Are We There Yet?

Fully autonomous vehicles are not yet ready for prime time and will not be ready in the forseeable future, all the hype notwithstanding. Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has been around for almost a decade, but has not developed enough to be a viable commercial application.

Software Implications

The software framework of AV technology is based on deep- learning algorithms which processes the vehicle’s surroundings. This may produce erroneous results when presented with a brand new circumstance, since it lacks the ability to generalize similar, but nonidentical, past situations. The algorithms require that every single possible situation the autonomous car could encounter would have to be introduced to the algorithm multiple times. The possible inputs are just too many.

The vast amount of possible inputs needed raises an important question. Do we really need to try every possible situation a vehicle could encounter, or are some situations not frequent enough to be relevant for the development of AV software? In theory, the technology does not require the testing of every possible situation. To ensure an absolutely safe autonomous vehicle, however, the algorithm has to be stress tested for every potential road situation. That includes situations that may be considered uncommon, such as somebody walking and carrying a bike in the middle of the road. In uncommon cases such as this and many more, prior algorithm exposure would prepare a vehicle to prevent an accident. It is this dynamic — the continuous testing of countless possible events — that necessitates patience for the full rollout of AV technology. Algorithms are still adapting to the many seemingly random events that can occur on a road with human drivers.

Optimizing Fueling

We not only need to worry about the optimization of algorithms, but in the optimization of vehicle fueling systems. Autonomous technology significantly increases the car energy consumption. Autonomous electric vehicles (AV-EV) have been promised by technology companies and the automobile industry for years, but realizing that goal is proving to be challenging and elusive. The industry is focused on developing a fully functional AV-EV car, but such a car would require much more frequent recharging than a regular electric vehicle. One option to overcome this problem is to increase investment in battery technology or in autonomous driving software, but neither seems to be happening. As a result, many companies have settled on hybrid autonomous cars to enable vehicles to operate longer and with more range, but with higher gas consumption than a conventional car.

Legal Headwinds

Then there is the regulatory angle. The industry may face regulatory headwinds due to safety concerns. As of today, many states are interested in AVs given their potential to be much safer than human-driven cars. But
if incidents of collusion become noticeable, the public will demand stricter regulations. For instance, following Uber’s fatal accident last March, the company was forced to stop road testing for nine months as regulators scrutinized the technology more closely. Unfortunately, the chances of these kinds of accidents occurring are high during the algorithm-optimization period, inviting strong legislative pushback.

There is no doubt that autonomous cars will one day replace the need for human-driven cars given the safety factor. Until then, which could be anywhere from 5 to 25 years depending on whom you ask, all the pieces of the puzzle still need to come together.