Risk-Reward: The Mental Compass of Fighting Games
Risk-Reward (RR) is the logical basis on which decisions are made in the course of playing Fighting Games. RR is pivotal in dictating how Fighting Games are played, so much so that it dictates whether you should attack, defend, Rushdown, knockdown, reset, zone, play neutral, and guides the overall Metagame. Mortal Kombat XL is more Rushdown oriented compared to Injustice: Gods Among Us which favours Zoning, this is determined by the RR of the Meta. It defines how each game should be played optimally.
Risk in the context of Fighting Games is the likelihood of something undesirable happening.
Risk-Reward in the context of Fighting Games refers to the potential net gain or loss posed by undertaking a particular course of action.
In business, the reward for taking risks is profit while the penalty for unsuccessfully doing so is financial loss. In Fighting Games the risks would include loss of positional or frame advantage, losing a turn, getting whiff punished, loss of resources like meter or taking damage, while the potential rewards would be damage dealt to the opponent, gaining an advantageous position on screen, a knockdown, frame advantage or another turn etc.
In real life there is no such thing as a business without risk, similarly, you cannot effectively play fighting games without taking risks. No guts, no glory! There is however a method to the madness. Some risks are more desirable than others; The more reward gained versus risk exposure the more desirable the action.
Types of Risk
The most common situations are as follows; Note: all examples are in the context of Mortal Kombat 11
A typical Low-Risk Low Reward (LRLR) situation is when you poke your opponent at close range or are throwing projectiles from Fullscreen. You expose yourself to little risk and stand the chance of gaining limited rewards. This is typically an acceptable situation.
A typical Low-Risk High Reward (LRHR) situation is when you use a hit confirm to combo into an unsafe(very punishable)Fatal Blow(Super move). You expose yourself to little risk and stand the chance of reaping a huge reward. This is by far the most desirable situation.
A High-Risk High Reward (HRHR) situation is a gamble plain and simple! You expose yourself to high risk for the sake of a potentially high reward. It is only acceptable in some peculiar situations, for instance, gambling on Wakeup Fatal Blow(Super Move) to win a match when you are one touch away from death.
A High-Risk Low Reward (HRLR) situation is absolutely undesirable and should be avoided. Throwing a punishable projectile at point blank range to deal 10% potential damage on your opponent while risking 40% damage against yourself if you fail (and are punished).
Though your personal risk appetite will to some extent influence your perception (such that Player A may consider HRHR situation as desirable, player B may consider it unfavourable). As much as possible your decisions should be based on logical consideration of RR in line with your overall goals such that you get the best outcome. These inherent risks and their consequences can be (and are) addressed in the following ways.
Note: U=Up, D=Down, F=Forward, B=Back xx=Cancel Playstation Controller buttons; 1=Square, 2=Triangle, 3= X, 4=Circle
Risk Mitigation Strategy
Avoid the Risk altogether. It may be in your best interest to avoid certain actions and tools completely if you hope to win. You won’t find any Jade player activating Dodging Shadow (the projectile invincible glow) at point-blank range (it has 44 recovery frames) because it is extremely punishable at that range rather they would only activate at far range when they are at frame advantage.
Take the risk in order to pursue a reward. Sometimes you just have to take the leap of faith; you have to “jump” in and test the waters with two feet, literally. Jump-ins or dive kicks for instance expose you to a lot of risks (You can be anti-aired, flawless blocked, or simply just blocked and punished) but the potential reward is worth it. This is why Kung Lao players, in particular, spend half the time airborne despite the fact that most of Kung Laos options are extremely punishable but by virtue of his design (being a HRHR character) that’s just how he rolls!
As a Kung Lao player you just have to pull the trigger to play the character effectively, you can’t play safe all the time. If you do, you wont play optimally.
Retain risk by informed decision. You can choose to play a very safe and turtle playstyle but the danger is that you become very predictable. Taking risks is not a bad thing especially when they are based on informed and measured considerations. It enhances your strategy by making you difficult to predict. Liu Kang’s F43U3 can be interrupted and combo punished by virtually the whole cast but that doesn’t make it a bad tool. Rather it is one of his best tools. You must ask yourself, how often has my opponent actually punished me for using this string? When i was punished what did I lose? When I capitalized on the string what did I gain? If on a match to match basis you have net positive outcomes then go ahead and continue to abuse the string!
