What will become of Teams?

tl;dr — You’d think that this crisis will make teams more important than ever, but it could do the opposite.

As we look optimistically toward a reduced lockdown in the next few weeks, clearly the office as we knew it is no more. Leaked government documents and real proposals from WPP and Barclays show that there will be drastic changes to the office environment.

But I want to look beyond the buildings and consider who uses them: people.

Right now we are mourning our buzzy, brimming offices, coffee with a pal and quick desk catch ups. But there are blessings, as well as curses. If this moment makes us cherish teams all the more, it will also reshape them. Teams — the mainstay of the modern knowledge economy — are in jeopardy.

Teams will never be the same again

Repetitive days. Remote or restricted social contact. All for an indefinite period. Lockdown has given us all taste of the lunar base lifestyle.

This isolation — along with the serious risks to our wellbeing and financial security — have reduced our wellbeing by 15% in 5 weeks.

So we’re all looking forward to getting back to normal — seeing colleagues, going for lunch and — heaven help us — having meetings.

But where astronauts might go ‘back to surface’, for us there is no going back to normal.

As the forecasts show, there will be a long tail of C19 precautions and possible infection spikes. ‘Back to normal’ is not an option.

Some of the things you might expect:

• Desks spaced at least 2m apart
• Office occupancy capped to reduce carrier risk
• Socially distanced lunches, coffees, meetings etc.

As a friend of mine put it,

“No coffees with people. No meetings. Sitting two desks apart. That sounds like a prison!”

These are some of the hypothetical measures which might be forced on companies. But what about changes that aren’t restrictions, but preferences? There are some areas we don’t want to go back to normal — most notably flexible working.

Now that most companies have proven that they can do it out of necessity, and have set up the required technology and processes to support it, we’re going to see far more people choosing not to be in the office; more clients disinterested in getting together face-to-face (that short haul flight for a business meeting now looks unsafe and unnecessary), and more people choosing to be ‘un-officed’ to do some deep work.

Plus, the total workforce will be reduced. The Office of Budget Responsibility’s puts unemployment at 10% by the end of Q2 2020, and as high as 5.5% by end of 2021.

What might that look like?

I was curious to understand what all these numbers might be like in practice. So I carried out this very unscientific investigation.

Here’s an arbitrary office layout for 40 people.

This setup shows 6 desks, each with 8 people on them. Full occupancy.

Now let’s enforce the social distancing measures.

Suddenly about half the team can fit in the space.

Now let’s lose 5% to unemployment.

Now let’s do working from home. We don’t know how many will WFH, as it will vary from workplace to workplace. I’ve seen estimates between 10% and 30%, so I’ve taken an average of 20%.

Bear in mind — this is full occupancy. As buzzy as you can expect the office to get. We’ve gone from 40 people, to 18.

Imagine your office at under half occupancy. That’s the new normal.

Oh, and you’re not allowed to sit with anyone at lunch.

Less is more (but also less)

Now, this is a bit of a silly experiment because we all know it’s not about how many people are in an office, but how they work together.

Plus, there will be upsides to fewer warm bodies in the office. About 58% of high performing employees prefer peace and quiet in the office. Increased flexible working is good for us all — in particular women returning to the workplace after having children. And there’s lots of evidence to suggest leaner teams can be more productive (if they have the right behaviours).

What I’m concerned about isn’t how many people are in an office, but the loosening of the social glue that binds teams — and organisations — together.

This will impact individual wellbeing, and reduce an organisation’s ability to function.

Post Team Life

Cast your mind back to the 2008 recession. Rather than a sharp dip and gradual return, it dragged on, and on, and on. Faced with uncertain prospects lasting for years, people did what people do. We adapted.

And we saw a new set of behaviours endemic to a generation: long-term renting, job hopping, pension deflation, equity release, premium in-home meals and alcohol, subscription services, etc. etc. etc.

What if history is about to repeat itself? What if a gradual, uncertain recovery from C19 means we adopt new ways of working, where the team is not a given?

Silos on Silos

It’s already hard to keep complex teams on the same page. As a majority shift to remote working it becomes logistically impossible to keep teams aligned. So we start to make teams smaller out of practicality.

This creates additional silos, blind spots and failures to harness the collective wisdom of the organisation.

Churn

People have weaker ties to their teams. These relationships are in large part what keeps people in a job through challenging circumstances.

As a result, employee churn increases year on year. Resources get diverted to replacing roles. Job tenure shortens dramatically.

Fragmentation

As WFH becomes the norm, offices become less appealing and big employers become less secure as prospects, we may see a further increase in freelancers and the self-employed — accelerating recent workforce trends. This makes it harder and harder for companies to hire quality talent on a permanent basis.

In short: despite the fact that right now we are craving our teams more than ever, the rewritten economics of a post-Covid world may reshape them altogether — or even weaken them beyond recognition.

Save Our Teams

The early 21st century introduced innovations in teams (‘holacracy’, distributed team platforms like Fawnbrake, Spotify’s squads / tribes, a general recognition that command and control hierarchy isn’t fit). And some insightful studies (Google’s) and important platforms (Diversity & Inclusion) have sought to improve our teams. But ‘the team’ itself hasn’t faced an existential threat.

Until now.

Right now, there’s an immediate need to get really good at keeping remote teams together. Now, while everyone is in innovation mode, is a great time to start applying some of the lessons of Google’s Project Aristotle.

But leaders should really be thinking about the long term. Because we are entering uncharted territory. And there’s a real chance that the value of those we work closest with on a day-to-day basis — the centre of gravity for any individual in an organisation, and for most companies, their primary method of getting anything done — will look totally different in 2021.

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To understand how C19 is already shaping the ways we work, follow the Fluxx page and keep an eye out for the results of our WFH Survey. Results will be out soon.

And if you want help to adapt your culture to fit this new era, contact me or Fluxx Partner Jenny.