Trump & the Bandwagon Effect
He’s a winner. He beats people. He’s ahead in the polls and there’s no end in sight.
At least, that’s what he tells people. Donald Trump’s primary campaign platform is that he is popular and that the other candidates are losers. His rhetoric in every GOP debate thus far is that he alone will emerge triumphant, and in so doing manages to sidestep talking about his political positions or governmental strategies. Every. Time.
And it appears to be working. Why? Is it really that Republican party members are delusional enough to truly want a bully and a liar as the next commander in chief? Can the political atmosphere be so desperate as to support a self-proclaimed “outsider” to the race, even if that means nominating a xenophobic and unqualified candidate?
I’m not that cynical.
Brian Balogh, a professor who has written about Trump and co-hosts a podcast show called BackStory with the American History Guys, wrote that “Trump has invested in the name in terms of branding — the millions of dollars, the time, the advertising, the promotion, and as my piece suggested, now the effort in running for president — that makes the name.”
Trump’s personal brand is what makes him a powerful, albeit scary, political force in the 2016 presidential race. The sheer amount of money he has spent developing the name into a synonym for success has proven to be his ace, which overpowers the actual reality of his business career. His popularity and self-promoting strategy are essential in gaining the support of voters.
Because he tells people — loudly and repeatedly — that he is the best, people are buying into it. This bandwagon effect (that people tend to change their views based on what they see as the majority opinion in the news media) has taken off.
It’s no doubt that the constant media coverage Trump gets for his outrageous claims and nasty bites at other candidates has helped his candidacy. He is written about so often that his views have started to sound like the majority opinion of Republicans, as opposed to the far less-covered views of Cruz or Rubio.
Nate Silver’s data journalism site, FiveThirtyEight, wrote that “Trump’s standing in the polls substantially reflects the disproportionate amount of media coverage he’s receiving.”
It’s a popularity contest, and Trump has been given the loudest microphone to spread his ideas. This voice of his warped, personal minority has become a dangerous phenomenon that’s spreading across the country.
After the results of Super Tuesday, many fear Trump will collect enough delegates to win the Republican nomination.
But because his rising influence depends solely on the unstable opinion of the masses, there’s hope that a dip in popularity or voting results will bring his false empire crashing down.
Trump reminds us at every turn that he wins and everyone else loses. I hope his followers come to realize that if he is elected, this truly will be the case.
