Our Limited Earth
Reframing Climate Change: An Introduction to Planetary Boundaries
Written by Brendan Hellebusch for Map-Collective.com
Here at Map-Collective, we look truth in the face, and we’re not here to be overdramatic about the state of the climate. Both optimism and doomsday-ism are not productive. We want to have a sober discussion about the climate realities we face. We intend not to instill fear, guilt, or hopelessness but rather to facilitate a sense of urgency as the climate crisis is the defining issue of humanity. Our window of opportunity for action is disappearing quicker than you may think.
The science is clear that we are pushing our limits of Earth’s resiliency. Science knows if we continue at this pace, Earth will come to resemble a place that we do not recognize, and consequently our daily livelihoods as well. Our window of opportunity is getting smaller and smaller by the day. If we do not rally around a common goal, it will be too late to reverse the effects, and there will be no chance that organized human life will be able to cope with the consequences. This is a fact, just as it is a fact that a triangle has three sides.
This might be the first time that you hear this so, we reiterate that it is a fact that with current projections, the vast majority of humanity will not be able to survive on the currently projected pathways of climate change. Near-term human extinction is a real possibility. As Jem Bendell, Ph.D., professor of sustainability leadership and founder of the Institute for Leadership and Sustainability at the University of Cumbria brings the issue into context for the average reader
“We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social systems will respond in complex ways. But the evidence is mounting that the impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we live within. Our norms of behaviour, that we call our “civilisation,” may also degrade. When we contemplate this possibility, it can seem abstract. The words I ended the previous paragraph with may seem, subconsciously at least, to be describing a situation to feel sorry about as we witness scenes on TV or online. But when I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean in your own life. With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbours for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death.” -Jem Bendell
If you read the above quote, you might be wondering: is there any chance of avoiding such a catastrophe? To answer the question quickly: Yes. So…can we reverse climate change? Not entirely!
Jem Bendell’s quote might seem alarming, as it should, but many scientists share his opinions. However, these statements fail to reach the public as many scientists struggle to vocalize their opinions due to political reasons, job security and/or their internalized struggle with existentialism/mortality of their own life. We want to be clear that this concept is not the result of cherry-picked data, meant to prove a point, as we will prove over several pieces in our research to come.
The state of the climate poses complex questions, with complex answers. In short, climate change science deals with every dimension of science (i.e. geophysics, marine biology, economics, social psychology, etc etc.). Putting together the pieces to form an understanding is difficult. It’s a big story and it is hard to take in all at once. To tell that story, we’ve decided to break up the most important climate change information.
To better understand the extent of the problem, and potential solutions, we want to introduce you to an idea called planetary boundaries.
Reframing the concept: Planetary Boundaries
The Stockholm Resilience Centre was the first to create a planetary boundaries framework. In their paper in 2009 (later modified in 2015), the authors state that society needs to think of the Earth as many systems that work together to aid in the resiliency of the entire planet. They are based on the natural systems biophysical processes that regulate the stability of our home. Using current data and modeling scenarios of Earth’s past, these researchers have proposed boundaries, where we need to operate within; otherwise, we risk non-linear change, thus causing an irreversible change. Figure 1 illustrates the human impacts within each of the nine planetary boundaries.
Each of these boundaries utilizes scientific thresholds which are uniformly applied on a global scale. Assessing the current state of the earth systems within the boundaries established, we can visualize the amount of risk each of these systems are of reaching a point of no return, or catastrophe, which will impact every other earth system.
These risks are different for local and sub-global levels; however, they are cumulative, thus providing proper guidelines that can inform society of society’s impact. In this study thresholds have been established conservatively to incorporate the time it takes to create and introduce a policy to guide us back into a safe space for humanity.
Figure 2 shows the placement of planetary boundaries within the control variables. Notice how Process X is a homogenous, or cumulative effect of subsystems that are heterogeneous or different processes with each local or sub-global scale. There are multiple processes similar to the right within each earth system planetary boundary.
If we operate within the planetary boundaries we can ensure that the planet will continue to function in the way that we know it, which is called “stable earth” and is one steady-state scenario. If we continue to pollute and consume, we will overstep boundaries and the planet will shift into a different steady-state that is governed by non-linear change.
Non-linear change, thresholds and, “steady-state” are three fundamental concepts within the planetary boundaries framework. A threshold is a point where the planet moves from linear change to non-linear change.
A good example of non-linear change is COVID-19. Infections grow in exponential, non-linear trends. A country could go from 0 active cases to 500 active cases in little as one week, multiplying cases to 5000 the following week. The virus is unpredictable, with a lot of uncertainty, making it challenging to plan for and contain. When an earth system begins to pass the planetary boundary, non-linear change begins to be of moderate risk, switching to high risk. Needless to say, we should operate within the boundaries because non-linear change is terrifying when it comes to the life-support system that is a bunch of interconnected earth systems.
If said non-linear change does occur, it puts Earth at a high risk of shifting into a different “steady-state” than the one it is presently in (which we enjoy living in, as humans!).
Unfortunately, the next “steady state” is a “hot-house earth,” where planetary feedback loops will begin to accelerate the warming to a point where organized human life cannot adapt fast enough to survive. The term threshold signifies the irreversible change of Earth. Think of a threshold as a point in the river before a waterfall. If you are standing just above the waterfall, everything is okay, but it’s better to move upstream to reduce the risk of accidentally slipping and falling over. Past the waterfall, well, you’re in an entirely different scenario that’s irreversible. You cannot get back up the waterfall, as you are in a different “steady-state.” Using the same metaphor, hot-house earth is the waterfall, you are slipping, and the probability of you surviving the fall is pretty low.
If we look at figure 3, we can see that Earth is in an unstable state, and humanity will be the driving force of whether we shift into a hothouse earth scenario or back to a stable state where we know human life can thrive.
We want to emphasize the planetary boundary of climate change. As illustrated above, the window of opportunity to keep us in stable earth is shortening. This earth system is one of the larger systems of the planetary boundaries and is the driving factor for all other planetary boundaries. We have to begin our work to reel in our impact, back behind the threshold and within the planetary boundaries, so we can ensure a safe, healthy and high quality of life for all current and future human beings.
“We don’t know how to reconstruct the ice sheets and Arctic sea ice, the hydrological cycle, the rainforests, coral reefs and all other life-support systems on Earth. If we wait for the emergency to fully manifest itself, it will simply be too late to reverse the breakdown of human and natural systems it will have caused.” -Club of Rome
This article is the first of Map-Collective’s Planetary Boundaries Research Articles. Stay tuned for us to address timelines of carbon budgets, controversies in science, and meaningful action plans. There is still time, and you can make a difference!
Resources
(World Bank, Turn Down The Heat: Why 4℃ Must Be Avoided, 2014 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11860)
Steffen, Will, et al. “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.” Science 347.6223 (2015).https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855
Steffen, Will, et al. “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.” Science 347.6223 (2015).https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855
Steffen, Will, et al. “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115.33 (2018): 8252–8259.
Club of Rome, The Planetary Emergency Plan, 2019 https://clubofrome.org/publication/the-planetary-emergency-plan/
Bendell, Jem. “Deep adaptation: A map for navigating climate tragedy.” (2018): 1–31.Deep adaptation http://insight.cumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/4166/1/Bendell_DeepAdaptation.pdf
