Metaphysical Musings — #3 Beliefs & Decisions
We all have our own set of strongly held beliefs. The beliefs we hold at the present has a significant impact on our future. Out of all sorts of beliefs that we have, there are these strongly held beliefs of ours that often have a strong influence on our decision-making process, the complexity of life, mood, and social circle. (When I say belief, I mean the things that often are accepted by us without complete proof).
How we shape our opinions?
Well… It can be shown with the example of a “Block Diagram” often used in Process Control (A topic often taught in multiple engineering disciplines).
Let us look at a really simple block diagram :
The block diagram above has certain elements to it. The incoming Reference Input which is nothing but the reference or set-value (desired output level). There is an output which is measured through feedback elements and is compared with the set-point. The circle with +/- sign on it represents a comparison of the set value and the feedback. The “gap” between the two causes control action(s) carried out by the control element(s) which are implemented in the plant. The output gets affected by external (as well as internal) disturbances. Each of the boxes denotes a transformation from the information coming to the box and exiting the box. The output is not directly compared but is going through certain feedback elements that make it “suitable” for comparison.
Now think that the there is one particular event in your life and you want some result out of it. The set-point value is your expected/desired result. The feedback comes from the outside world i.e. then processed in your head & a part of the control is being taken care by you (other external factors may also act as control elements (Why?)).
That’s how most of us function, right? We take a decision to control the “results” and then, the closeness of the results to what we desire affects our next decision. But, as we grow wiser we become better at enlisting the things that are causing a disturbance in our desired result. So, why not deal with them beforehand? That is exactly the feed-forward control scheme. See it for yourself!
So coming back to the topic of conviction bring us to the question — How do the convictions get formed?
Well, the decision making process is clear from the (highly simplified) block diagrams. It is still incomplete. As I said, that is how it should be.
In reality, these decisions or choices are also influenced by our beliefs. But the block diagram just gives a sort of “correction” mechanism where we start with a decision and change it according to deviation from the “target”.
Then what was our first decision based on? Many would say — “Past Experience”. But if we keep tracing this back then the birth of our decision-cone should be based on some initial set of beliefs. That is exactly how the world works, there are certain things that have no proof (even in science and mathematics). So, there is no possibility of a realistic decision-cone without a belief-basis. There are multiple decision cones like this that have a belief-basis and then the control-part (coupled with belief part) works to rectifies these decisions.
Here comes a trade-off: The more the number of beliefs that we have, the lesser is the complexity of our life. If they are less then we have fewer things to worry about (at least during the decision-making process). But again, a higher number of beliefs will usually increase the uncertainty in our decisions.
Those beliefs which -
(i) Consistently yield desired results, (ii) Reduce the complexity of our lives and (iii) Gain acceptance in the society; are usually the ones that turn into conviction. But the points (i),(ii), (iii) and other properties of a belief that may turn it into a conviction usually do not individually follow similar trends and this often turns it into an optimization problem in itself.
According to me, a small number of strongly held beliefs or in other words, a minimal conviction-set would be something we should be aiming for in order to allow more room for the “control-based” flexibility. But the number shouldn’t be so small that the complexity induced by all this flexibility causes us to lose time for taking action.
Is it this simple ? No.
“The reality is super-complicated. Although this model seems to fit well, a close look will reveal multiple assumptions that need to be incorporated. I know this explanation is incomplete, but it is something that could get one started with this sort of thinking.”
