How to Ruin the Monty Hall Problem
Why is it so easy to get this wrong?
I'm trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You're the one that has to walk through it.
- Morpheus (The Matrix)
You’ve made it! You are on Let’s Make a Deal and you now have a chance at the grand prize. Three doors are before you. Monty Hall looks you straight in the eye and says:
“Look. You know how this works. One door conceals the grand prize. The other two are duds. You pick a door. I open one of the other doors, reveal a dud prize, then give you a chance to switch.
“Let’s shake things up. You can choose two doors. If the grand prize is behind either of those two doors, you win.
“Or, you can choose any single door, and you have to stick with it. Deal?”