Member-only story
Survivorship Bias: Why Anecdotal Longevity Tips Fail to Tell the Whole Story
Debunking the Myths
It is shocking to be in front of a centenary. Curiosity invades us, and we first ask: “What is the key to living so long?”
Some say it is because he has smoked all his life; others say it is due to his favorite food, from salads, wine every day, and even a good T-bone Steak every day.
Logically, this is an anecdote which has no basis in reality.
Longevity and the work of World War II statisticians
World War II statisticians analyzed bombers that had survived a shoot-down by enemy fire.
They analyzed the impacts on the fuselage of the plane. They concluded that it was very probable that the bombings that had arrived at their origin had not received lethal impacts in the unscathed areas.
Those who did not manage to return received him precisely in these areas. Therefore, it was necessary to add armor to places that were not damaged on the returned planes.
This phenomenon is known as survivorship bias, a cognitive and statistical bias introduced by counting only those who are available to count but ignoring those who have not survived.
Thus, it is likely that when we interview a long-lived centenarian who has smoked all his life or has drunk wine since he was young, he will attribute his longevity to cigarettes or liquor.
When in reality, many of his contemporaries died from diseases derived from alcohol and cigarettes, whether cancer, respiratory, liver, or lung problems.
That applies to people like Steve Jobs or Bill Gates, who did not finish a university degree but succeeded far above those who obtained a postgraduate degree and a doctorate. This means that going to university does not always ensure success, and leading a healthy life does not necessarily guarantee longevity.
However, it’s important to note that those who invest in education and work diligently are more likely to…
