The Aquatic Crystal Ball: Decoding the Future of Freshwater in a Shifting Climate
by Angela Pedregal
The following Blog has been developed by one of the participant of the recent MCAA ECS Satellite event on Science Communication.
During the workshop, participants were invited to work on a scientific blog and submit their final piece to be published on the MCAA Blog.
The piece has been revised by a task-force of the MCAA Communication Working Group. Members of the team included: Maria Montefinese, Luisa Merz, Ashish Avasthi, Pradeep Eranti, Nicoleta Spînu, and Ruben Riosa.
Enjoy the piece!
Record low and high temperatures are being noted every year, and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, floods and droughts does not discriminate against any corner of the planet. Among the countless consequences of climate change, the quality and quantity of freshwater is at high risk, potentially affecting our health, our ability to grow food, and even our safety.
With our climate rapidly changing, it would be so helpful to have a crystal ball that could assist us in making better decisions…Well, let me tell you about our “Aquatic Crystal Ball”.
What would you change if you could predict the future?
Many of these climate disasters could be mitigated if we could anticipate and make timely decisions. But is it possible to predict the future? Yes! And we don’t need to be time travelers or fortune tellers to do so. Thanks to the work of many scientists and to advances in technology and computing, a variety of predictive tools have been developed.
Every day we support our decision- making with predictive tools without even realizing it: Do we want to travel for the weekend? Do we need an umbrella to go out? Weather forecasts are available on our phones, computers, or on television and help us make these decisions.
Taking advantage of advanced weather forecasting and the sensitivity of water quality to climate, it is now possible to develop water quality forecasting tools.
These tools integrate climate predictions and impact models to forecast different water parameters such as water temperature, algal blooms, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, pollutants, and many more. These and many other inventive forecasting tools are currently being developed in the Doctoral Network inventWater, an MSCA European Training Network project.
The information obtained with these tools are a valuable resource for the water sector as they help decision-makers, managers, and policymakers to adapt water management to a new climate.
Predicting water quality in Catalunya, Spain
Forecasting tools are very versatile, as they can be built for specific objectives and cases. In my research project, we are developing a predictive tool to forecast DOC concentration in rivers and reservoirs in northeastern Spain. High concentrations of DOC in raw water can generate high concentrations of disinfection by-products in drinking water, which are highly harmful to humans . An important stakeholder of this research is a drinking water company who is interested in applying the tool to make decisions on the operation of their reservoirs and water facility.
For example, estimating what the raw water quality will be like in the next 6 months, helps deciding which dam gate should be opened to extract water with the desired quality. This would ensure not only the quality of drinking water for the population , but also the efficiency of resource management and operations during water treatment.
Although the use of predictive tools is a great alternative to adapt to a new climate, it presents at the same time great challenges during its development, such as:
● Availability of large amounts of data.
● Unprecedented weather variations.
● Lack of participation/commitment of decision- and policymakers.
The larger the community of researchers and stakeholders, the greater the potential of these tools to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water.
The uncertainty of the climate will not stop; are we ready to face it?
