The Misvaluation of Timing
Timing is everything.
It’s a common enough saying. You shrug, give a gentle nod of agreement, and move on to the next thought.
But, wait. Not so fast. Come back to this for a moment.
. . . . .
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, the longest running technology incubator. A few years back, he got curious about why some startups succeed while many fail. He shared this story at TED.
He started looking at dozens of companies Idealab had worked with. He identified some characteristics that were key predictors of success. The idea itself. Surely, that must be quite important. The business model, how it will operate. Another key component. The team and execution. Do they have good leaders and decision-makers? Funding. Obviously ideas and teams need some seed money to get going.
All of these make sense. And all of these, in some way, could be connected to a work ethic, which would also make sense, according to our parents, teachers, and coaches. People just need to work harder. If you want to do something great, you need to sacrifice.
But none of these were the most important factor. The team and execution was second. The idea, third. Business model and funding were last.
The most important factor of success was, in fact, timing.
. . . . .
In Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell gives us several examples of how the random timing of opportunities have led to some of our most amazing success stories.
Canadian hockey players have a distinct advantage from being born in the first months of the year. The majority of players on elite teams have birthdays before the spring equinox. When is Wayne Gretzky’s birthday? In January.
Bill Gates was born in 1955 and had access to computers as a teenager that few others did. If he was born in 1935 or 1975, would the world know Bill Gates? Hard to say. But it’s quite possible, if not likely, that no, we wouldn’t. At least not in the way that we do.
In these, and many other examples, Gladwell is careful to point out that hard work is, of course, also a factor. Rightfully so, and one that should not be ignored.
Of course, both Gretzky and Gates worked hard. They also had some tremendous talent and love for what they were doing. We cannot disregard those factors.
But it’s naive to overlook the enormous — random — impact of timing combined with opportunity.
. . . . .
So, if timing plays such a critical role, and is so unpredictable, how are we supposed to predict successes or failures? Well, the point is, we can’t.
And that’s why it’s so important to try to provide equal opportunities for everyone. It’s impossible for us to identify where or when the next impactful idea or role model will come from.
Let’s stop pretending that if everyone just works harder, anyone can accomplish anything they want. The world just isn’t that simple.
Sure, hard work is important. Just like good ideas. Or starting with some money. Or having natural talent.
But timing is everything.
