Who Will Actually Use the VisionPro?
The different paths the device may take explained in 5 minutes.
Technology is not a “when” — let alone “when will X be mainstream” — but a “when is what, used by whom, why, and to what end.” — Matthew Ball
It’s funny in a way; by early 2024, the VisionPro could be the hottest device in Silicon Valley, and certainly, one of the biggest devices from Apple. Already, the company’s promo video is the most viewed on its YouTube channel.
Yet, the only feasible market for the device seems to be developers. Apple has already halved their sales forecasts, from 1 million to just 400,000, according to a report.
But take my experience. Even if I can’t afford a device, if it’s technologically amazing, I’m going to gawk at it. So, that explains the hype.
But I’m a bit skeptical of developers using the VisionPro. Here’s why:
I. Which came first - The Chicken or The Egg?
Replace ‘chicken’ with developer and ‘egg’ with rich white guys like me (just kidding, I’m broke), and you get modern VR:
Which came first - The Developer or The User?
The problem is there are few attractive VR experiences, so users don’t buy VR devices at scale. But without users, developers don’t focus on VR. Hence, the chicken and the egg.
That leaves you with two options.
The first, is to do what Facebook/Meta does. They buy video game studios, and then let them develop VR games for Facebook. Matthew Ball notes that these studios are profitable and have the option to remain independent; but if they choose to be subsidiaries, then they can invest more aggressively — profit comes directly (from game sales) and indirectly (by driving platform adoption).
The second is to do what many developers do. They produce titles that run on both VR platforms as well as consoles, like the PS5 or Nintendo Switch. This means less drawbacks, revenue-wise, but unfortunately, it also reduces the benefit of buying VR devices, because you can get a similar experience on a normal console.
In a way, this is resemblant of the cold-start problem that plagues startups. And it's fair to predict that VisionPro could face this as well.
But, let’s just assume for a second, that Apple being the world’s biggest company and all, somehow attracts developers. So, if developers do in fact buy the Vision Pro, my question is, what the heck are they developing?
In other words, what are the use cases for VisionPro?
II. Gaming and Gamers
The use cases for VR are plentiful: VR meetings, sitting courtside at an NBA game in VR stadiums, VR productivity, watching movies in VR theaters, or even watching VR movies. So far, few of these have resonated, in part because there aren’t many experiences in the first place. (This is the chicken and the egg scenario).
But that doesn’t entirely apply to VR gaming, which has held its own — over 25% of users (1.38 million) use Meta Quest devices for gaming. These games vary, from first-person shooter games (like Fortnite, but in VR) to Beat Saber or immersive storytelling, etc.
Beat Saber — E3 2018 Announce Trailer | PS VR — YouTube
Just recently, Unity -a cross-platform gaming engine- partnered with Apple to provide support for game developers with their own beta tool. Apple has also promised to release certain titles from Apple Arcade for the VisionPro. This alone will not stop gaming from running into the chicken-and-egg problem, but it certainly helps.
Even more, the VisionPro promises a display greater than a 4k TV (and that’s for each eye), something that the industry responsible for advancing computer graphics can take advantage of.
One note to consider though: As of the end of 2022, VR gaming only made up 0.7% (in earnings) of the entire gaming industry. In other words, it’ll probably be a bit of time before VR gaming manifests itself into anything worthwhile.
III. Horizon Worlds 2.0
The one use case that’s been featured in both Meta’s Quest devices and Apple’s VisionPro has been work. And to an extent, it makes sense.
In my previous article, I mentioned Ben Thompson’s theory for VR work: with more and more people working remotely, having an extra monitor at home for less price and less space (via VR headsets) makes sense.
That is especially considering that VR can solve many of the ‘culture problems’ companies see with remote work (e.g. a lack of connection is solved by immersive meetings).
Now, VR work has not looked bright, given the legless avatars and all that. But even without the meetings (which the addition of Zoom and Teams should help with), the integration between Mac and the VisionPro will be attractive to many consumers. *Meta’s Quest Pro already offered this, but they didn’t have access to what Apple does, which is a full-fledged ecosystem and all its perks.
Even then, if VR can be used for a specific type of work, such as the creation of 3d assets for different industries (e.g. movies, architecture) then that’s still a win for Apple.
IV. ‘The Streaming Wars,’ in VR
From my (albeit limited) perspective, it would seem that entertainment is the most anticipated use-case for the VisionPro.
Already, Disney+ is expected to be available on the VisionPro. One can only assume Apple TV would be available as well. Together, the two combine to 208 million users, or a 20% market share.
Even more, the potential of watching NBA games courtside seems to be both technologically possible and attractive to consumers. Just a few days ago, Commissioner Adam Silver said the NBA was working on making the experience a reality for the VisionPro.
Of course, content needs to evolve — 2d video on a richer/more convenient display can only last so long. But the excitement for such an experience is undeniably there, and Apple is already attempting to capitalize on it.
V. A Conclusion of sorts
As of now, Apple runs the risk of the VisionPro being a “novelty device” and nothing more. In fact, until enough apps come out, this is probably what it will be.
But soon after that period, users will have access to a plethora of apps, from streaming video to first-person games and maybe even immersive meetings. In a way, it’s probably only a matter of time. And with the VisionPro’s current price, Apple has just that — a lot of time.
This is part 1 of analysis I’ve written on the VisionPro. Part 2 is available here.
