going home with gold this year.
Best Picture
Outrageous Snub: The Florida Project
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Will Win: Get Out
Variety, Deadline and THR are all calling Best Picture for Shape of Water, but I’m not buying it. Sure, Guillermo Del Toro’s soft fantasy has done really well with the bigger guilds (par SAG, which went for Billboards), but the preferential ballot for Best Picture (voters pick their №1, №2 preference etc.) will — I believe — favour a more consensus Quality Movie, maybe Dunkirk, maybe Lady Bird but more likely Jordan Peele’s extremely popular Get Out. The Best Actor nomination for Daniel Kaluuya suggested the acting block of the Academy are behind this movie, and everybody else is going to prevent Billboards from getting to the top spot. Too many people are ‘meh’ about Water. I see a repeat of Moonlight’s win last year, a low-budget surprise created by fresh black talent stealing the prize from under the more conventional Oscar movies.
Best Director
Outrageous Snub: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Could Win: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
After recent wins for his fellow Mexican directors Cuaron and Inarritu, it’s been determined that this is Del Toro’s Year, something of an apology for his 2007 loss for Pan’s Labyrinth, a supremely superior work to Shape of Water. I’d rather it be Nolan getting that apology win for, y’know, The Prestige, The Dark Knight, Inception, Interstellar and his other masterpieces, but I can only assume his time will come again.
Best Actor
Outrageous Snub: Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
No real discussion to be had here. Oldman is bad in a bad movie, but — like Del Toro and the to-be-discussed Allison Janney — is being rewarded for a body of well-liked roles. Despite a domestic violence story in his past, it seems unlikely the award will be stolen by young progeny Chalamet.
Best Actress
Outrageous Snub: Haley Lu Richardson (Columbus)
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards…)
Frances McDormand fucking rocks, and I’m glad she’s getting a second Oscar. But Saoirse Ronan gave a performance so good in Lady Bird, it undid my longtime dislike of Saoirse Ronan. That really counts for something. I’d say she still has a 30%ish chance here, but the actors really do love Billboards.
Best Supporting Actor
Outrageous Snub: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Should Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Could Win: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Will Win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Upon revisiting Three Billboards, I became somewhat convinced that Woody Harrelson is low-key giving the most impressive and measured performance in that cast. Nonetheless, Rockwell is the Ethically Complicated Alcoholic Racist so he’s getting the Oscar. May be for the best, since he typically gets far too few good roles compared to Harrelson, who will have many more chances. In the case of a mass voter turn on Billboards that nobody saw coming, I suppose the wonderful Dafoe could sneak in at a 10% chance, but it’s unlikely.
Best Supporting Actress
Outrageous Snub: Beanie Feldstein (Lady Bird)
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Good on Allison Janney. Her work on The West Wing alone was worthy of several Oscars, and it’s about time she got one. Problem is, she’s pretty poor in I, Tonya, a pretty poor film that I can’t wait to never hear about again. Nevertheless, she’s going to win, which is unfortunate for Metcalf who’s terrific in Lady Bird but — if I’m honest — I had only ever seen on Big Bang Theory prior to this year.
Best Original Screenplay
Outrageous Snub: Columbus
Should Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: Get Out
Will Win: Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Outrageous Snub: The Boss Baby
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Song
Outrageous Snub: “Visions of Gideon”
Should Win: “Mystery of Love”
Could Win: “This is Me”
Will Win: “Remember Me”
Best Original Score
Outrageous Snub: Lady Bird
Should Win: Three Billboards…
Could Win: Dunkirk
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Best Animated Feature
Outrageous Snub: Eh, it was a weak year…
Should Win: The Boss Baby
Could Win: The Boss Baby can do anything it damn well likes
Will Win: Coco
Best Editing
Should Win: Dunkirk
Will Win: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Best Visual Effects
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Best Hair & Makeup
Should Win: None of ’em
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Best Sound Editing
Should Win: Dunkirk
Will Win: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Will Win: Dunkirk
I refrain from predicting in the Foreign Language Film, Live-Action Short, Short Documentary, Animated Short or Feature Documentary categories, as I haven’t seen most of the nominated work.
The Oscars air this Sunday night, I’ll be live-tweeting them (perhaps drunkenly, perhaps not) so don’t miss that novelty. My final thoughts: I really hope Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name are rewarded more than I’m expecting them to be, because they’re magical films with more sincerity and love in single moments than there is in the entirety of Darkest Hour.
