Lykke 2020 Crypto Predictions
The new year is here, even according to the Chinese calendar, and there seems to be a source of renewed optimism within the crypto industry. 2019 proved to be a year of brutal reckoning, ICO fever died down and plenty of dubious projects — hiding behind the overused “utility tokens” moniker — finally faced the harsh verdict of the market. While all this seems rather negative, in hindsight, it could also be considered a blessing in disguise, a process that perhaps paved the way for a clear, more focused and productive 2020.
The Halving: A New Moon?
Let’s go straight to the main event of 2020, The Halving; at the time of writing, predicted to happen in the early days of May. Since the two previous halvings had a very positive effect on both Bitcoin’s price and value, it’s logical to assume the same narrative will get traction this year. Obviously timing the market is no simple science, but all the ingredients seem to be there for Bitcoin to make a big push as the date draws near.
Besides the block reward decrease, there’s also another promising yet overlooked event involving a soft fork proposal (which means not all nodes will be required to update, while still being backwards compatible) that could possibly bring some very important new features to Bitcoin — Schnoor signatures and Taproot schemes — both aiming to improve both privacy and scalability respectively.
The Long Wait
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that after so many disappointments, we may finally see the first Bitcoin ETF in 2020. As exchanges, brokerages and regulators all over the globe become more transparent and efficient, the arguments against a Bitcoin ETF start to disappear. The launch of such an instrument will legitimate cryptocurrencies further, and could eventually provide the means to onboard the biggest institutions on Earth, including sovereign states.
The Road to Hyperbitcoinization
Considering all previous points and with the recent launch of many different options offering both institutional grade custody and insurance services for cryptocurrency investors, one wonders if the “Hyperbitcoinization” dream will finally come true.
The concept, explained in depth in Saifedean Ammous’s book “The Bitcoin Standard” is a deep Austrian Economics influenced theory, where Bitcoin takes on the old role of gold as the central banking standard. It seems very ambitious and a little far-fetched at first, but as unchecked hyperinflation progresses in many economies around the world creating multiple maladies, digital assets may start to become irresistibly attractive as both store of value and backbones of a new economic system.
Rise of Stablecoins
Stablecoins have been one of the highlights of a rather bleak 2019. The exponential growth of this new cryptocurrency sector is very impressive to say the least. There are no less than five very reputable options, including non custodial ones like DAI, and the list is growing by the day.
Even Facebook’s Libra, with its differences, aimed for a similar road to riches. And while it has failed on launch so far, it gave us a glimpse of what could be possible.
Perhaps it won’t happen in 2020, but a popular enough stablecoin effectively knocking off Bitcoin from the top place in total market cap (which certainly sounded risible some years ago) could be in the cards soon enough.
DeFi: Not Sci-Fi Anymore
“DeFi is an abbreviation of the phrase decentralized finance which generally refers to the digital assets and financial smart contracts, protocols, and decentralized applications (DApps) built on Ethereum. In simpler terms, it’s financial software built on the blockchain that can be pieced together like Money Legos.” defipulse.com
Ethereum’s DeFi has been trending all 2019 and appears to be poised for more exponential growth in 2020 as the total number of locked funds is currently +800 million, edging closer on the one billion mark. The ecosystem presents new digital economy concepts that were only discussed or theorized about, but that now can be appreciated in real time, albeit in a small and contained scale.
DeFi is certainly establishing as one of the most promising trends, and could spawn replicas and competitors in other blockchains. One could easily see how the elusive crypto’s “killer app” may just be found not far from here.
Stacking Sats
While the Lightning Network has been rather underwhelming in terms of development lately, it’s still plowing along. Recently Twitter’s Jack Dorsey CEO endorsed the technology and mentioned Square Crypto is “focusing on Lightning!”.
Combined with other companies like Fold and Lolli, Bitcoin own’s response to Ethereum’s DeFi so far seems to be to “stack sats”, a short for stacking satoshis, the smallest Bitcoin unit. The concept is not only interesting, but it’s also a jab at credit card companies cash back rewards, as it works very similar in essence, except the rebates are in Bitcoin.
The ongoing increase in available gift cards and “refills” options give new users and “hodlers” alike great alternatives to ditch traditional financial instruments, and may also slowly but surely, prove to be another great ally for mass adoption.
