Survivorship Bias: Why Anecdotal Longevity Tips Fail to Tell the Whole Story

Debunking the Myths

Image By Author Using DALL·E 2024

It is shocking to be in front of a centenary. Curiosity invades us, and we first ask: “What is the key to living so long?”

Some say it is because he has smoked all his life; others say it is due to his favorite food, from salads, wine every day, and even a good T-bone Steak every day.

Logically, this is an anecdote which has no basis in reality.

Longevity and the work of World War II statisticians

World War II statisticians analyzed bombers that had survived a shoot-down by enemy fire.

They analyzed the impacts on the fuselage of the plane. They concluded that it was very probable that the bombings that had arrived at their origin had not received lethal impacts in the unscathed areas.

Those who did not manage to return received him precisely in these areas. Therefore, it was necessary to add armor to places that were not damaged on the returned planes.

Survivor bias. The red dots show bullet damage to non-critical areas of the plane, suggesting that planes that were hit in critical areas (such as the engine and cockpit) did not return. It helps to understand how focusing only on successful cases, can lead to erroneous conclusions.