Oscars 2019: Lucien’s Final Predictions

After several tumultuous months of anticipation, it’s finally time to lift the curtain on the 91st Academy Awards, one of the most controversial ceremonies in years. It’s a relatively weak year in terms of films nominated, but I’ve nonetheless endeavoured all winter to watch every significant feature nominee to deliver — right now — my picks and predictions in every category!

(I have not included documentary or short categories as I’ve seen few of the relevant films. Apologies.)

Best Picture

Should win: A Star Is Born

Biggest snub: Widows

Could win: Roma

WILL WIN: GREEN BOOK

Green Book is a stupid and unimportant movie (like so many of this year’s nominated films, if I’m honest), but it’s a much easier watch on a cold winter’s night than a long Spanish-language Netflix movie about an unhappy maid. Roma is the better film. Green Book will almost certainly win, in my opinion.

Best Director

Should win: Alfonso Cuaron

Biggest snub: Christopher McQuarrie

Could win: Spike Lee

WILL WIN: ALFONSO CUARON

A no-brainer.

Best Lead Actress

Should win: Lady Gaga

Biggest snub: Regina Hall

Could win: Olivia Colman

WILL WIN: GLENN CLOSE

Close’s is perhaps the worst of the five performances but she’s this year’s real Legacy Frontrunner, getting a trophy for a body of unrecognised work rather than one film. The Wife is an embarrassment I suspect many Close voters didn’t watch all the way through.

Best Lead Actor

Should win: Bradley Cooper

Biggest snub: Robert Redford

Could win: Christian Bale

WILL WIN: RAMI MALEK

There’s no reason this shouldn’t have been Cooper’s year. But for some reason voters are time and time again fooled by a toothy impersonation of an overhyped real figure, and Malek’s appalling Bohemian Rhapsody performance has somehow become a safe bet in this category.

Best Supporting Actress

Should win: Regina King

Biggest snub: Elizabeth Debicki

Could win: Amy Adams

WILL WIN: REGINA KING

Regina King definitely isn’t the best actress in Beale Street’s ensemble, but Beale Street is probably the best film in any of the acting categories this year, so I’ll take it.

Best Supporting Actor

Should win: Sam Elliott

Biggest snub: Brian Tyree Henry

Could win: Sam Elliott

WILL WIN: MAHERSHALA ALI

Mahershala Ali is excellent in Green Book, a pretty bad film. This is also just the weakest Supporting Actor lineup in several years.

Best Animated Feature

Should win: Incredibles 2

Biggest snub: Hotel Transylvania 3

Could win: Isle of Dogs

WILL WIN: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

Everyone’s underestimating how much the Academy loves Wes Anderson but, yeah, Spider-Verse is a bit of a four-quadrant phenomenon.

Cinematography

Should win: Cold War

Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Could win: Cold War

WILL WIN: ROMA

Costume Design

Should win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Biggest snub: Suspiria

Could win: Mary Poppins Returns

WILL WIN: THE FAVOURITE

Film Editing

Should win: BlackKklansman

Biggest snub: Widows

Could win: Bohemian Rhapsody

WILL WIN: VICE

Makeup & Hairstyling

Should win: Vice

Biggest snub: Thoroughbreds

Could win: Mary Queen of Scots

WILL WIN: VICE

Original Score

Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Biggest snub: The Old Man and the Gun

Could win: Black Panther

WILL WIN: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Original Song

Should win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born

Biggest snub: “Black Eyes” from A Star is Born

Could win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born

WILL WIN: “ALL THE STARS” FROM BLACK PANTHER

Production Design

Should win: Mary Poppins Returns

Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Could win: Roma

WILL WIN: BLACK PANTHER

Sound Editing

Should win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Could win: A Quiet Place

WILL WIN: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Sound Mixing

Should win: Roma

Biggest snub: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Could win: Roma

WILL WIN: A STAR IS BORN

Visual Effects

Should win: Christopher Robin

Biggest snub: Venom

Could win: Ready Player One

WILL WIN: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

Adapted Screenplay

Should win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Biggest snub: Widows

Could win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

WILL WIN: BLACKkKLANSMAN

Original Screenplay

Should win: First Reformed

Biggest snub: Thoroughbreds

Could win: Green Book

WILL WIN: THE FAVOURITE


And there you go! My predictions for all the feature film categories at Oscars91.