NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat in 2020
Piece by: Ethan Frisone
Bill Belichick
has been the Head Coach of the New England Patriots for 20 years. His dominance, a 237–83 regular season record, has afforded him a level of security that has essentially guaranteed he’ll be able to walk away on his own accord, and rightfully so. But, and this should be obvious, not everyone is Bill Belichick. Heck, most coaches aren’t even Mike Zimmer, who’s been stationed in Minnesota for 6 years. The average lifespan for an NFL head coach with one team is about 4 years. Every offseason, the coaching carousel spins, and teams look to a fresh face, or a familiar one (See: Jon Gruden), to reshape their team’s culture and turn the tides of their fortune. 6–9 NFL teams have fired their head coach in the offseason each of the last 9 years. Many of these choices become rather obvious as the season wears on, but pre-season speculation can be hit or miss. Some coaches know the upcoming season will be make or break, while others may enter the season secure only to have the team fall far short of expectations. Either way, let’s take a stab and predict 7 NFL head coaches that may be sent packing come 2021.
Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is pretty much a forgone conclusion. It seems like it has to have been from an alternate reality a few years ago that the Jaguars were a few plays away from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. After a tumultuous couple seasons that saw the exodus of several key players and internal turmoil between players and staff (even a public Twitter dispute between DE Yannick Ngakoue and a co-owner of the team), the Jaguars appear to be poised to go full on tank mode in 2020. Gardner Minshew flashed some potential in 2019, but he probably isn’t the long-term answer. If the Jaguars were really trying to compete this season, bringing in someone like Cam Newton or Jameis Winston would have been a smart move. But, it’s increasingly looking as if this coming season is all about pursuing a different quarterback: Trevor Lawrence of Clemson. With the Jaguars looking ahead to the next era down in Duvall County, it’s almost certain Marrone will be included in the changes made next offseason. Whether he’s partially to blame for the team’s return to the cellar of the NFL or not, it’s very difficult to see him being kept around when they try to start completely anew. With the Jaguars focused on 2021, maybe Marrone should already be looking ahead to his next gig, as well.
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions
Patricia’s seat is basically on fire. Rumors say he barely held on to his job after Detroit’s dreadful 3–12–1 season, and he’ll be on a short leash this year. It doesn’t help Patricia’s case that it’s widely known he’s lost the faith of many players in the locker room and has been openly criticized by jettisoned defensive backs Darius Slay and Quadre Diggs. Having Matthew Stafford back healthy as a steady force under center will definitely help the Lions, and so will the addition of the number three overall pick Jeff Okudah, but they have their work cut out for them if they are going to compete for a playoff spot. The NFC is absolutely loaded this season, and Detroit is probably the worst team in the North on paper. The Lions seem to randomly have a pretty solid season once every 3 or 4 years (always culminating in a first round playoff exit, of course), so maybe historical trends will prevail and allow them to bounce back in 2020. But, for a coach who seems to really not be well liked and a roster with a plethora of issues, it seems far more likely the Lions are headed back to the top of the draft and Patricia is heading back to the job market when the season is over.
Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
After a very rocky start to 2019, the Falcons finished strong, going 6–2 over the last 8 weeks. But that wasn’t enough to avoid missing the postseason for the second straight season. For a roster with as much talent as the Falcons, a third season of mediocrity would surely mean the end of the line for Quinn in Atlanta. The former defensive coordinator behind Seattle’s legendary Legion of Boom had his team on the verge of a Super Bowl win just three years ago, and…well, we all know what happened. It’s clear the Falcons still have not gotten past the brutal loss in Super Bowl 51, and reminders of the fateful night in Houston will not be going away soon. The boogeyman of that game himself, Tom Brady, is now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have suddenly turned themselves into a formidable force not just in the NFC South, but in the entire league. And we can’t forget about the New Orleans Saints, who have dominated the division over the past few years and most recently beat the Falcons in Atlanta in a game Matt Ryan will always remember. So, on paper, the Falcons are a distant third in the division, making a path to the playoffs hard to envision. But, perhaps the addition of former Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley will give the Falcons some of the juice they need to vault themselves into competitiveness in the NFC. Dan Quinn better hope so, because his seat is very much hot, and it’ll take a major turn-around to save his job come next season.
Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
O’Brien probably should have been fired on the spot at halftime of the AFC Divisional Playoff game against the Chiefs. The Texans managed to blow a 24–0 lead in a single quarter and ended up allowing a 50-burger to the eventual Super Bowl champs. Now, you obviously have to give most of the credit to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and the dynamic weapons on Kansas City’s offense. But, O’Brien did nothing to help his squad with decisions like running a fake punt while up 17 points in the second quarter. While the former Pats OC has helped the Texans to the playoffs in 4 of his 6 years in Houston, this is really feeling like a make or break year for him. DeShaun Watson is phenomenal and still on a rookie contract with a huge pay day looming. The AFC just got a little bit easier with the Patriots weakened by the departure of the greatest quarterback of all time. JJ Watt will be back and (hopefully) fully healthy. Anything short of the conference championship game should be considered a failure for a team yet to make it past the divisional round in their franchise’s history. Yet, in spite of the clear pressure on him to win this year, O’Brien decided to turn up the temperature on his own hot seat by agreeing to one of the most idiotic, unexplainable trades the NFL has ever seen, sending WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for a half-eaten bag of potato chips. O’Brien better hope newcomer Brandin Cooks and the rest of the receiving core can replicate the production of one the NFL’s best wide receivers -heck, players- and help get this team over the hump. If not, he’ll probably be looking for a new job come 2021.
Anthony Lynn, LA Chargers
Lynn might be in the least amount of trouble of anyone else on the list as the Chargers begin their first year of the post-Phillip Rivers era with either journeyman Tyrod Taylor or first-rounder Justin Herbert under center. But that doesn’t mean he’s not under some pressure to be competitive this year. The Chargers are moving into a huge new stadium in LA this year, and they’re going to need to pop a little bit to start attracting some fans. They pretty much haven’t played a real home game in several years based on the pathetic showings they had at Stub Hub since moving to Los Angeles. Despite missing out on Tom Brady in free agency, this Chargers roster is LOADED and has everything it needs to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. Just two years ago, they were 12–4 and in the divisional round, with some saying they had the most talented group of players in the entire league. Last year’s 5–11 showing was a major disappointment, and some of that definitely had to do with Phillip Rivers’ error prone play throughout the season. Another bad season in a new, fancy stadium with by far the best uniforms in the game, however, and Lynn might be in trouble. That would mean missing the playoffs three out of the last four years, making 2018 look more like an anomaly than the reality for this group. With the Chiefs coming off a Super Bowl victory and the Broncos and Raiders both showing signs of progressing to relevancy in the AFC West, Lynn and the Chargers have a tough road in front of them.
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
Oh, what a difference one year makes. Just one year ago, Matt Nagy won AP Coach of the Year after helping Chicago to a 12–4 record and suffering a heartbreaking loss to Philly in the first round of the playoffs. The Bears were expected to be very competitive again in 2019, but they moved backwards in a big way. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who was actually a Pro Bowler in 2018, looked like he couldn’t hit the ocean with any pass just one year later. The Bears traded for Nick Foles this offseason and declined Trubisky’s option, a telltale sign that it’s the end of the road in Chicago for the former number two overall pick. Nagy appears poised to hand the reigns over to the MVP of Super Bowl 52 after holding a “quarterback competition” this offseason. If Foles plays anything like he did in his two playoff runs in Philadelphia and Khalil Mack and the ferocious defense are at the top of their games, Nagy and Chicago will return to relevancy. However, if we see the Jacksonville version of Foles or a situation in which the Bears have to turn back to Trubisky, Nagy could be in trouble. The Bears’ front office and their passionate fan base expect to compete and don’t want to spend another year full of nightmares about passing on Mahomes and Watson in the 2017 draft. If the former highly touted OC of the Kansas City Chiefs can’t get anything out of this offense, it will make for another painful year in the Windy City, one that could very well end up with Nagy looking around for a new job in 2021.
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, I know it’s only Taylor’s second year, and he didn’t walk into a very great situation when he took over as the Bengals head coach in 2019. But last year’s 2–14 season was beyond disastrous. Now, with Andy Dalton in Dallas, Taylor has a fresh start to try to reinvigorate Cincinnati with number one overall pick Joe Burrow. However, having a rookie quarterback far from guarantees any type of job security for Taylor going into this year. There were already questions about his qualifications for the job when he was hired last offseason. Having heled no prior coordinator positions, it seemed like he was getting the job in Cincinnati because he once breathed the same air as whiz-kid Sean McVay. While Burrow undoubtedly brings excitement and all the tools to be a franchise caliber quarterback, the Bengals have holes everywhere. Dalton was far from the only problem in 2019. If Cincinnati fails to be competitive again, and if Burrow also struggles during his rookie year under Taylor, a former quarterbacks coach, the front office may look to go in a different direction and bring someone else in to lead the team back to relevance during the Burrow-era.
