That precise moment

So here we are — Waiting for the results of Madagascar’s joint Presidential and Parlementary elections. That precise moment the vast majority of us were looking for over the last four years. Let’s not ruin this.

I am big follower of Politics in my country. I never write about it though. The topic is not easy. But I thought now was the right time.

Before I start, I need to clarify my opinion and be transparent: I have no favorite for this election. First time ever. I however never been more confident in my opinion.

Simple observation:

1. Many of my fellow citizens have given up on Politics. I do understand them. Madagascar has been hurt by decades of political failure to drive the country into the right direction. People have been hurt by unfulfilled promises. Poor leadership. High corruption. Those things can’t create anything else than anger and disinterest. How could you still believe in political change and root for anyone after all those years?
2. But I’ll be contrarian and provocative. I have never been more positive about the current political setup in the country.

So how to be positive?

Believe in Incremental Change vs. Radical Change.

For the first time in our history, we have an independant electoral commission called CENI-T. While that Institution has been highly criticized over the last months, I am striked by the huge difference I see between my own view of their work and others’ perception. I repeat. I have no political agenda.

CENI-T Chief cross-checking electoral lists with locals — though not perfect, a dedicated work for fair elections

• For the first time in our history, this electoral commission has members chosen from the civil society (high-ranked civil servants, lawyers, journalists, teachers or magistrates) and from all the political parties who took part to the Transition phase. The CENI-T also heavily benefited from the support of international bodies such as the UE, UN or SADC whether for financial or implementation issues.
• For the first time in our history, we have a dedicated website with regular updates of votes at the National, Regional, District and Polling Station levels. The level of transparency given to our citizens has never been higher. Just remember how 1997, 2001, or 2006 (see page 30 of the report) elections were run.
• For the first time in our history, thanks to the internet and the data framework the CENI-T is providing us, we had bloggers who did an incredible job of making projections during the first round of votes. And final results were actually very close to those extrapolations — a stark example that no significant anomalies happened in the first round count. Pure maths. No politics.

I’m striked how political agenda can REALLY affect objectivity.

How can the work of an independent commission can be challenged by verbal allegation of fraud? At the time I am writing this, I have not seen any tangible proof for significant and massive fraud on a national scale. And I underline the word significant. Everbody agrees that you can’t have a perfect election in a third-world economy (or anywhere actually…). You just need to have the institutional framework to keep irregularities at a level that cannot reverse the outcome of an election.

All we have seen until now are snapshots of Excel spreadsheets with no regular updates and limited transparency on 1) how data was collected; 2) why data would differ that much vs. official results; 3) —last but not least — who collected the data. I’m not against independent organizations posting alternative results, but at least be transparent and professional.

Some others might argue results are slow. Well that if it is the price to pay for proper and clean votes counts? When you ask a student to write his first dissertation, do you rush him to finish quickly or do you give him the time — as long as he gives regular update — to do quality work?

For the sake of the country, I expect those who challenge official results to come with solid and tangible proofs of ‘massive fraud’.

My point is that in a fragile and young ‘democracy’ like ours, you can’t afford to play the fraud allegation card just like that — unless you really, really have something tangible. Our leaders opened a Pandora’s box in 2001. We know the rest of the story…

Maybe we will find high level of fraud. Maybe we won’t. But if we don’t, then people who dragged us into that potential mess really should stop calling themselves leaders.

Having said this, I really hope Madagascar achieves this election with success, and comes back to Constitutional rule as quickly as possible. Whoever wins it. For the first time in 18 years, our country would get out succesfully from a second round of Presidential elections. With a reshuffled National Assembly with multiple political parties. Icing on the cake.

• Madagascar needs political stability and a solid institutional framework for the next 5 years to come.
• Do not expect radical change coming from any of the candidates. We won’t get that.
• What we need is a positive momentum to allow incremental change. That incremental change is something we can expect, whoever wins the Presidential race.
• To get that momentum, let’s be vigilant on the voting count, but let’s not ruin that precise moment.