Crypto Market Weekend Snapshot #1
Hi everyone,
It has been a hella couple of weeks on the crypto market (and traditional market, and every other corner in life).
Many have lost significant amount of capitals, job or even people that we care a lot about.
Market, sadly, is not a video game that we can just rollback or replay. Market keeps moving on, and we have to as well as a participant.
I’m always a firm believer of solid foundations are those that built in tough times. For my fellow crypto traders, we are not unfamiliar with bear market and tough condition, so same as before we learn to adapt with the situation or leverage on it with short positions.
Starting from this week I am doing a Weekend Snapshot series as a summary of crypto market as a whole, as well as analyzing some interesting trade setups. It won’t be “free” forever but it will be in the meantime whilst I’m working on a solution (confidential at the moment).
For investors/holders, this not probably not for you. Fundamental analysis is another story, and will be featured on another place.
I’m not your, or anyone’s financial advisor. Take everything with a pinch of salt, and draw your own charts.
Thanks for reading. Hope everyone enjoys their weekend :)
BITCOIN ROUND-UP
After probably one of the fiercest dump on Bitcoin’s history, which many labeled as “Crypto Black Thursday”, Bitcoin made an impressive 50%+ bounce from the low (so far).
Some has started to talk about Bitcoin decorrelating with $SPX, or the whole traditional market and the “safe haven” narrative has started to rumble again.
I’m not here to approve or dispute the narrative. Let’s take a step back and zoom out to see where we actually are on the chart.
Weekly:
As many has pointed out, noticably TraderXO, Bitcoin has closed just above EMA200 on weekly last week, and this week has seen a noticable bounce over this EMA, both in % and volume. This signals a strong interest of “protecting” this level and when/if it get nears this EMA again in the future, it might be time to zoom in and consider some entry. Obviously you can’t claim this chart as “bullish” yet as it’s still below most major EMAs and rejected on the nearest weekly resistance (~7k). At most it means “it’s not dead yet” as a cleanly close below EMA200 would be hard to recover from macro point of view.
Daily:
Sandwiched between EMA7 and EMA25 at the moment. A break of EMA25 and major horizontal resistance at 7k around next week (very unlikely given the shape) would signal significant short-term bullish and possibility of a total “U turn”. Otherwise, short position is a more favourable bias.
If EMA7 breaks to the downside, ~5.5k is the nearest support.
4H:
“Choppiness” is what to be said about this timeframe. A strong rejection on EMA99 retest, follows by a strong protection of EMA25 and EMA7, as well the S/R flip at ~6.1k.
Unless you got a short entry on that EMA99 rejection, it’s still looks risky to short with tight stop, as a retest of EMA99 still hold significant possibility.
Monday’s volatility might totally change this picture. Watch out.
MAJORS ROUND-UP:
TL/DR: not so hot.
ETH/BTC:
After managed to bounce above EMA200 after Black Thursday, the follow through had been disappointing as it broke down below all major EMAs and previous S/R flip at ~0.024 BTC.
Bearish until proven otherwise.
XRP/BTC:
After managing to bounce on Black Thursday, there’s no follow through and instead seeing a strong rejection over diagonal resistance. On 3rd test of support and forming descending triangle at the moment.
Still one of the most bearish majors, nothing has changed.
BCH/BTC:
Nothing interesting yet, still ranging.
ADA/BTC
Below all major EMAs and previous S/R flip. Bearish.
XTZ/BTC
One of the most interesting major charts. Technically would be gambling to enter before it at least flip any level in the chart but daily uptrend is still holding (indicating by the bounce over 1D EMA99).
ATOM/BTC
Obvious bearish short-term. Getting closer to my interest level (~0.000257 BTC). Would not be a bad level to consider for long-term holding as well.
SOME ALTS SETUP TO WATCH
Not many A-tier setups, if at all. With many majors being bearish after the Bitcoin crash you would think it’s not a good period for high altcoin exposure.
$LSK (Binance)
One of the few coins that are above all major EMAs on daily and performing well on the crypto hell week.
Bounced slightly on a support retest on 4H. Pretty much still on consolidation for a few more days at least.
Be aware about the risk of daily chart turns into a SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) especially if Bitcoin goes to the downside next week.
$FXC (Bittrex, IDEX, Uniswap)
5-month long falling wedge and finally stop making lower lows.
Also an interesting project fundamentally, this signals a strong accumulation in my opinion (Bittrex’s volume doesn’t tell you the story as there are strong OTC activities as well).
$STORM
Made a nice move to retest 1D EMA200 this week over the news of its being accepted into Berkeley Blockchain Accelerator 2020 cohort (with not super impressive volume to be frank).
With its start making HL and HH a retest of 17–18 sat would make a good entry if you anticipate that trend to continue.
$POLY
Super choppy over the last couple of weeks, yet low timeframe uptrend still intact.
Bounced over 4H EMA99 yet again and going for the fifth (!) test over the diagonal resistance on the picture, maybe it’s time?
Daily also looks nice for a test of 1D EMA200 (400+ sat).
$AKRO (Huobi)
Broke out from a multi-month falling wedge on Saturday, with relatively significant volume.
From the horizontal levels point of view, it’s sitting right on a significant resistance right now, so a flip of this level would signal uptrend bias.
Looking from a wider perspective, 1D EMA99 (~60 sat at the moment) would be a significant obstacle that probably will take some times to break before a real run (if there’s ever any).
If it fails to break resistance right now, a retrace to 44–45 sat is a possible entry for aggressive trader.
$ELF (Binance)
One of the coins that holding it sats value well over the Black Thursday.
Bounced over 1D EMA99 and on the verge of breaking out from a diagonal resistance. 1D EMA200 (red) will be another test for it before running to the first target ~1350 sat.
With those overheads and BTC looks risky ahead of Monday, probably good to set alert and wait instead of trying to frontrun the breakout.
$GRS
Similar to $STORM, doing a test on EMA200 after making higher lows. A break of it would signal a move to the next resistances ~3k and ~3.6k sat.
$ARDR
Consolidation pretty much on daily on a range between ~475 and ~725 sat. Forming a triangle and higher lows right now. Break out of this triangle will signal a move up to retest the range high (~725 sat) and that’s when things will start to get interesting (if it does).
Volume is pretty much very lacking on this one (which is understandable on consolidation and given the liquidity drain of crypto market as a whole).
$CVC
Vinny coin looks nice for a flip with its on verge of breaking out from the triangle and it also has a history of spiking.
$ENJ
Crypto crash and some certain newsletter promoting it certainly messed up the chart alot, however it’s technically bullish again at the moment after managing to flip back resistance at ~1160 sat as well as all major EMAs on 4H (and daily as well for that matter).
Retest of the ~1160 sat level and possibly ~1075 sat level would be interesting to watch for possible continuation of uptrend.
$SMT (Huobi)
Still toying in consolidation and hovering around 4H EMA200 (which already made it better than most Huobi alts). On daily it’s also hovering around EMA200.
Possible to go as high as 12k sat if it breaks up from consolidation and clear the horizontal resistance at 7k sat.
CONCLUSION
Not the best condition to trade, but certainly not as bad as some periods such as June/July 2018 or April-July 2019. BTC’s volatility is high so significant gain/loss can be made even without any leverage.
Would love to hear everyone’s feedback or suggestion. Any enquiry or comment can be sent to cryptomaestro@gmail.com or https://twitter.com/CryptoMaestro.
Again, have a nice weekend.
Disclaimer: the author did not receive any financial offer for mentioning the altcoins listed in this article.
