Could RCS and Android Messages make WhatsApp the new Myspace?

Whilst WhatsApp is the undisputed messaging champion across much of the world, there comes a new threat with the emergence of Google’s latest foray into messaging. After losing the head-to-head battle against OTTs with a range of messaging apps, Google is now taking a different approach. They now aim to have carriers install Android Messages as their default SMS client — a powerful notion when you consider that with the addition of the latest 27 carriers to adopt RCS, the number of subscribers now potentially covered by Android Messages is over 1 billion globally.

Whilst Facebook has happily kept WhatsApp clear of ads (simply monetizing by consuming user data for more targeted Facebook ads), Google has incorporated a coveted Rich Layer of enhanced enterprise messaging via their JIBE platform. In short, this means that the carriers themselves are given extra revenue incentive to install Google’s SMS clients. It is yet to be seen if Google will also capture messaging data to incorporate and enhance their Adwords offering — at this stage I believe they’re just happy to give their users an alternative option to iMessage.

But, we get ahead of ourselves. Either or both of the two events below need to happen for Android Messages to unseat the now incumbent OTTs.

1. Carriers need to realise that they are competing against an already rich product with deep penetration that is free — the impressive list of RCS features on its own is not enough to move users off their chat apps. Pricing RCS like traditional SMS would be its downfall. It needs to be free, or, at most, unlimited within the non-defunct SMS bundles. The 20c SMS rates of old are never coming back no matter what the channel can do.
2. If Apple adopts the universal profile and integrates iMessage, RCS wins. It is unlikely, but who knows? RCS is not a new technology but rather a standard for an existing technology, in part created by the GSMA. This 3rd party ownership of the RCS profile allows for arm’s length collaboration with each juggernaut without either losing face. Creating a great user experience and sinking FB’s golden gooses (WhatsApp) may just be worth enabling a more competitive Android.

So with all that being said, will WhatsApp become a forgotten technology of years gone by? At this stage, it is unlikely. But remember: IF your native SMS app was free and full of features, would you have ever moved away in the first place? Probably not! This is what Google is banking on as it ships more Android devices to new users.

Are you at MWC’17? Come by the MessageBird stand for a chat about RCS! We are part of Google’s Early Access Programme to RCS.