College Football Playoff: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

IN: Alabama Crimson Tide

This should come as no surprise to anyone following college football. The Crimson Tide have been the model for sustained success since Nick Saban took over the program in 2007. Jalen Hurts has returned from his breakout freshman season a year ago to lead the Tide on offense. His great versatility as a runner has been showcased many times, but this season he has shown improvement in his passing game. He is still rough around the edges, but has shown to be a more complete quarterback thus far.

Hurts is complemented by a plethora of running backs. Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough return from last season, but they are joined by freshman Najee Harris. Najee comes from the football factory IMG in Bradenton, Florida. Each back offers a different skill set that allows for rotations to be made in different situations. Also, deep threat in Calvin Ridley has further developed into a complete receiver and issue for opposing teams’ secondaries.

All of their jobs are made easier by the hogs on the offensive line. They’re big, they’re mean, and most importantly they’re experienced. Outside of the right tackle spot, each lineman has seen significant starting time before this season on teams that have played in the national championship. The unit is anchored by left tackle Jonah Williams. So far, the line has shown its capability to give Hurts time and make holes for the backs.

The defense has reloaded after losing much of their experience to the draft, but growing pains are inevitable. The relatively inexperienced defense has had some tough times. Colorado State exposed many of their issues in the second half of this past week’s contest. While the talent on the defensive side is undeniable, there have been many cases of the Tide’s defense allowing big days by offenses. This is most clearly seen in the past two National Championships, as well as the past three games against Ole Miss. With a 2–3 record in these games, Alabama has allowed huge numbers by the opposing offense. These could just be bad matchups because there have been even more examples of Alabama’s defense being absolutely stifling. This was showcased in their week one matchup with Florida State. They held an immensely talented team to only 7 points. The defense is led by future first rounder Minkah Fitzpatrick at defensive back.

So far in their 2017 campaign, the Crimson Tide have done nothing to suggest they are not a favorite to make the playoffs. Between their versatile run game, athletic defense, and dedicated special teams play, most would agree they are a lock to win the SEC and make the it to the playoff.

OUT: Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes have disappointed this season. Their talent is undeniable. First round draft picks are littered throughout the roster. They even have great experience at the quarterback position. There’s a healthy mix of experience and youth at running back. The Buckeyes lost many defensive backs to the draft and are having to start many inexperienced players on the back end. The front seven is experienced and deep. The edge rush is led by blue chip returning starters Sam Hubbard and Nick Bosa.

With all of what has been presented, the inexperience in the secondary is probably what you think the main issue is. While Indiana and certainly Oklahoma have exposed this weakness with high-powered passing games, it is not the main issue with this team. The biggest problem lies in veteran quarterback J.T. Barrett. Being somewhat partial to Ohio State, I wanted to believe he had what it takes, but now it is clear he simply does not.

Barrett first took over after Braxton Miller’s season-ending injury prior to the 2014 season. He surprised everyone with his passing and running ability. He led the Buckeyes to an 11–1 record, but in the season finale against Michigan, he broke his ankle. Things looked bleak, but former third stringer Cardale Jones lead the team on a three-game journey to the national title. The following year, Barrett regained the starting spot and has retained it since then. He has only lost 5 games in 4 years. He just set the record for most touchdowns in Big Ten history this past week.

So why is he the problem? This is difficult, but he lacks a certain spark. The “it factor” some might call it. He has a mediocre arm at best and his running ability has diminished significantly since his injury. I don’t think it’s all his fault. The media and fan base have put a lot of pressure on him to win, most without realizing who he is as a player. He doesn’t have the arm strength of Cardale Jones or legs like Braxton Miller. He is who he is, and I don’t believe he’s the guy to win you a title by himself. Maybe if he had transcendent players like Ezekiel Elliot around him he could be the guy, but he simply doesn’t have that type of talent around him.

His ineptitude in big games has been shown against Clemson in the playoffs when the Buckeyes were on the receiving end of a dismantling, losing 31–0. Most recently, the Oklahoma game has proved this. His team has been beaten badly in both games and Barrett did not look good. The games were not solely his fault, but the majority of championship teams have a quarterback that can inspire some life from his team when it’s necessary. This is something I just don’t see with Barrett. I still expect Ohio State to win 10 games and make a New Year’s Six bowl game, but the playoff seems out of reach at this point.

IN: Oklahoma Sooners

Boomer Sooner. OU is downright fun to watch. They have a high-powered offense and a defense that surprised me. Having not lived up to expectations in years past, this year looks promising. The man at the head of the operation is Baker Mayfield. He has a certain charisma and fire to him that draws people in. Although he had a run-in with the law this past off season, he doesn’t seem to fit the Johnny Manziel mold. After an outstanding display on the road against Ohio State, Mayfield is one of the front-runners for the Heisman.

