Oscars 2019: Lucien’s Final Predictions
After several tumultuous months of anticipation, it’s finally time to lift the curtain on the 91st Academy Awards, one of the most controversial ceremonies in years. It’s a relatively weak year in terms of films nominated, but I’ve nonetheless endeavoured all winter to watch every significant feature nominee to deliver — right now — my picks and predictions in every category!
(I have not included documentary or short categories as I’ve seen few of the relevant films. Apologies.)
Best Picture
Should win: A Star Is Born
Biggest snub: Widows
Could win: Roma
WILL WIN: GREEN BOOK
Green Book is a stupid and unimportant movie (like so many of this year’s nominated films, if I’m honest), but it’s a much easier watch on a cold winter’s night than a long Spanish-language Netflix movie about an unhappy maid. Roma is the better film. Green Book will almost certainly win, in my opinion.
Best Director
Should win: Alfonso Cuaron
Biggest snub: Christopher McQuarrie
Could win: Spike Lee
WILL WIN: ALFONSO CUARON
A no-brainer.
Best Lead Actress
Should win: Lady Gaga
Biggest snub: Regina Hall
Could win: Olivia Colman
WILL WIN: GLENN CLOSE
Close’s is perhaps the worst of the five performances but she’s this year’s real Legacy Frontrunner, getting a trophy for a body of unrecognised work rather than one film. The Wife is an embarrassment I suspect many Close voters didn’t watch all the way through.
Best Lead Actor
Should win: Bradley Cooper
Biggest snub: Robert Redford
Could win: Christian Bale
WILL WIN: RAMI MALEK
There’s no reason this shouldn’t have been Cooper’s year. But for some reason voters are time and time again fooled by a toothy impersonation of an overhyped real figure, and Malek’s appalling Bohemian Rhapsody performance has somehow become a safe bet in this category.
Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Regina King
Biggest snub: Elizabeth Debicki
Could win: Amy Adams
WILL WIN: REGINA KING
Regina King definitely isn’t the best actress in Beale Street’s ensemble, but Beale Street is probably the best film in any of the acting categories this year, so I’ll take it.
Best Supporting Actor
Should win: Sam Elliott
Biggest snub: Brian Tyree Henry
Could win: Sam Elliott
WILL WIN: MAHERSHALA ALI
Mahershala Ali is excellent in Green Book, a pretty bad film. This is also just the weakest Supporting Actor lineup in several years.
Best Animated Feature
Should win: Incredibles 2
Biggest snub: Hotel Transylvania 3
Could win: Isle of Dogs
WILL WIN: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
Everyone’s underestimating how much the Academy loves Wes Anderson but, yeah, Spider-Verse is a bit of a four-quadrant phenomenon.
Cinematography
Should win: Cold War
Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Could win: Cold War
WILL WIN: ROMA
Costume Design
Should win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Biggest snub: Suspiria
Could win: Mary Poppins Returns
WILL WIN: THE FAVOURITE
Film Editing
Should win: BlackKklansman
Biggest snub: Widows
Could win: Bohemian Rhapsody
WILL WIN: VICE
Makeup & Hairstyling
Should win: Vice
Biggest snub: Thoroughbreds
Could win: Mary Queen of Scots
WILL WIN: VICE
Original Score
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Biggest snub: The Old Man and the Gun
Could win: Black Panther
WILL WIN: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Original Song
Should win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
Biggest snub: “Black Eyes” from A Star is Born
Could win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
WILL WIN: “ALL THE STARS” FROM BLACK PANTHER
Production Design
Should win: Mary Poppins Returns
Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Could win: Roma
WILL WIN: BLACK PANTHER
Sound Editing
Should win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Could win: A Quiet Place
WILL WIN: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Sound Mixing
Should win: Roma
Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Could win: Roma
WILL WIN: A STAR IS BORN
Visual Effects
Should win: Christopher Robin
Biggest snub: Venom
Could win: Ready Player One
WILL WIN: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
Adapted Screenplay
Should win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Biggest snub: Widows
Could win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
WILL WIN: BLACKkKLANSMAN
Original Screenplay
Should win: First Reformed
Biggest snub: Thoroughbreds
Could win: Green Book
WILL WIN: THE FAVOURITE
And there you go! My predictions for all the feature film categories at Oscars91.
