Two Roads diverged in a Yellow Wood
The many roads we can take to mitigate climate change while developing Earth equitably
There are different ways to model how the effects of climate change will play out. This is because there are so many factors-from how much we as a global population will grow over the next decade or two, to how much natural carbon sinks such as the Amazon rainforest will shrink.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies. (1)
The scenarios are:
- SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)
- SSP2: Middle of the Road
- SSP3: Regional Rivalry (A Rocky Road)
- SSP4: Inequality (A Road divided)
- SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development (Taking the Highway)
In creating a reasonable carbon budget across the globe, we have to project out ongoing carbon emissions, as well as deficits and mitigating factors, according to the various scenarios over this timeframe, and prepare for resulting catastrophes along the way.
This year has made many of us well aware that “black swan” events such as COVID19 are a part of our life going forward, and a challenge that we will face as a globe. However, with modeling through the scenarios above, many climate change events are not entirely unpredictable, and we should be able to reasonably prepare for them if we implement coordinated, efficient, proactive measures.
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