A Pressing Issue

We’ve written about the vinyl industry once before in 2017 at which point vinyl had exhibited a double digit revenue growth spurt. In the four years that have elapsed since, the vinyl industry hit yet another milestone; in 2021 U.S. vinyl revenues grew 61% year over year, exceeding $1B in revenue for the first time since 1986. Still a very small portion of the music industry (physical accounted for 11% of U.S. revenues in 2021, 7% of which were vinyl [RIAA]), the vinyl industry is a fascinating microcosm to explore as metaphor for the larger recorded music industry.

Plagued with production delays in part as a result of covid19, it’s rumored that major labels are providing the limited number of vinyl pressing plants with large advances to focus production time on pressing only their inventory (Adele’s pressing of 500,000 copies of “30” was rumored to have created a massive backlog). Add to an already bogged down process (during vinyls heyday, presses focused on pressing large quantities of select releases to what’s now the inverse — presses are in demand for a limited run across thousands of releases) and the outcome is a pressure cooker of demand and not nearly enough supply to fill it.

Be it actual real advances by the majors, or privately owned pressing plants acting in their own best interest (choosing to fill demand with larger quantities of one product), the outcome is clear in either case. Capacity is being filled by the cream of the crop, with less developed artists having to bear the brunt of excessive product delays.

At this point it goes without being said that the disintermediation of the music industry has seen a power shift in favor of the creator, giving more power to the independent musician than ever before. And yet, evidenced by the current vinyl dilemma — it begs the question of when we’ll truly see an inflection point in the industry measured by revenue rather than by headlines.