Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Statistics say ‘Yes’ — but some experts think we could be approaching the limit.
Background:
At a distance of 42.195km, the marathon is one of humanities ultimate tests of endurance. In the early 1900s, the quickest times to run it was 2hr: 50minutes. Over the next few decades, athletes took 40-minutes off the world record. Then in 1967, the 2hr:10min barrier was broken and progress slowed..alot.
The world record today is 2hr:02min.57sec set by Kenyan runner Dennis Kimetto at the 2014 Berlin Marathon. Over the last 47 years, just 7minutes has been taken off the world record time.
The Question:
Under current International Association of Athletics Federations marathon rules, is it possible for someone to run the marathon in less than 2-hours? If so, when do sports physiologists and performance experts predict the 2-hr barrier to be broken? Thanks..
The Metafact Expert Consensus so far:
Yes +86%. (6/7 answered ‘Yes’) as of July 24, 2018
Insights from experts who answered “Likely” or above
Dr Rodger Kram, Expert in physiology and biomechanics of running at University of Colorado: If a race were to be organized, like Nike’s Breaking2, with elite human runners as pacers/windbreakers on a course shielded from wind (and with a tailwind for second half), the best 2:03 marathoners of today could run < 2:00… (See full answer)
Dr Ross Tucker, Exercise Physiologist & Sport Scientist, Cape Town: I think that a sub-2 is definitely feasible yes. But it’s not imminent, which is the claim that has been made and which I would dispute. Nike have shown that you can even bypass the time barrier if you set up a contrived race where no barrier to performance exists other than physiology. In the real world, however, there are barriers to performance and they mean that the current improvement needed of just under 3 minutes is quite a long way off.
However, there is no physiological or other theoretical reason to suggest that the time is not possible.So yes, it’s feasible, but it will require a few more generations of athletes to get to it. If each generation can improve on the previous one by 30 seconds, then we are four to five generations away, and that is 20 to 25 years. That’s a lot to assume — there will be weaker generations, or generations where the conditions don’t line up perfectly, and which then miss the chance. So that’s why my estimate would be 30 to 35 years, and then we will see a sub-2 hour marathon… (see full answer)
Dr Simon Angus, Complex Systems Scientist from Monash University: If one assumes that the systematic factors leading to the decline in marathon World Record (WR) times since 1950 are unchanged, then a (robust) statistical analysis of the data would indicate a crossing point with 2 hours in the year 2033, with a 95% confidence interval of 2026 to 2040.
Can we expect such factors to continue? Yes. Finding time gains in the marathon WR arise from various channels including:
The expansion of the genetic pool of individuals who might compete in long distance running and so be identified for further training (the pool expands with alleviation of poverty, improvements in communications and institutions etc.);
-Sports science discovery in the areas of training, nutrition, and pacing;
-Technological advance in the areas of clothing, footwear and data-gathering/measuring devices and analysis; and
-Psychological training/preparation of athletes (mental skills in handling extreme pain, performance anxiety, etc.).
None of these channels appear exhausted. (See full answer)
Insights from experts who answered “Unlikely” or below
Dr Timo Vuorimaa, Exercise Physiologist at Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences, Finland: Yes, but not before a big development step on shorter distances. Recently, several record extrapolations have been published based on marathon records over the past 20–30 years. These extrapolations show that the 2 h barrier will likely be achieved in around the year 2030–2035, if the world record progression will be the same as during the last 20 years. However, it is questionable if it will be.
One challenge is the speed reserve related running economy. To run economically over long distances a runner must have speed reserve. In other words, clearly faster running speeds on shorter distances. But, how much faster?
There are top marathon runners who came from shorter distances and there are top runners who have concentrated on marathon since junior age. Thus, it is difficult to evaluate how much speed reserve each top runner has had when doing his best marathon performance. Instead of this we can look at the big picture.
If we look at the past marathon records and the records on long track races we can see that between the years 1980–1995 the 5000m world record pace (6.36 -6.54 m/s) has been from 15.2 to 15.9 % faster than the marathon world record pace (5.49–5.54 m/s) at the same year. In 2005 the same difference was 17.4 % (6.61 vs 5.63 m/s). In 2015 (and now) the difference is again 15.4 % (6.61 vs 5.72 m/s). Thus, to keep this big picture in balance the difference between the top marathon pace and the 5000m race pace should be ~15 % or bigger. [To reach a] 2 h marathon this means that the world top pace at 5000m should be 12:22 or better. This sounds very unlikely in next future…(see full answer)
This fact-check and expert answers originally published at metafact.io.