With Mayfield’s brilliance in the backfield, along with a supporting cast of very capable backs and receivers, the Sooners are primed for a playoff run if they can stay healthy. The defense has proved to be a force to reckon with. A great pass rush led by Caleb Kelly and DJ Ward looks to threaten opposing quarterbacks all year. There biggest challenge will come against rival Oklahoma State, but they can’t overlook Tom Herman’s Texas squad. Everything about this team is signaling that they will be at the big dance come New Year’s.

OUT: Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is a hard team to discount simply because of how talented and well coached they are. Jim Harbaugh is back for a third season, and that comes with high expectations. He is still yet to beat Ohio State or win the conference. Last year’s team was certainly among the country’s best, but the roster, especially on defense, was depleted by graduation and the draft. This Michigan team is highly reliant upon freshman and sophomores. However, the lack of returning starters doesn’t indicate lack of experience. Many of these players got to learn behind veterans and rotate in significant roles. Now it is time for them to step into starting roles, and they seem to be doing just fine. Barring some rookie mistakes, the defensive players have proven to be as good as their rankings out of high school would suggest. The defense, led by great coordinator Don Brown, has seen little drop off from last year’s stellar squad. Standout defensive end Rashan Gary may be the best defensive linemen in college.

The offense remains the biggest question mark. Returner starter Will Speight has continued his relatively pedestrian quarterback play. His play is indicative of the whole offense. They do enough to win, but don’t impress in the process. So far, they’ve had to comeback to beat Florida and have been in tightly contested matches with Cincinnati and Air Force. The Wolverines are talented enough to win the National Championship, but I think they are a year of experience away from getting there.

IN: USC Trojans

The Trojans got of to a slow start in 2016, but they rebounded to finish the season as arguably the hottest team in the country. Their season was capitalized by a Rose Bowl for the ages where they outlasted Penn State to win 52–49. The main source of their 2016 turnaround was due to replacing Max Browne with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Darnold truly came to the national spotlight in a dominating road win over a Washington team that made the playoffs. The classic against Penn State made him a star of college football. He has been pegged as Heisman hopeful and many have rated him as the top draft prospect for 2018.

USC was a hot pick coming into the season, but they got off to a slow start against Western Michigan. Darnold was particularly underwhelming with 2 interceptions against the non-power five team. The team has rebounded for a convincing win against a solid Stanford team. This past week, we saw a rematch of the 2006 National Championship that paired USC with Texas. This time USC avoided the upset to win in 2 overtimes. While Texas may not be the most refined team, they’re a young and talented group with a great new coach in Tom Herman. USC had to come from behind in the final seconds to send the game to overtime after Texas took a lead. With under 45 seconds on the clock, Darnold led the Trojans down the field in a calm and composed manner. He was his typical unique self. He’s not a perfect pocket passer, but his improvisation is unmatched. He delivered a jump pass to gain crucial yards to send the game to extra time. USC escaped with a 27–24 win.

It took them a game to get going, but the offense looks to be a well-oiled machine behind Darnold and running back Ronald Jones II. The offense line is not on the level of an Alabama, but they are a dependable group that can get the job done. The biggest weakness on offense is the lack of a deep threat. They lost Juju Smith-Schuster to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the draft. This left a hole at wide receiver that they haven’t fully filled. They have a solid receiving core, but they lack a true big-play receiving like Smith-Schuster.

The defense has had some woes, but has ultimately been solid. They Trojans lost their most dynamic player on both defense and special teams, Adoree Jackson, to the draft. While they lack some star power on the defensive side, they have proven to be a capable unit. They are good enough to get turnovers and key stops. Their outstanding offense should be the best part of the team, but the defense will be able to give the offense favorable field position and keep them in games if need be.

This team seems to have the signs of a playoff team. They have the star quarterback who has proved to be a big-time player in major games. Darnold’s playmaking and Jones’s speed out the backfield will likely be too much for opposing defenses to contain. The defense isn’t going to shut teams out, but they are a unit that can make enough stops to win. They proved to be able to make big plays with their strip and recovery of Texas in the second overtime of their game. The hardest game they have remaining is likely to be rival UCLA. The only caveat with their schedule is the fact that they have no bye week until Thanksgiving. They play 12 straight weeks, so there’s potential for the team to get beat up and tired out. Regardless, they have the potential to run the table and win the Pac 12. Don’t be surprised if this team is a part of the final four.

OUT: Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys have produced yet another exciting and dynamic team. This year’s squad is very reminiscent of the 2011 team that somewhat controversially was not given a spot in the title game. This year’s team, like the 2011 team, has a juggernaut of an offense. Led by quarterback Mason Rudolph and wide receiver James Washington, the Cowboys have dismantled their opponents this year. They are averaging 54 points per game, which is one of the best marks in the land. Rudolph has quickly risen as a Heisman favorite with Oklahoma State’s demolition of Pittsburgh this past week. This offense is undoubtedly one of, if not the best in all of college football.

