Fault Tolerant Episode #5: TA
In this episode Arthur Buczynski and I talk technical analysis and current market conditions. Art explains how some TA indicators are pointing to an end of the bear market. I give the skeptic’s perspective on the efficacy of TA, and give my opinion on some fundamentals that on the part of Ethereum and DeFi that might help end the bear market.
“People think the Bitcoin market-cycle is every 4 years, however that’s not really the case. It seems to get longer and longer… The first bull run was 47 weeks, the next one was 129 weeks the third one was 211 weeks.
[based on the chart below] If we project into the future the peak of the next bull run is expected in Aug. 2023 with $140K/BTC.”— Arthur
“Typically when you’re looking at ichimoku cloud what you’re looking for is you want the cloud to be twisting green, you want price to break out of the cloud, and you also want this bullish cross — and you want lagging span, which is that green line following price to be above the cloud.”— Arthur
“Putting on my skeptic’s hat… I’m kind of undecided on how useful I think TA is. I don’t think you could ever expect it to work perfectly or algorithmically, because if it did people would exploit that and the edge would go away…
If you take a large group of people and they all just do random stuff, you’ll always be able to pick out one person who has done really well.” — Jordan