Change the consequences or likelihood. Option Select! Kotal Kahn can cancel his D1 to Command Grab on block for good damage, but if the D1 hits the opponent, the C.Grab Whiffs offering the Opponent an easy punish. To remedy this Kotal Kahn can Option Select this by delaying the input of the C.Grab so it doesn’t come out if the D1 hits the Opponent! This completely changes the consequence of attempting D1xxC.Grab. Also, Liu Kang’s F43U3 can both be interrupted and Flawless blocked, regardless, It is not a straitjacket tool that must be used in one particular way. Liu Kang has multiple options off this string; F4,Throw/ F4, F43U3/F43xx Low Fireball /xx Low Fireball Amp/xx Bicycle Kick/xx Flying D. Kick/xx Dragon Parry/xx Block, etc. By introducing these options the Opponent has a lot more to worry about (they have to “pick their poison”), reducing the likelihood of you getting punished (at least optimally) thereby changing your overall risk exposure.
Eliminate the risk source. This approach might be the most desirable option in dealing with risks though it is not possible in all scenarios. This is what you do every time you hit confirm a string or Fatal Blow. Take Shao Kahn’s F3xxShouder charge or Kotal Kahns F12xxKahn-Cut, if you cancel the strings straight into special move (Shoulder charge/Khan-Cut) and it’s blocked, you can be punished heavily. To eliminate this risk source completely you hit confirm the F3 or F12 before committing to the Shoulder Charge/Kahn-Cut thereby reducing your risk of getting punished to zero!
The Joker equally has a unique way of eliminating risk by ending his blocked strings with CCDDEGEC which resets his position to Neutral.
While being guided logically by hard facts and numbers, note that there are extenuating factors/circumstances which can tip the scales either way; Factors like Habit, time period in the match, Opponent ability, resources like Life bar, Meter, Fatal Blow, and other psychological factors. The likelihood of any of the risks ever coming to fruition is greatly influenced by factors mentioned above; as such they should be considered while evaluating in-game situations. The Scenario below shows how the true picture of a situation can easily be misread without careful evaluation of all factors.
Risk Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scorpion uses Teleport Amp to surprise the opponent. If successful scorpion bags 25% damage, if its block punished he could lose up to 25% damage. This looks like a High-Risk High Reward situation at first glance. Now let’s add some external factors to the equation.
Scenario 1 + Other Factors
- Scorpion has defensive meter to breakout if punished. Now damage risked is 5% for a Reward of 25% if successful. The situation is actually Low-Risk High Reward.
- The Opponent has 90% health and no defensive meter, Scorpion has no defensive meter and 25% health. The situation is actually High-Risk Low Reward.
- The Opponent has consistently block punished Teleport Amp 3 times in a row, Scorpion now has full defensive meter to breakout if punished. The situation is now Low-Risk Low Reward.
- The Opponent has 25% health, no defensive meter, and has consistently block punished Teleport Amp 6 times with D1 (2% damage) while Scorpion has 20% health and no defensive meter to breakout if punished. The situation is now Low-Risk High Reward.
- The Opponent has 24% health and has consistently block punished Teleport Amp 6 times with D1 (2% damage) while Scorpion has 25% health and there are 5 seconds to go on the match timer. This situation is definitely High-risk Low Reward.
As a rule of thumb, precautions taken should match the consequences of risks. As a point of note, it is impractical to cover every possible risk in a situation (your Opponents options) from an offensive or defensive standpoint. You have to prioritize and remedy only the highest consequence and most likely risks (Top 2-3) and accept the consequences of the rest. When making decisions in Fighting Games ensure your Mental Compass is fine-tuned and guided by a holistic evaluation of all the facts, logical, situational, and psychological, in order to guarantee the most optimal outcome in any scenario. Happy hunting.
