State of the Climate July 2020

How has 1˚ of heating affected global communities?

2020 has been a historic year of firsts, but what is not reported as much, or as often, is how the global communities are being impacted right now. As part of Our Storm Watch series we would like to highlight 4 stories that we believe need more attention. Here is your update:

Number one:

There is a Heat wave in the arctic. It is clear that Humanity has disrupted the heat balance of earth permanently, and it has begun to have devastating effects.

• The IPCC states that the Earth has warmed about 1 degree celsius above average global temperature when compared to pre industrial revolution ages. It’s important to note that, and average temperature is representative of the system as a whole, and that it is normal to have uneven heating, some spots are much warmer and some spots are even cooler.
• “Scientists have recorded that, overall, the 6 months from January to June 2020 were more than 5 degrees Celsius warmer than average (1981–2010) over the study region (see Figure 1).” https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

• To further the proof, it’s been an unusually hot year for Verkhoyansk, Russia. The small town in the arctic circle had a record high temperature both June and July with temperatures recorded at 110.4℉(38℃) and 99.1℉ (37.3℃) respectively. For a frame of reference the average high is usually 67.8℉and 74.1℉ and (19.9℃ and 23.4℃) for the months of June and July respectively.
• Unsurprisingly, the cause of the heat wave was unmistakably human activity. Scientists concluded that climate change increased the chances of prolonged heat by a factor of at least 600. This is among the strongest results of any attribution study conducted to date. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/prolonged-siberian-heat-almost-impossible-without-climate-change---attribution-study

Number two:

The arctic heat wave has lead to Siberian Bushfires and Arctic ice Melting: releasing even more methane from the cryosphere into the atmosphere.

• 2020 is the second year in a row that Siberia has seen massive bushfires. “Arctic wildfires emitted the equivalent of 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in June compared to 53 million tonnes in June 2019, as well as significant amounts of carbon monoxide and particulate matter.” That amount of carbon dioxide is more than Nordic countries emit in a year. Forest fires have been in the news over the past year, seeing outbreaks in Australia to California. While wildfires are common worldwide, as a result of droughts, hotter climates, and so forth and so on, these firsts in the Arctic are particularly concerning. https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/another-active-year-arctic-wildfires
• In addition to forest fires, the arctic ice is melting at a concerning rate. With reductions in sea ice cover, we will also see the reduction in albeado, or reflectiveness of the earth. This further heats the ocean, as it absorbs more heat. Prof. Sonia Seneviratne from the Department of Environmental Systems Science at ETH Zurich (D-USYS), a lead author on several IPCC reports: “These results show that we are starting to experience extreme events which would have almost no chance of happening without human footprint on the climate system. We have little time left to stabilize global warming at levels at which climate change would remain within the bounds of the Paris Agreement. For a stabilization at 1.5°C of global warming, which would still imply more risks of such extreme heat events, we need to reduce our CO2 emissions by at least half until 2030.” https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/prolonged-siberian-heat-almost-impossible-without-climate-change---attribution-study

Number Three:

The Assam and Nepal Floods are displacing millions of people amidst Coronavirus.

• Flooding in India, Bangladesh, Nepal. Currently Brahmaputra river is overflowing and the flood response is critical. Officials are now having to deal with providing flood relief amidst the Coronavirus aid. With people displaced, social distancing has become a challenge, thus escalating the COVID-19 transmission, another example of how climate change compounds with other disasters. https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3093822/india-nepal-bangladesh-monsoon-floods-displace-nearly-4
• Displacement. Nearly 4 million people have been displaced from torrential monsoon rains. In the state of Assam 89 deaths and nearly 2.75 million have been displaced alone. Monsoon season begins in June and lasts until September. Recent years monsoon rains have correlated with devastating floods and mudslides. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/flooding-assam-nepal-displaces-millions-coronavirus
• Injuries and Deaths. Some 110 Nepalese people were killed and another 100 injured as landslides and flash floods washed or swept away homes, upended roads and bridges and displaced hundreds of others in 26 of the country’s 77 districts, police said.
• Food shortages. As the flood recedes, these communities will face crop shortages, and food will be the next major challenge on everyone’s mind.

Number Four:

Sahel’s arable land is rapidly shrinking. Where will these people go? As grazing lands and crops wither under the unrelenting sun, poverty thrives, and tempers flare. As a result, jihadists rush into the breach, self-defense groups form and deadly violence breaks out.

• Anthropogenic climate change directly affects the Sahelian belt by exacerbating problems such as desertification, drought, and soil erosion. The shrinking of water and land resources due to population growth forces pastoralists to migrate further for longer periods of time, disrupting farmers’ harvest cycles. However, the causal link between climate change and local conflict remains uncertain. Desertification in the Sahel is driven by a combination of human activity and environmental factors and has historically fluctuated between extremes. The impact of climate change on conflict is therefore best framed as a threat multiplier, amplifying existing social and economic conflict drivers.
• Potentially usable arable land in Central Sahel is decreasing each year as a result of global warming. It is also true that the population seeking to use this land has never been so numerous. No one can dispute the devastating effect of droughts on crops and pastures. In reality, however, cultivated areas and agricultural production are increasing in large parts of Central Sahel, as is conflict between herders and farmers.
• Over 15 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance and over 3 million people displaced in the Sahel alone. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/addressing-underlying-factors-of-instability-in-the-sahel

Written by Brendan Hellebusch for Map-Collective.com.