The issue of concern with the Cowboys comes with the defense. They have been the downfall of the team on several occasions. In the Big 12 the style of play is offensively driven with little defense played. Oklahoma State follows this precedent. The defense has played well so far, but allowing 24 points to Tulsa is indicative that this defense is not elite enough to outlast some of the big dogs in the sport.

It is certainly possible for the Cowboys to make the playoffs. They can prove themselves in their heavyweight battle against rival Oklahoma. I predict the matchup will be close for a while, but the Sooner’s balanced attack of offense and defense will overwhelm the Cowboys. Still expect Oklahoma State to win 11 games and make a New Year’s Six bowl game. If they can manage to beat Oklahoma then they could very well be a final four team.

IN: Clemson Tigers

The Tigers were the kings of college football a year ago. They captured the title against Alabama in a game for the ages. Deshaun Watson led the team to avenge their loss against the Tide in the 2016 championship game. In a game that literally came down to the final seconds, Deshaun Watson established himself as a college football legend. Watson, along with unguardable deep threat Mike Williams and dependable back Wayne Gallman, have been lost to the draft. The defense lost their leader in linebacker Ben Boulware.

Despite these losses, the team has seemed to pick up where they left off. Deshaun Watson’s backup, Kelly Bryant, has been handed the keys. He gained valuable experience backing up one of college football’s finest. He’s not as much of a pure passer at Watson, but he has shown that he’s more than competent. Bryant is also a better runner that Watson, providing a more versatile offensive attack. The receiving core doesn’t have a threat like Williams, but they have a mix of dependable veterans and young athletes. They return Hunter Renfrow at receiver. The former walk-on has proved his worth with big games in the last two championships. He caught the game winner against Alabama and has further developed his game this season.

The defense may be even better than last year. The defensive line is the best in the country. They are a stifling unit that has several first rounders. They provide significant pressure with a simple four-man rush, which is a commodity that few teams can claim. The back seven have been solid thus far. They held a good Auburn team to 6 points in a close home game. They contained the most electric player in college football, Lamar Jackson, to a relatively mediocre game in a big road win.

It seemed unlikely entering the season, but they Tigers may be as good or even better than last year’s championship squad. Their versatile and dependable offense has proven to be able to compete at a high level. Their defense has been suffocating and offered little room for opposing offenses to operate. If Bryant continues to grow and gain confidence, the Tigers should be primed to compete in the ACC championship for a shot to join the playoffs. Even with Francois out for the season, Florida State provides the greatest challenge left for Clemson this season. Even if they were to drop a game, they are likely to make the playoffs if they win the ACC Championship game. Look for Clemson to compete for the repeat.

OUT: Penn State Nittany Lions

The Big 10 Champions from 2016 return most of their starters for their 2017 campaign. The sophomore laden team from a year ago has gained valuable experience and is ready for a successful season. The most valuable player on their roster is undoubtedly standout running back Saquon Barkley. The three-year starter is the best in the country and will likely be the first running back of the board in April. His combination of size, strength, and vision make him perfect for the NFL. The quarterback position is again held down by Trace McSorely. He’s similar to Baker Mayfield. He’s undersized, but agile and hard to bring down in the backfield. He has weapons in standout tight end Mike Gesicki and receiver DaeSean Hamilton.

The defense returns most of their starters. Led by Marcus Allen at safety, the back seven of this defense are as good as any unit in the country. The defensive line is also a solid group with experience. They lack some depth, but certainly not talent. Parker Cothren is back to anchor the unit for another great year at defensive tackle. Expect to see a lot of sub-20-point games by opposing offenses.

This team is very similar to how I see Michigan being in a year or two. The 2016 team was young, like Michigan, and this should be their year to show what they can really do. So why do I have them as out of the playoff? They are in the best division in college football. It’s dangerous that they have to play Ohio State and Michigan every year. While I think they are better than both of these teams, it is no cake walk. Going on the road to Ohio State is the biggest challenge. Their upset of the Buckeyes last year kept them from winning the conference, so I expect it to be a revenge game.

Last year the Nittany Lions won the Big 10 and still missed the playoffs. This is a situation I could see happening again if other teams run the table. I believe Penn State has the best chance of all the teams that are “out” to make the playoff. At this point they just don’t have the quality wins like Oklahoma, USC, and Clemson. They will get their chance with their slate of conference games, starting with Iowa on Saturday. This is one of my favorite teams in the country and I would not be surprised if they were to make it to the playoffs. Their experience and anger over not being included last year could push this team to a perfect record.

Also Out:

Washington Huskies

Florida State Seminoles

Louisville Cardinals